Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2018

Flood Watch 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

April 13, 201816 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Apr 13, 2018, 3:04 PM EDT for 16 counties in New York. It took effect at Apr 16, 2018, 1:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 13 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 13, 2018, 3:04 PM EDT (19:04 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 16, 2018, 1:00 AM EDT
Expired
Apr 16, 2018, 1:44 PM EDT
In force
13 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Flood severity
None

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-04-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-04-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 141 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1062 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
81 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
141 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
262 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

620 
WGUS61 KBUF 131904
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
304 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-140315-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T0500Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
304 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Flood Watch for western New York and the Genesee Valley.

* From late Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon.

* Moderate to heavy rain of 2 to 2.5 inches may result in 
  considerable runoff into area creeks and rivers.

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas, and
  urban areas may see flooding problems develop as soon as early
  Monday morning. However, larger streams and rivers will take
  longer to respond with flooding possible later Monday into
  Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-140315-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T1100Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
304 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Flood Watch for Eastern Lake Ontario region and the Northern
  Finger Lakes.

* From Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* Warmer temperatures resulting in snow melt from the Tug Hill and
  western Adirondacks, combined with moderate to heavy rainfall of
  2 to 2.5 inches on Monday may result in considerable runoff 
  into area creeks and rivers.

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas, and
  urban areas may see flooding problems develop as soon as Monday
  morning. However, larger streams and rivers, especially the
  Black River, will take longer to respond with flooding possible
  later Monday into Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Church
12 follow-up statements
377 
WGUS61 KBUF 140152
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
952 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018


NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-141000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T0500Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
952 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee... 
  Livingston...Monroe...Niagara...Northern Erie...Orleans... 
  Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From late Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon.

* Moderate to heavy rain of 2 to 2.5 inches will result in 
  considerable runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas may
  experience flooding Sunday night through Monday. Larger streams
  and rivers will take longer to respond with flooding possible 
  later Monday into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-141000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T1100Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
952 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Jefferson...Lewis...
   Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York...Ontario and 
  Wayne. 

* From Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* Warmer temperatures resulting in snow melt from the Tug Hill and
  western Adirondacks, combined with moderate to heavy rainfall of
  2 to 2.5 inches on Monday will result in considerable runoff 
  into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas may
  experience flooding Monday. Larger streams and rivers will take
  longer to respond with flooding possible later Monday night 
  into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
285 
WGUS61 KBUF 140830
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
430 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018


NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-141630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T0500Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
430 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee... 
  Livingston...Monroe...Niagara...Northern Erie...Orleans... 
  Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From late Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon.

* Moderate to heavy rain of 2.0 to 2.5 inches will result in 
  considerable runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas 
  may experience flooding Sunday night through Monday. Larger 
  streams and rivers will take longer to respond with flooding 
  possible later Monday into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-141630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T1100Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
430 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the
  following counties...in central New York...Jefferson...Lewis...Northern
  Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York...Ontario and Wayne. 

* From Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* Warmer temperatures resulting in snow melt from the Tug Hill 
  and western Adirondacks, combined with moderate to heavy 
  rainfall of 2.0 to 2.5 inches on Monday will result in 
  considerable runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas 
  may experience flooding Monday. Larger streams and rivers will 
  take longer to respond with flooding possible later Monday 
  night into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Thomas
342 
WGUS61 KBUF 141335
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
935 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018


NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-142145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T0500Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
935 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee... 
  Livingston...Monroe...Niagara...Northern Erie...Orleans... 
  Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From late Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon.

* Moderate to heavy rain of 2.0 to 2.5 inches will result in 
  considerable runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas 
  may experience flooding Sunday night through Monday. Larger 
  streams and rivers will take longer to respond with flooding 
  possible later Monday into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-142145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T1100Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
935 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Jefferson...Lewis...
   Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York...Ontario and 
  Wayne. 

* From Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* Warmer temperatures resulting in snow melt from the Tug Hill 
  and western Adirondacks, combined with moderate to heavy 
  rainfall of 2.0 to 2.5 inches on Monday will result in 
  considerable runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas 
  may experience flooding Monday. Larger streams and rivers will 
  take longer to respond with flooding possible later Monday 
  night into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
663 
WGUS61 KBUF 141914
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
314 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018


NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-150315-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T0500Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
314 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee... 
  Livingston...Monroe...Niagara...Northern Erie...Orleans... 
  Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From late Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon.

* Moderate to heavy rain of 2 to 3 inches will result in 
  considerable runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas 
  may experience flooding Sunday night through Monday. Larger 
  streams and rivers will take longer to respond with flooding 
  possible later Monday into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-150315-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T1100Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
314 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Jefferson...Lewis...
   Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York...Ontario and 
  Wayne. 

* From Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* Warmer temperatures resulting in snow melt from the Tug Hill and
  western Adirondacks, combined with moderate to heavy rainfall of
  2 to 3 inches on Monday will result in considerable runoff into
  area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas 
  may experience flooding Monday. Larger streams and rivers will 
  take longer to respond with flooding possible later Monday 
  night into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
909 
WGUS61 KBUF 150234
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1034 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-151045-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T0500Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
1034 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee... 
  Livingston...Monroe...Niagara...Northern Erie...Orleans... 
  Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From late Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon.

* Moderate to heavy rain of 2 to 3 inches will result in 
  considerable runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas 
  may experience flooding Sunday night through Monday. Larger 
  streams and rivers will take longer to respond with flooding 
  possible later Monday into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-151045-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T1100Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
1034 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Jefferson...Lewis...
   Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York...Ontario and 
  Wayne. 

* From Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* Warmer temperatures resulting in snow melt from the Tug Hill 
  and western Adirondacks, combined with moderate to heavy 
  rainfall of 2 to 3 inches on Monday will result in 
  considerable runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas 
  may experience flooding Monday. Larger streams and rivers will 
  take longer to respond with flooding possible later Monday 
  night into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$
820 
WGUS61 KBUF 150815
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
415 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018


NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-151615-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T0500Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
415 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee... 
  Livingston...Monroe...Niagara...Northern Erie...Orleans... 
  Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From late tonight through Tuesday afternoon.

* 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain is expected tonight and Monday. Warmer
  temperatures during this time will also melt any ice left on the
  ground which will runoff into area creeks and rivers.

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas may
  experience flooding tonight through Monday. Larger streams and 
  rivers will take longer to respond with flooding possible later 
  Monday into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-151615-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T1100Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
415 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Jefferson...Lewis...
   Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York...Ontario and 
  Wayne. 

* From Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* Warmer temperatures resulting in snow melt from the Tug Hill and
  western Adirondacks, combined with moderate to heavy rainfall of
  1.5 to 2.5 inches on Monday will result in considerable runoff 
  into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas 
  may experience flooding Monday. Larger streams and rivers will 
  take longer to respond with flooding possible later Monday 
  night into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Apffel
685 
WGUS61 KBUF 151428
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1028 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018


NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-152230-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T0500Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
1028 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee... 
  Livingston...Monroe...Niagara...Northern Erie...Orleans... 
  Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From late tonight through Tuesday afternoon.

* 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected tonight and Monday. Warmer 
  temperatures during this time will also melt any ice left on the
  ground which will runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas 
  may experience flooding tonight through Monday. Larger streams 
  and rivers will take longer to respond with flooding possible 
  later Monday into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-152230-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T1100Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
1028 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Jefferson...Lewis...
   Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York...Ontario and 
  Wayne. 

* From Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* Warmer temperatures resulting in snow melt from the Tug Hill and
  western Adirondacks, combined with moderate to heavy rainfall of
  1 to 2 inches on Monday will result in considerable runoff into
  area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas 
  may experience flooding Monday. Larger streams and rivers will 
  take longer to respond with flooding possible later Monday 
  night into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
994 
WGUS61 KBUF 151726
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
126 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018


NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-160130-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T0500Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
126 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee... 
  Livingston...Monroe...Niagara...Northern Erie...Orleans... 
  Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From 1 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday afternoon.

* 1 to 1.5 inches of rain is expected tonight and Monday. Warmer 
  temperatures during this time will also melt any ice left on 
  the ground which will runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas may
  experience minor flooding tonight through Monday. Larger streams
  and rivers will take longer to respond with minor flooding 
  possible later Monday into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-160130-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T1100Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
126 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Jefferson...Lewis...
   Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York...Ontario and 
  Wayne. 

* From Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* Warmer temperatures resulting in snow melt from the Tug Hill 
  and western Adirondacks, combined with moderate to heavy 
  rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches on Monday will result in 
  considerable runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas may
  experience minor flooding Monday. Larger streams and rivers will
  take longer to respond with minor flooding possible later 
  Monday night into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
125 
WGUS61 KBUF 160136
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
936 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-160945-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T0500Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
936 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee... 
  Livingston...Monroe...Niagara...Northern Erie...Orleans... 
  Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From 1 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday afternoon.

* 1 to 1.5 inches of rain is expected tonight and Monday. Warmer 
  temperatures during this time will also melt any ice left on 
  the ground which will runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas 
  may experience minor flooding tonight through Monday. Larger 
  streams and rivers will take longer to respond with minor 
  flooding possible later Monday into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-160945-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T1100Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
936 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Jefferson...Lewis...
   Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York...Ontario and 
  Wayne. 

* From 7 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday afternoon.

* Warmer temperatures resulting in snow melt from the Tug Hill 
  and western Adirondacks, combined with moderate to heavy 
  rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches on Monday will result in 
  considerable runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* Small streams and creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas 
  may experience minor flooding Monday. Larger streams and 
  rivers will take longer to respond with minor flooding 
  possible later Monday night into Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Reynolds
504 
WGUS61 KBUF 160833
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
433 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018


NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-161700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
433 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee... 
  Livingston...Monroe...Niagara...Northern Erie...Orleans... 
  Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through Tuesday afternoon.

* 1 to 1.5 inches of rain is expected through today. Warmer 
  temperatures during this time will also melt any ice left on the
  ground which will runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* This may result in minor river and creek flooding in a few
  locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-161700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.180416T1100Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
433 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the
  following counties...in central New York...Jefferson...Lewis...
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York...Ontario and 
  Wayne. 

* Through Tuesday afternoon.

* Warmer temperatures resulting in snow melt from the Tug Hill and
  western Adirondacks, combined with moderate to heavy rainfall of
  1 to 1.5 inches today will result in considerable runoff into 
  area creeks and rivers. 

* This may result in minor flooding in some creeks and rivers 
  during the watch period.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Apffel
179 
WGUS61 KBUF 161420
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1020 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-162200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
1020 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Allegany...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee... 
  Livingston...Monroe...Niagara...Northern Erie...Orleans... 
  Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through Tuesday afternoon.

* 1 to 1.5 inches of rain is expected through today. Warmer 
  temperatures during this time will also melt any ice left on 
  the ground which will runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* This may result in minor river and creek flooding in a few 
  locations. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-162200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
1020 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Jefferson...Lewis...
   Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York...Ontario and 
  Wayne. 

* Through Tuesday afternoon.

* Warmer temperatures resulting in snow melt from the Tug Hill 
  and western Adirondacks, combined with moderate to heavy 
  rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches today will result in considerable 
  runoff into area creeks and rivers. 

* This may result in minor flooding in some creeks and rivers 
  during the watch period. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

JJR
115 
WGUS61 KBUF 161744
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
144 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-161845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-180417T2200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
144 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch central and western New York has been cancelled. 
While some area creeks and rivers are still forecast to crest at
action stage over the next couple of days...the likelihood of
widespread flooding has significantly diminished. With this in 
mind...the Flood Watch has been cancelled. 

$$

JJR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Apr 13, 10:44 AM EDT, 4 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 13, 10:44 AM EDT, 4 hours 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1044 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north into the Southern Tier this afternoon
with scattered showers falling to the north of the boundary. South
of the warm front, temperatures will soar to around 70 this
afternoon, with some breaks of sunshine. This frontal boundary
will stall across the region through the weekend, with several
periods of moderate to heavy rain and also areas of freezing
rain north of the boundary. One last area of heavy rain and
possible thunderstorms will cross the region Sunday night and
Monday, which may result in flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A warm frontal boundary near the Pennsylvania state line late this
morning will push north into the Southern Tier. The front will then
stall across the Boston Hills, and the hills of Wyoming county and
southern Livingston County by late this afternoon. South of the
boundary temperatures will soar into the 60s (and near 70F right
near the Pennsylvania state line, with some breaks of sunshine.
To the north of the front, a much different outcome for this
afternoon with cloudy skies, scattered light showers and
temperatures ranging from around 40F on a northeast wind along
the southern Lake Ontario shoreline, to the lower 50s near the
NYS Thruway. East of Lake Ontario and away from the lake
influences, temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 40s.

A tightening thermal gradient to the north of the warm front
will serve as a boundary for rain to increase through the
evening and overnight hours. This boundary will set up over Lake
Ontario, and points eastward. Overall rainfall tonight will
range up to a half an inch east of Lake Ontario. As a very
strong surface high nears western Ontario late tonight, a
southern push of shallow subfreezing Canadian air will filter
across the Saint Lawrence Valley. This will lead to a threat of
freezing rain in the predawn hours to northern Jefferson County.
A winter weather advisory, including freezing rain, will start
at 6 am for the North Country.

A northeast flow tonight will also promote a deck of low stratus
clouds and fog along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario,
with patchy fog extending southward towards Erie, Genesee and
northern Livingston Counties.

South of the stalled frontal boundary aloft precipitation chances
will quickly lower, with just a 10% chance for rain tonight near the
NYS line.

Low temperatures tonight will dip to the freezing mark east of Lake
Ontario, with upper 30s and lower 40s across the Niagara Frontier
and Finger Lakes region...to mid to upper 40s across the So. Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There is a significant risk of a wintry mix of sleet and freezing
rain this weekend. It's location will depend on the location of
sharp frontal boundary which push south of Lake Ontario Saturday and
Saturday night before lifting back northward as a warm front on
Sunday. During this time, there will a brisk northeasterly winds
gusting to 40 mph south of Lake Ontario which may result in downed
tree limbs if there is ice accumulation on vegetation. This will
then be followed by moderate to heavy rainfall Sunday night into
Monday which will pose the risk for flooding early next week.

Freezing rain is unusual in April, but model guidance consistently
shows a nearly ideal set up for a wintry mix for roughly the
northern two-thirds of our cwa. It is tempting to discount model
guidance because of the date, however unusual late (and early)
season events can and do occur. Strong high pressure is forecast to
track from Ontario to Quebec this weekend, which will provide a
steady supply of cold air and sharpen a strong surface front.
Meanwhile, mid-level warm air advection will result in a classic
freezing rain sounding with a layer of +4 to +8 C over top of sub-
freezing air. Just north of this, it will be colder aloft (but
still above freezing) with significant sleet accumulation
possible. 00Z model consensus has trended a bit south/colder
with the front and now shows a risk of significant icing
extending well south of Lake Ontario. Both ice and sleet is a
risk in the North Country where surface temperatures will remain
below freezing for most of the weekend. Based on this, we will
issue a winter weather advisory for all areas expect the
Southern Tier. Depending on the position of the front, this may
have to be added. There also is a risk the North Country may
approach warning criteria.

Temperatures will cool during the day Saturday as the front pushes
southward. This will result in freezing rain or sleet across the
North Country with areas of freezing rain developing south of Lake
Ontario. Ice accumulation will probably be limited to vegetation due
to warm soil temperatures. The front is expected to stall near the
NY/PA border Saturday night before lifting rapidly northward Sunday
as the surface low gets closer and provides a push. The greatest
risk for icing is Saturday night when strong April diurnal
influences will not be in play. During this time, northeast winds
will gust to 30 to 40 mph south of Lake Ontario which may result in
downed tree limbs in locations where there is icing. Temperatures
will warm from south to north quickly on Sunday, with sub-freezing
temperatures lingering the longest in the Saint Lawrence Valley.

Our concerns shift considerably after this as stacked low pressure
is expected to slowly move across the region. The sharp trough with
this system will tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture, with a period of
moderate to heavy rainfall expected Sunday night into Monday. Even
some thunderstorms are possible with 1-2 inches of rain likely. This
may cause flooding, which will be discussed in more detail in the
hydrology section. Precipitation will taper to showers from west to
east during the day Monday. Temperatures will continue to warm east
of Rochester Sunday night, into the upper 40s to lower 50s by
daybreak Monday. Then it will cool into the lower 40s behind the
system Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monday night through Tuesday night the large far-reaching storm
system will pivot north and east into Quebec or across the Canadian
Maritimes. Strong cold air advection behind the system will hold
temps 10-15 degrees below normal. Overnight temps will dip down to
or below freezing Monday night then only recover into mid to upper
30s Tuesday before dipping back down to around freezing again
Tuesday night. Expect wrap around moisture behind the low to
continue to generate widespread chance probabilities for rain and
snow showers through Tuesday night. The airmass may grow just cold
enough (-8C to -10C at 850mb Monday night and Tuesday morning for
some enhancement from the lakes where likely probabilities have
been included.

By Wednesday, the spring storm should be well removed from western
and central NY where many locations will see some dry time before a
fast moving shortwave trough shifting from the Pacific NW looks to
then reach the eastern Great Lakes by later Wednesday passing across
our region through Thursday. Chance probabilities for showers have
been included. The Pacific nature of this wave should mean milder
air will arrive but highs at this point on Wednesday and Thursday
are still forecast about 5-10 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm frontal boundary across northern Pennsylvania will push north
into the Southern Tier of New York this afternoon. Scattered light
showers will pass across areas to the north of the front. For the
most part, VFR cigs and vsbys will persist. The exception will
be at KIAG and KROC where a developing northeast wind flow will
bring a deck of MVFR/IFR stratus off Lake Ontario, reaching
KBUF tonight.

All TAF sites will deteriorate to IFR tonight as rain increases
over the area along and north of the front. The front will
likely be north of KJHW, with VFR cigs expected there.

Outlook...

Saturday through early Sunday morning...MVFR/IFR with rain across
the Southern Tier, and freezing rain possible farther north. Some
sleet possible across the North Country.
Later Sunday through Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below SCA thresholds this afternoon and
into much of tonight.

An area of low pressure will deepen and move closer to the eastern
Great Lakes from the Plains tonight. This will freshen northeast
winds which will build waves to SCA levels. Winds will continue
to increase with possible Gales on the western waters of Lake
Ontario Saturday and into Sunday morning. Elsewhere an extended
period of SCA is likely on the lakes, and also the Niagara
River.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a risk for flooding in the Sunday night through Tuesday
timeframe. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely, with
model consensus showing the greatest amounts are likely to be along
or north of the I-90 corridor. Some of this, may fall as frozen
precipitation but warmer temperatures Sunday into Monday are likely
to melt this and possibly some of the existing snow pack in the
Black River basin. MMEFS ensembles suggest that there is a
significant risk for flooding for many of our rivers and creeks. A
Flood Watch may be needed for all or part of the area if model
guidance continues to show this much rainfall.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Northeasterly winds will result in significant wave action
which may result in lakeshore flooding and erosion along the
southwestern shores of Lake Ontario. A lakeshore flood watch was
issued for Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 5 PM EDT Sunday
     for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday
     for NYZ001>006-010>014-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for NYZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for
         LOZ042-043-062-063.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Thomas/TMA
HYDROLOGY...Apffel
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Apffel
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 13, 4:41 AM EDT, 10 hours 23 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
441 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

NYZ007-008-140845-
Jefferson-Lewis-
441 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Several rounds of rain and snow/ice melt may also result in flooding
Sunday night through Tuesday. Storm total amounts of over 3 inches
of rain are possible, with the greatest risk for flooding along
slower responding creeks and rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-140845-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
441 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EDT
SUNDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Lakeshore Flood Watch.

Several rounds of rain may also result in flooding Sunday night
through Tuesday. Storm total amounts of over 3 inches of rain are
possible, with the greatest risk for flooding along slower responding
creeks and rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-010>014-085-140845-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Southern Erie-
441 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Several rounds of rain may also result in flooding Sunday night
through Tuesday. Storm total amounts of over 3 inches of rain are
possible, with the greatest risk for flooding along slower responding
creeks and rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019>021-140845-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
441 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The chance for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Rain may change to freezing rain Saturday night, before changing
back to rain Sunday. There is a potential for at least some ice
accumulation during this period.

Several rounds of rain may also result in flooding Sunday night
through Tuesday. Storm total amounts of over 3 inches of rain are
possible, with the greatest risk for flooding along slower responding
creeks and rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-044-045-064-065-SLZ022-024-140845-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
441 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-043-062-063-140845-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
441 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 13, 4:30 AM EDTWinter Weather AdvisoryBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 10 more57 hr
Apr 13, 4:33 AM EDTLakeshore Flood WatchBUFMonroe, Niagara, Orleans24 hr
Apr 13, 5:23 AM EDTGale WatchBUF10 hr
Apr 13, 3:31 PM EDTGale WarningBUF58 hr

Nearby

Flood Watches in New York, 2018Every flood watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.