Flood Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

183 
WGUS61 KBUF 100848
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
348 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat Thursday through Friday night...

Southerly winds will bring warmer air into Western New York today
through Friday. This will result in an extended period of above 
freezing temperatures which will result in snow melt. The
combination of snow melt and light rainfall of around a half inch
will result in increased run-off and rises in creek and river
levels.

Area creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rapid rises in 
water level can break up this ice, which can then become jammed 
where there are constrictions in the river or creek channel, such 
as curves or other restrictions.

People living in areas that are prone to ice jam flooding should
take the time in advance to prepare for the potential for
flooding this Thursday and Friday.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-101700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180111T1500Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
348 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From Thursday morning through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in ice jam
  flooding. Rainfall during the watch will average around a half
  inch.
 
* The exact location and timing of ice jams is difficult to
  predict. Buffalo, Cayuga, Cazenovia and Cattaraugus Creeks are
  typically most prone to ice jam flooding. Other creeks can also
  occasionally experience ice jam flooding through the watch area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Apffel

175 
WGUS61 KBUF 101658
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1158 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...Risk of Flooding Thursday through Friday night...

Southerly winds will bring warm air into Western New York through
Friday. This extended period of above freezing temperatures will 
result in extensive snow melt. A period of rainfall will accompany
this period of warmer weather, with the combination of the two 
resulting in significant rises on area rivers and creeks.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams. Area 
creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rapid rises in water 
level can break up this ice, which can then become jammed where 
there are constrictions in the river or creek channel, such as 
curves or other restrictions. People living in areas that are 
prone to ice jam flooding should take the time in advance to 
prepare for the potential for flooding this Thursday and Friday.

There is also a risk of general river and creek flooding. This
will primarily depend on where the heaviest rainfall occurs and 
may be localized to a few basins in the watch area. Even so, there
is a significant risk of localized rainfall totals of greater 
than an inch which may result in river and creek flooding. The 
combination of snow melt and rain also may cause basements to 
flood.

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-110115-
/O.EXB.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, and Wellsville
1158 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has expanded the

* Flood Watch to include portions of central and western New 
  York...including the following counties...in central New 
  York...Northern Cayuga. In western New York...Allegany... 
  Livingston...Monroe...Ontario and Wayne. 

* From Thursday evening through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding on
  some area creeks and rivers. Ice jams are also possible.
  Rainfall during the watch will average between a half an inch
  and an inch.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-110115-
/O.EXB.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1158 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has expanded the

* Flood Watch to include a portion of central New York... 
  including the following counties...Jefferson...Lewis and 
  Oswego. 

* From Thursday evening through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding the
  Black River, its tributaries, and other area creeks. Rainfall
  amounts will average between 1 and 2 inches in the Eastern Lake
  Ontario region. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-110115-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180111T1500Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
1158 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From Thursday morning through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in ice jam
  flooding. Rainfall during the watch will average between a half
  inch and an inch. 

* The exact location and timing of ice jams is difficult to 
  predict. Buffalo, Cayuga, Cazenovia and Cattaraugus Creeks are 
  typically most prone to ice jam flooding. Other creeks can 
  also occasionally experience ice jam flooding through the 
  watch area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Apffel

171 
WGUS61 KBUF 110026
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
726 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...Risk of Flooding Thursday through Friday night...

Southerly winds will bring warm air into Western New York through
Friday. This extended period of above freezing temperatures will
result in extensive snow melt. A period of rainfall will
accompany this period of warmer weather, with the combination of
the two resulting in significant rises on area rivers and creeks.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams. Area
creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rapid rises in water
level can break up this ice, which can then become jammed where
there are constrictions in the river or creek channel, such as
curves or other restrictions. People living in areas that are
prone to ice jam flooding should take the time in advance to
prepare for the potential for flooding this Thursday and Friday.

There is also a risk of general river and creek flooding. This
will primarily depend on where the heaviest rainfall occurs and
may be localized to a few basins in the watch area. Even so,
there is a significant risk of localized rainfall totals of
greater than an inch which may result in river and creek
flooding. The combination of snow melt and rain also may cause
basements to flood.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-110830-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180111T1500Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
726 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From Thursday morning through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in ice jam 
  flooding. Rainfall during the watch will average between a 
  half inch and an inch. 

* The exact location and timing of ice jams is difficult to 
  predict. Buffalo, Cayuga, Cazenovia and Cattaraugus Creeks are 
  typically most prone to ice jam flooding. Other creeks can 
  also occasionally experience ice jam flooding through the 
  watch area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-110830-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, and Wellsville
726 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Northern Cayuga. In 
  western New York...Allegany...Livingston...Monroe...Ontario 
  and Wayne. 

* From Thursday evening through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding on
  some area creeks and rivers. Ice jams are also possible.
  Rainfall during the watch will average between a half an inch
  and an inch. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-110830-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
726 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York...including the following 
  counties...Jefferson...Lewis and Oswego. 

* From Thursday evening through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding the
  Black River, its tributaries, and other area creeks. Rainfall
  amounts will average between 1 and 2 inches in the Eastern Lake
  Ontario region. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

543 
WGUS61 KBUF 110300
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1000 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...Risk of Flooding Thursday through Friday night...

Southerly winds will bring warm air into Western New York through
Friday. This extended period of above freezing temperatures will
result in extensive snow melt. A period of rainfall will
accompany this period of warmer weather, with the combination of
the two resulting in significant rises on area rivers and creeks.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams. Area
creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rapid rises in water
level can break up this ice, which can then become jammed where
there are constrictions in the river or creek channel, such as
curves or other restrictions. People living in areas that are
prone to ice jam flooding should take the time in advance to
prepare for the potential for flooding this Thursday and Friday.

There is also a risk of general river and creek flooding. This
will primarily depend on where the heaviest rainfall occurs and
may be localized to a few basins in the watch area. Even so,
there is a significant risk of localized rainfall totals of
greater than an inch which may result in river and creek
flooding. The combination of snow melt and rain also may cause
basements to flood.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-111100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180111T1500Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
1000 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From Thursday morning through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in ice jam 
  flooding. Rainfall during the watch will average between a 
  half inch and an inch. 

* The exact location and timing of ice jams is difficult to 
  predict. Buffalo, Cayuga, Cazenovia and Cattaraugus Creeks are 
  typically most prone to ice jam flooding. Other creeks can 
  also occasionally experience ice jam flooding through the 
  watch area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-111100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, and Wellsville
1000 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Northern Cayuga. In 
  western New York...Allegany...Livingston...Monroe...Ontario 
  and Wayne. 

* From Thursday evening through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding on
  some area creeks and rivers. Ice jams are also possible.
  Rainfall during the watch will average between a half an inch
  and an inch. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-111100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1000 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York...including the following 
  counties...Jefferson...Lewis and Oswego. 

* From Thursday evening through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding the
  Black River, its tributaries, and other area creeks. Rainfall
  amounts will average between 1 and 2 inches in the Eastern Lake
  Ontario region. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

037 
WGUS61 KBUF 110856
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
356 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO RAIN AND
SNOWMELT...

Warmer air will continue to move into Western New York through 
Friday. This extended period of well above freezing temperatures 
will result in extensive snow melt. A period of rainfall will 
accompany this period of warmer weather, with the combination of 
the two resulting in significant rises on area rivers and creeks.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams. Area
creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rapid rises in water
level can break up this ice, which can then become jammed where
there are constrictions in the river or creek channel, such as
curves or other restrictions. People living in areas that are
prone to ice jam flooding should take the time in advance to
prepare for the potential for flooding.

There is also a risk of general river and creek flooding. This
will primarily depend on where the heaviest rainfall occurs and
may be localized to a few basins in the watch area. Even so,
there is a significant risk of localized rainfall totals of
greater than an inch which may result in river and creek
flooding. The combination of snow melt and rain also may cause
basements to flood.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-111700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180111T1500Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
356 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From 10 AM EST this morning through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in ice jam 
  flooding. Rainfall during the watch will average between a 
  half inch and an inch. 

* The exact location and timing of ice jams is difficult to
  predict. Buffalo, Cayuga, Cazenovia and Cattaraugus Creeks are
  typically most prone to ice jam flooding. Other creeks can also
  occasionally experience ice jam flooding in the watch area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-111700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, and Wellsville
356 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Northern Cayuga. In 
  western New York...Allegany...Livingston...Monroe...Ontario 
  and Wayne. 

* From this evening through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding on
  some area creeks and rivers. Ice jams are also possible.
  Rainfall during the watch will average between a half an inch
  and an inch. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-111700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
356 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York...including the following 
  counties...Jefferson...Lewis and Oswego. 

* From this evening through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding the
  Black River, its tributaries, and other area creeks. Rainfall
  amounts will average between 1 and 2 inches in the Eastern Lake
  Ontario region. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

TMA

044 
WGUS61 KBUF 111656
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1156 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO RAIN AND 
SNOWMELT...

Warmer air will continue across Western New York through Friday. 
This extended period of well above freezing temperatures will 
result in continued extensive snow melt. A period of rainfall 
will accompany this period of warmer weather tonight, with the 
combination of the two resulting in significant rises on area 
rivers and creeks.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams. Area
creeks and rivers have thick ice in place with a few creeks in
Chautauqua County having broken ice with jams in place. Rapid 
rises in water level tonight due to the rainfall can break up 
this ice, which can then become jammed where there are 
constrictions in the river or creek channel, such as curves or 
other restrictions. People living in areas that are prone to ice 
jam flooding should take the time in advance to prepare for the 
potential for flooding.

There is also a risk of general river and creek flooding. This
will primarily depend on where the heaviest rainfall occurs and
may be localized to a few basins in the watch area. Even so,
there is a significant risk of localized rainfall totals of
greater than an inch which may result in river and creek
flooding. The combination of snow melt and rain also may cause
basements to flood.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-120100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
1156 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in ice jam 
  flooding. Rainfall during the watch will average between a 
  half inch and an inch. 

* The exact location and timing of ice jams is difficult to 
  predict. Buffalo, Cayuga, Cazenovia and Cattaraugus Creeks are 
  typically most prone to ice jam flooding. Other creeks can 
  also occasionally experience ice jam flooding in the watch 
  area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-120100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, and Wellsville
1156 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Northern Cayuga. In 
  western New York...Allegany...Livingston...Monroe...Ontario 
  and Wayne. 

* From 10 PM EST this evening through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding on
  some area creeks and rivers. Ice jams are also possible.
  Rainfall during the watch will average between a half an inch
  and one and a half inch. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-120100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1156 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York...including the following 
  counties...Jefferson...Lewis and Oswego. 

* From 10 PM EST this evening through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding the
  Black River, its tributaries, and other area creeks. Rainfall
  amounts will average between 1 and 2 inches with locally higher
  amounts in the Eastern Lake Ontario region. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

SMITH

438 
WGUS61 KBUF 120016
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
716 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO RAIN AND
SNOWMELT...

Warmer air will continue across Western New York through Friday.
This extended period of well above freezing temperatures will
result in continued extensive snow melt. An average rainfall of
one inch will accompany this period of warmer weather tonight, 
with the combination of the two resulting in significant rises on 
area rivers and creeks.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams. Flooding
from snowmelt and ice jams have already been reported across parts
of far western New York...including in Erie and Chautauqua
counties. 

Rapid rises in water level tonight due to the rainfall can break 
up remaining ice, which can then become jammed where there are 
constrictions in the river or creek channel, such as in curves or
other restrictions. People living in areas that are prone to ice 
jam flooding should take the time in advance to prepare for the 
potential for flooding.

There is also a risk of general river and creek flooding. This
will primarily depend on where the heaviest rainfall occurs and
may be localized to a few basins in the watch area. Even so,
there is a significant risk of localized rainfall totals of
greater than an inch which may result in river and creek
flooding. The combination of snow melt and rain also may cause
basements to flood.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-120830-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
716 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in ice jam 
  flooding. Rainfall during the watch will average between a 
  half inch and an inch. 

* The exact location and timing of ice jams is difficult to 
  predict. Buffalo, Cayuga, Cazenovia and Cattaraugus Creeks are 
  typically most prone to ice jam flooding. Other creeks can 
  also occasionally experience ice jam flooding in the watch 
  area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-120830-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, and Wellsville
716 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Northern Cayuga. In 
  western New York...Allegany...Livingston...Monroe...Ontario 
  and Wayne. 

* Through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding on
  some area creeks and rivers. Ice jams are also possible.
  Rainfall during the watch will average between a half an inch
  and one and a half inch. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-120830-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
716 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York...including the following 
  counties...Jefferson...Lewis and Oswego. 

* Through late Friday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding the
  Black River, its tributaries, and other area creeks. Rainfall
  amounts will average between 1 and 2 inches with locally higher
  amounts in the Eastern Lake Ontario region. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

288 
WGUS61 KBUF 120812
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
312 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO RAIN AND 
SNOWMELT...

Periods of rain will continue across Western New York through
early afternoon. The rain in combination will the recent 
extensive snowmelt will produce additional runoff continuing to 
elevate rivers and creeks. 

Although the primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams,
there is also a risk of general river and creek flooding. Minor 
flooding from snowmelt and ice jams has either been already
reported or ongoing across parts of western New York, including 
in Erie, Chautauqua, Wyoming and Monroe counties.

People living in areas that are prone to ice jam flooding should 
take the time in advance to prepare for the potential for 
flooding.

The risk of general river and creek flooding will primarily 
depend on where the heaviest rainfall occurs and may be localized 
to a few basins in the watch area. The combination of snow melt 
and rain also may cause basements to flood.

Rain across the watch area will transition to a wintry mix this
afternoon, before changing to an accumulating snow by tonight.

Temperatures below freezing over the weekend will likely harden 
any jams that occur through tonight.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-121615-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
312 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through late tonight.

* The combination of rainfall and snowmelt will produce enough
  runoff to cause localized flooding. Ice jams are also possible.
  Rainfall during the watch will average between a half an inch
  and one inch.

* The exact location and timing of ice jams is difficult to 
  predict. Buffalo, Cayuga, Cazenovia and Cattaraugus Creeks are 
  typically most prone to ice jam flooding. Other creeks can 
  also occasionally experience ice jam flooding in the watch 
  area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-121615-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, and Wellsville
312 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Northern Cayuga. In 
  western New York...Allegany...Livingston...Monroe...Ontario 
  and Wayne. 

* Through late tonight.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding on
  some area creeks and rivers. Ice jams are also possible.
  Rainfall during the watch will average between a half an inch
  and one and a half inch. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-121615-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
312 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York...including the following 
  counties...Jefferson...Lewis and Oswego. 

* Through late tonight.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding the
  Black River, its tributaries, and other area creeks. Rainfall
  amounts will average between 1 and 2 inches with locally higher
  amounts in the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Ice jams are also
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

TMA

423 
WGUS61 KBUF 121526
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1026 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO RAIN AND
SNOWMELT...

Periods of rain will continue across Western New York through
early afternoon. The rain in combination will the recent
extensive snowmelt will produce additional runoff continuing to
elevate rivers and creeks.

Although the primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams,
there is also a risk of general river and creek flooding. 
Flooding from rainfall, snowmelt and ice jams has either been 
already reported or ongoing across parts of western New York and
north central New York.

People living in areas that are prone to ice jam flooding should
take the time in advance to prepare for the potential for
flooding.

The risk of general river and creek flooding will primarily
depend on where the heaviest rainfall occurs and may be localized
to a few basins in the watch area. The combination of snow melt
and rain also may cause basements to flood.

Rain across the watch area will transition to a wintry mix this
afternoon, before changing to an accumulating snow by tonight.

Temperatures below freezing over the weekend will likely harden
any jams that occur through tonight.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-122330-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
1026 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through late tonight.

* The combination of rainfall and snowmelt will produce enough 
  runoff to cause localized flooding. Ice jams are also 
  possible. Rainfall during the watch will average between a 
  half an inch and one inch. 

* The exact location and timing of ice jams is difficult to 
  predict. Buffalo, Cayuga, Cazenovia and Cattaraugus Creeks are 
  typically most prone to ice jam flooding. Other creeks can 
  also occasionally experience ice jam flooding in the watch 
  area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-122330-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, and Wellsville
1026 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central and western New York...including the 
  following counties...in central New York...Northern Cayuga. In 
  western New York...Allegany...Livingston...Monroe...Ontario 
  and Wayne. 

* Through late tonight.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding on
  some area creeks and rivers. Ice jams are also possible.
  Rainfall during the watch will average between a half an inch
  and one and a half inches. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-122330-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1026 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York...including the following 
  counties...Jefferson...Lewis and Oswego. 

* Through late tonight.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding the
  Black River, its tributaries, and other area creeks. Rainfall
  amounts will average between 1 and 2 inches with locally higher
  amounts in the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Ice jams are also
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Church

800 
WGUS61 KBUF 122054
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
354 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-122200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180113T0900Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
354 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for western and central New York has been 
cancelled. Please refer to existing flood warnings for additional 
information on any ongoing or flooding concerns. The heavy rain 
has ended and most ice jams have broken up. Therefore, no 
additional flooding is expected. 

However, a strong cold front is moving eastward across New York 
and will result in temperatures dropping well below freezing for 
all of Western and Central New York overnight. Personal belongings
left outside in standing water will end up frozen in a sheet of 
ice. 

$$

Zaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
704 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure passing over the region tonight will help to direct
notably warmer air northward into our region for Wednesday into
Friday. This will encourage temperatures to eventually soar into the
50s...which when accompanied by rapidly melting snow and some rain
showers...will set the stage for significant rises on area
tributaries and potentially some ice jam flooding. The weekend will
then feature a change back to much colder weather with the risk for
a plowable snowstorm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A large surface high centered over the Lower Great Lakes at 00z will
gradually push across our forecast area during the course of the
night. While this will offer fair weather for the vast majority of
the region...there will be some leftover light snow showers over the
Eastern Lake Ontario region as a result some weak lake enhancement
and upslope flow. We should also anticipate a gradual thinning of
the strato-cu deck over the region as drier air gradually works in
from the west.

On Wednesday...the surface high will drift off the New England
coast. The clockwise circulation around this large feature will
couple with rising heights to keep moderately strong warm advection
in place. This warm advection will allow H85 temperatures to climb
to between +4 and +6c. Directly mixing this to the surface would
easily give us max temps in the 50s...but there will be a staunch
low level inversion in place that should shield us from at least a
portion of the mixing provided by a 40-50kt low level jet. Feel that
we should be able to tap into a little of this warm up though...so
will bump temperatures up a bit from continuity. max temps should
range from the low and even mid 40s across the western counties to
the mid and upper 30s across the North Country where a stronger
inversion is forecast.

While an organized surface warm front is not anticipated...the nose
of the aforementioned low level jet will produce enough isentropic
lift within a swath of higher PWAT air to generate some rain showers
during the afternoon and evening. This could prove to be a problem
for the North Country where surface temperatures will be within a
few degrees of freezing. Will keep the mention of freezing rain in
place for that area for the late afternoon into Wednesday evening.
As confidence in this scenario increases...a winter weather
advisory would be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The period will feature two main weather issues. First, will be a
significant warm up which will result in snow melt, and potentially
flooding Thursday into Friday. The second is potential snowfall late
Friday into Saturday.

Temperatures will continue to rise in a southerly flow Wednesday
night. There will be some lingering showers Wednesday evening, which
will be steadiest across the Eastern Lake Ontario region with the
warm front and with some upsloping with generally scattered and
light activity elsewhere. Temperatures will be near freezing across
the North Country Wednesday evening, but will quickly rise with all
areas expected to be in the 40s by daybreak Thursday.

...Warmer temperatures for Thursday...

Temperatures will continue to warm Thursday, with warm air advection
and downsloping allowing temperatures to rise into the 50s in most
locations. This is slightly warmer than model consensus which often
does not capture the full effects of downsloping. There will still
be a few showers from time to time in a broad warm advection
pattern, but coverage should be scattered in nature until late in
the day. The warm temperatures will result in significant snow melt
on Thursday, however rainfall amounts through Thursday afternoon
will be generally less than a quarter inch.

Thursday night a trough moving through the Mississippi Valley will
amplify, forcing a strengthening of a SSW oriented low level jet
across the Ohio Valley and eastern seaboard. This will ramp up the
moisture transport, with increasing low level and upper level jet
dynamics and frontogenesis contributing to more widespread rainfall.
12Z guidance has trended a bit slower and wetter than previous runs
with precipitation expected to remain all rain through daybreak
Friday. Here is where the greatest uncertainty in QPF is, with some
guidance clipping our region with a wave of low pressure and moisture
while most has only modest rainfall amounts developing ahead of the
cold front. Amounts during this time will average between 0.25 -
0.75 inches. The combination of warm temperatures and rainfall
presents a risk for flooding which is discussed in the hydrology
section of the discussion.

...Potentially significant snowfall Friday and Saturday...

Most model guidance continues to develop a major winter storm
which may impact our region. Some locations are likely to get
well over a foot of snow from this system, however there still
are significant differences among individual models and
ensembles which leaves uncertainty in the placement of the
heaviest snow. There also will be an area of mixed
precipitation. Stay tuned, and keep in mind that model runs are
likely to fluctuate concerning the track of the low and the
location of the heaviest snowfall.

In general, expect rain to transition to snow on Friday, with a
period of mixed precipitation likely in between. By Friday night
expect mostly snow as most guidance pushes a frontal boundary just
to our south. By Saturday, most guidance tracks the strengthening
surface low just to our south and into New England. This will drag
colder air into the region, with increasing confidence in snow and
potentially some lake enhancement south of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Light snow will likely continue to start this period, mainly south
of Lake Ontario where cold air advection will bring 850 hPa
temperatures down to -14 to -18C that will transition synoptic snows
to lake effect snows.

Cold air will continue to advect across the region Sunday...bringing
the region back into the well below normal temperature regime. Highs
Sunday and Monday will range through the teens...with lake effect
snow primarily south and southeast of the Great Lakes. While the
bulk of the lake effect snow will be off Lake Ontario, the recent
warm spell and winds may open some waters on Lake Erie...that when
combined with some chances for upstream connections...will warrant
at least a chance for snow.

Monday night and Tuesday a fast moving shortwave may bring light
synoptic snows across the Eastern Great Lakes region, with
temperatures perhaps a few degrees warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While there will be a fair amount of clouds over the region
tonight...high pressure passing overhead will keep VFR conditions
in place. The exception will be across the Southern Tier where MVFR
cigs will persist through at least 06z. There could even be a couple
hours of IFR cigs at spots like KJHW and KELZ.

On Wednesday...the large surface high will push east across New
England. This will keep VFR conditions in place through at least mid
afternoon...then warmer air moving into the region will support
lowering cigs with some rain moving in by late afternoon. Cigs may
once lower to MVFR levels across the Southern Tier.

The only other issue will be the likelihood for some low level wind
shear Wednesday afternoon and night. A 40-50 knot southwest wind
between 2-5k ft will combine with light southerly winds to generate
this potential.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Deteriorating conditions with widespread IFR to
MVFR cigs in rain.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. Rain showers likely.
Thursday night and Friday...MVFR. Rain likely.
Saturday...MVFR or IFR with rain changing over to snow.
Sunday...MVFR with possible IFR in a chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will drift across the Lower Great Lakes tonight. This
will allow winds and waves to further subside so that no marine
headlines will be needed.

While winds will freshen on the backside of the exiting high
pressure system Wednesday afternoon...there will be an offshore
flow...thus limiting the need for any small craft advisories.

Moderate southerlies will be found across the Lower Great Lakes
Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A significant warm-up will arrive Wednesday through Thursday
night. There will be light to moderate rainfall during this time,
with amounts generally a half inch or less. This alone will probably
not be enough to produce widespread river flooding, however this
does bring an increased risk of ice jams, with the Buffalo Creeks of
particular concern. Because the creek ice is very thick, it probably
will take a bit more thawing degree hours than typical to break up
ice, however if thick ice does break up it is particularly prone
to jams. There is a significant risk that temperatures will
warm enough to break up ice on the typically vulnerable Buffalo
creeks, with a risk of ice jam flooding starting Thursday
evening and going through Friday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
638 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-101145-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
638 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A significant warm-up will arrive Wednesday through Friday morning.
This will produce an extended period of melting snow, with an area
of low pressure also bringing a few periods of rain. The combination
of rain and snowmelt may bring an increased risk of flooding,
particularly Thursday night and Friday. The greatest risk of
flooding is from ice jams as the warming temperatures and rising
flows break up the extensive ice on area rivers and creeks.

A strong cold front will cross the area Friday, followed by low
pressure moving through Pennsylvania and New York Friday night and
Saturday. This system will be moisture laden, and bring with it the
potential for significant amounts of rain, ice and snow. There
remains some uncertainty with the exact track of this system, and
how fast cold air will arrive. These details will determine how much
of each precipitation type falls.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-101145-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
638 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Church/Hitchcock