Small Craft Advisory 18, NWS Buffalo, NY

163 
WHUS71 KBUF 160131
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
831 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

LOZ042-160945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.180216T1800Z-180217T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
831 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-160945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.180216T1800Z-180217T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
831 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO
1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-160945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.180216T1800Z-180217T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
831 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO
4 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

550 
WHUS71 KBUF 160554
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1254 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

LOZ042-161400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.180216T1800Z-180217T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1254 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-161400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.180216T1800Z-180217T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1254 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-161400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.180216T1800Z-180217T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1254 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

376 
WHUS71 KBUF 160914
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
414 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

LOZ042-161715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.180216T1800Z-180217T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
414 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-161715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.180216T1800Z-180217T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
414 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-161715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.180216T1800Z-180217T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
414 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

733 
WHUS71 KBUF 161511
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1011 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

LOZ042-162315-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.180216T1800Z-180217T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1011 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-162315-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.180216T1800Z-180217T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1011 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-162315-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.180216T1800Z-180217T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1011 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

736 
WHUS71 KBUF 162113
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
413 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

LOZ042-170300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180217T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
413 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-170515-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180217T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
413 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-170515-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180217T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
413 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

822 
WHUS71 KBUF 162345
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
645 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

LOZ045-170600-
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180217T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
645 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect until 1 AM EST Saturday.

* WINDS...Northwest to 30 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-170600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180217T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
645 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-170745-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180217T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
645 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-170745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180217T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
645 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest to 30 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Church

473 
WHUS71 KBUF 170602
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
102 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

LOZ042-045-170715-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180217T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
102 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

LOZ043-044-170900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180217T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
102 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

744 
WHUS71 KBUF 170902
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
402 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

LOZ043-044-171015-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-180217T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
402 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1021 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A southerly flow will continue to provide Western New York with a
warming trend through today. The result will be some fog and drizzle
due to the warm air over the snowpack. A warm front will move in
later today with chances of rain showers increasing during the
afternoon and evening. A cold front will cross our region tonight
with rain changing to snow Friday, followed by cooler weather for
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mild temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s late this morning with
dewpoints running in the upper 40s under southwest flow. Much of the
fog has dissipated leaving low clouds and patchy drizzle ahead of an
approaching warm front. Any lingering fog is limited to the eastern
end of Lake Erie right along the lake shore as the warm air moves
over the ice-covered lake and is advected onto the adjoining
lakeshore.

A surface warm front lies just south of NY state late this morning
with a large area of mid to upper 50s and some 60s south of the
boundary over Ohio and PA. The front is expected to push north
across the region through today. Temperatures will push into the low
to mid 50s within the warm sector for most locations south of Lake
Ontario. Southwest winds are 15-25 and gust to 40 mph east of the
lakes. Otherwise, look for just some patches of drizzle until
chances for rain increase late in the day. The warm temperatures and
expected rain tonight has led to a Flood Watch for potential ice jam
development. This runs from mid afternoon today to mid-afternoon
Friday. More details in the Hydrology section below.

Tonight, next frontal wave passes through the Ohio River Valley.
Highest model QPF looks to remain south of the area, but models do
show a sizable area of western New York getting impacted by the
northern edge of the rain shield. Bulk of the rain looks to occur
within a window from about 00z to 09z ahead of an approaching
cold front, with rainfall amounts generally a quarter to half
inch. Colder air oozing in behind the cold front will start to
transition the precipitation to a mix towards Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be through the North Country Friday morning. Cold
air advection will have started across the region Friday morning
with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s dropping to the upper 20s
by Friday afternoon. Showers will linger behind the surface front
Friday with rain showers becoming snow showers by midday. A
shortwave trough axis will swing across the region Friday with the
best forcing near the North Country. Snow showers are expected and
will end with lake effect snow showers into Friday night. An inch or
two of snow accumulation is possible across Wayne, N Cayuga and
Oswego counties as well as on the Tug Hill Plateau through Friday
night. Off Lake Erie, a brief period of orographic lift behind the
surface cold front Friday will produce rain and snow showers.
Minimal lake effect is expected downwind of Lake Erie due to a
almost frozen lake. Up to an inch of accumulation is expected across
the higher terrain of the Southern Tier.

High pressure will quickly move by the region late Friday night and
Saturday. Upstream activity will lead to cloudy conditions Saturday
while the region stays dry. Winds will become southerly Saturday and
due to the clouds, temperatures will stay cool in the 30s. A cold
front will move into the western Great Lakes Saturday night while
high pressure moves off the New England coast. An upper level trough
with multiple embedded disturbances will cross the region Saturday
night and Sunday. Low pressure will deepen off the Mid-Atlantic
region during this time and although the best forcing will be
confined with the coastal low, the precipitation shield may enter
the Southern Tier Saturday night. The cold front will cross the
region Sunday however with its parent low moving quickly northward,
the front will most likely become diffuse across the region. High
pressure will be the main player Sunday with a few snow showers
across the North Country during this time. High temperatures in the
U30S/L40 expected on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Moving on into next week...a significant shift to a period of milder
and wetter weather still appears to be in store for at least the
first half of next week...if not a little bit longer. The impetus
for this change will be provided by a deepening longwave trough
across the western half of North America...which will help encourage
the significant amplification/northward expansion of subtropical
ridging across the eastern CONUS. As a result of these
developments... increasingly milder GOMEX-based air will be pumped
northeastward across the eastern half of the country...resulting in
both rising temperatures for our area as well as the development of
a strengthening baroclinic zone extending from the central and
southern Plains states northeastward to the Great Lakes and southern
Ontario/Quebec Provinces. Several pieces of energy ejecting from the
longwave trough will ride northeastward along this frontal zone and
force the development of one or more attendant waves of low pressure
that will pass by to our northwest...thereby enhancing the influx of
milder air/moisture and bringing periodic opportunities for (mostly)
rain showers to our region in the process.

Model guidance is slowly agreeing on the potential for an axis of
heavy rainfall across the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys Tuesday-
Wednesday. This axis may reach as far north as Western New York.

With the above in mind in conjunction with the usual variances seen
amongst the models this far out in advance...for now have simply
broadbrushed high chance to lower-end likely PoPs for showers in the
Monday-Wednesday time frame...and have maintained well above normal
temperatures in the 40s/50s by day and the mid 30s to lower 40s at
night. This said...it is definitely not out of the question that we
could get even warmer than this Tuesday and/or Wednesday should some
of the warmer model guidance (most notably the consistently warm
ECMWF) manage to verify...stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR and IFR cigs with patchy drizzle will continue through much of
today as a warm front sits just south of the area. This front will
lift north this afternoon, with a brief improvement in ceilings.
Southwest winds will continue to gust to 30 knots especially east of
the lakes today. Low pressure with a cold front will track across
the region tonight, with a return of IFR at most sites with
widespread rain moving into WNY toward 00z Friday. Colder air moving
in late tonight into Friday will lead to a possible mix with or
change to snow toward 12z Friday.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow.
Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night...chance of snow and IFR.

Sunday and Monday...Chance of MVFR/IFR with chance of -SHRASN.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will shift north across the eastern Great Lakes today.
Southwest winds have freshened to 15-20 knots. Winds will relax
tonight as a cold front begins to shift eastward. Behind the front,
elevated winds and likely advisory level waves are forecast Friday
under westerly flow. Winds/waves are expected to relax this weekend
with high pressure building across the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood watch remains for a portion of Western New York for a
risk of both ice jam flooding and river flooding. A period of
warm weather will last through this evening, resulting in a
significant amount of snow melt in the Buffalo Creeks and the
Allegheny River basins. Based on the latest forecast, thawing
degree hours will reach between 400 and 600 in these areas
which suggests there is a risk for ice jams. Ice on the Buffalo
creeks is patchy, but probably minimally ample to support some
issues. Because the ice is relatively thin, ice is likely to
break up rather quickly and also may flush out quickly too given
there will be less ice than earlier in the season. This still
poses a risk for ice jam flooding in the typically vulnerable
locations.

Following the warm temperatures, a period rain is expected
tonight. There is considerably uncertainty with this aspect of
the event, with a consensus supporting between a quarter and a
half inch. However, there is a significant number of ensemble
members and model runs which suggest there will be more rain,
perhaps up to an inch in the watch area. Expect any basin
averages in excess of a half inch will push forecast points to
above action stage or even flood stage when combined with run-
off from snow melt. This uncertainty is reflected in MMEFS
ensemble guidance which shows a wide range of crest levels based
on differences in the QPF.

For the Genesee River basin the risk depends on how much rain
falls and given the uncertainty there is not enough confidence
to issue a watch at this point. Temperatures in the Black River
basin will be cooler and there will be less rain there so a
watch is unlikely to be needed for that basin.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch from 3 PM EST this afternoon through Friday
     afternoon for NYZ010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK/JJR
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
521 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

NYZ006>008-161030-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
521 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010>012-019>021-085-161030-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
521 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible on today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>005-013-014-161030-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
521 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible today.

Warmer weather will continue today and melt much of the snow pack in
place, and this combined with some light rain will cause area creeks
and rivers to rise late today and Friday. This may result in a few
ice jams. There is also a small chance a few waterways will approach
flood stage, depending on how much rain falls and how warm it gets.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The risk of ice jam flooding continues through Friday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-161030-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
521 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
805 AM EST THU FEB 15 2018

NYZ010-085-151400-
Southern Erie-Northern Erie-
805 AM EST THU FEB 15 2018

...LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO IMPACT THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NEAR DOWNTOWN
BUFFALO FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...

Area webcams show locally dense fog along the Lake Erie shoreline,
resulting in reduced visibility along stretches of the I-190 and
route 5 corridor from downtown Buffalo south into Lackawanna. Watch
for rapidly changing visibility conditions as you approach the Lake
Erie shoreline. Please adjust your driving speed and following
distance to the conditions, and allow extra time if heading into
downtown.

LAT...LON 4292 7890 4293 7891 4293 7890 4294 7889
      4295 7885 4276 7878 4275 7888 4281 7893
      4284 7893
TIME...MOT...LOC 1259Z 240DEG 49KT 4288 7885

Church