Alert archive / Vermont / Wind Advisories in 2018
Wind Advisory 3, NWS Burlington, VT
NWS Burlington, VT issued this wind advisory at Apr 15, 2018, 3:05 AM EDT for 4 counties in Vermont; Clinton County, Franklin County, St. Lawrence County, New York. It took effect at Apr 16, 2018, 4:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 16 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 15, 2018, 3:05 AM EDT (07:05 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 16, 2018, 4:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Apr 16, 2018, 7:48 PM EDT
- In force
- 16 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Burlington, VT
Counties Clinton County, NY, Franklin County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Addison County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Rutland County, VT
The radar
The Burlington radar (KCXX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1086 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 60 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 276 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 756 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
768 WWUS71 KBTV 150705 NPWBTV URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 305 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 VTZ011-016>019-152100- /O.UPG.KBTV.HW.A.0002.180416T0600Z-180417T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KBTV.HW.W.0002.180416T0800Z-180417T0300Z/ Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden- Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland- Including the cities of Rutland, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, and Killington 305 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY... The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a High Wind Warning, which is in effect from 4 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect. * Locations...The western slopes of the Green Mountains including all of Rutland County in Vermont. * Hazards...Strong to damaging southeast winds. * Winds...Southeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph, except localized gusts in Eastern Addison and Eastern Rutland Counties up to 75 mph possible. * Timing...Winds will increase overnight tonight and will peak between 6 AM and 6 PM on Monday. * Impacts...Scattered to widespread power outages are expected due to the strong winds combined with saturated soils and some ice accumulation on elevated surfaces along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather situation. && $$ NYZ029>031-VTZ002-005-009-152100- /O.NEW.KBTV.WI.Y.0003.180416T0800Z-180417T0300Z/ Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Franklin-Western Chittenden-Western Addison- Including the cities of Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, St. Albans, Burlington, Middlebury, and Vergennes 305 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY... The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 4 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday. * Locations...Portions of the western and northern Adirondacks, as well as western Franklin, western Chittenden, and western Addison Counties in Vermont. * Hazards...Strong and gusty southeast winds. * Winds...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Timing...Winds will increase overnight tonight and will peak between 6 AM and 6 PM on Monday. * Impacts...Isolated power outages are expected due to the strong winds combined with saturated soils and some ice accumulation on elevated surfaces, especially across parts of the Adirondack Mountains. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph or more are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather situation. && $$
5 follow-up statements
537 WWUS71 KBTV 151918 NPWBTV URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 318 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 VTZ011-016>019-161030- /O.CON.KBTV.HW.W.0002.180416T0800Z-180417T0300Z/ Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden- Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland- Including the cities of Rutland, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, and Killington 318 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY... The National Weather Service in Burlington continues the High Wind Warning, from 4 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday. * Locations...The western slopes of the Green Mountains including all of Rutland County in Vermont. * Hazards...Strong to damaging southeast winds. * Winds...Southeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph, except localized gusts in Eastern Addison and Eastern Rutland Counties up to 75 mph possible. * Timing...Winds will increase overnight tonight and will peak between 6 AM and 6 PM on Monday. * Impacts...Scattered to widespread power outages are expected due to the strong winds combined with saturated soils and some ice accumulation on elevated surfaces along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather situation. && $$ NYZ029>031-VTZ002-005-009-161030- /O.CON.KBTV.WI.Y.0003.180416T0800Z-180417T0300Z/ Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Franklin-Western Chittenden-Western Addison- Including the cities of Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, St. Albans, Burlington, Middlebury, and Vergennes 318 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY... The National Weather Service in Burlington continues the Wind Advisory, from 4 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday. * Locations...Portions of the western and northern Adirondacks, as well as western Franklin, western Chittenden, and western Addison Counties in Vermont. * Hazards...Strong and gusty southeast winds. * Winds...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Timing...Winds will increase overnight tonight and will peak between 6 AM and 6 PM on Monday. * Impacts...Isolated power outages are expected due to the strong winds combined with saturated soils and some ice accumulation on elevated surfaces, especially across parts of the Adirondacks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 45 mph or more are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather situation. && $$ BANACOS
835 WWUS71 KBTV 160723 NPWBTV URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 323 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 VTZ011-016>019-162100- /O.CON.KBTV.HW.W.0002.180416T0800Z-180417T0300Z/ Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden- Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland- Including the cities of Rutland, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, and Killington 323 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Burlington continues the High Wind Warning, until 11 PM EDT this evening. * Locations...The western slopes of the Green Mountains including all of Rutland County in Vermont. * Hazards...Strong to damaging southeast winds. * Winds...Southeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph, except localized gusts in Eastern Addison and Eastern Rutland Counties up to 75 mph possible. * Timing...Winds will peak between 6 AM and 6 PM today. * Impacts...Scattered to widespread power outages are expected due to the strong winds combined with saturated soils and some ice accumulation on elevated surfaces along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. * Observations...Winds have already gusted to 51 mph at Mendon and 48 mph at Bread Loaf, with isolated power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather situation. && $$ NYZ029>031-VTZ002-005-009-162100- /O.CON.KBTV.WI.Y.0003.180416T0800Z-180417T0300Z/ Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Franklin-Western Chittenden-Western Addison- Including the cities of Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, St. Albans, Burlington, Middlebury, and Vergennes 323 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Burlington continues the Wind Advisory, until 11 PM EDT this evening. * Locations...Portions of the western and northern Adirondacks, as well as western Franklin, western Chittenden, and western Addison Counties in Vermont. * Hazards...Strong and gusty southeast winds. * Winds...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Timing...Winds will peak between 6 AM and 6 PM today. * Impacts...Isolated power outages are expected due to the strong winds combined with saturated soils and some ice accumulation on elevated surfaces, especially across parts of the Adirondacks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 45 mph or more are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather situation. && $$
207 WWUS71 KBTV 161131 NPWBTV URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 731 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 VTZ011-016>019-162115- /O.CON.KBTV.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180417T0300Z/ Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden- Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland- Including the cities of Rutland, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, and Killington 731 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Burlington continues the High Wind Warning, until 11 PM EDT this evening. * Locations...The western slopes of the Green Mountains including all of Rutland County in Vermont. * Hazards...Strong to damaging southeast winds. * Winds...Southeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph, except localized gusts in Eastern Addison and Eastern Rutland Counties up to 75 mph possible. * Timing...Winds will peak between 6 AM and 6 PM today. * Impacts...Scattered to widespread power outages are expected due to the strong winds combined with saturated soils and some ice accumulation on elevated surfaces along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. * Observations...At 521 AM Mendon, Vermont gusted to 64 mph and 55 mph wind gust was reported in Goshen, Vermont. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather situation. && $$ NYZ029>031-VTZ002-005-009-162115- /O.CON.KBTV.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180417T0300Z/ Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Franklin-Western Chittenden-Western Addison- Including the cities of Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, St. Albans, Burlington, Middlebury, and Vergennes 731 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Burlington continues the Wind Advisory, until 11 PM EDT this evening. * Locations...Portions of the western and northern Adirondacks, as well as western Franklin, western Chittenden, and western Addison Counties in Vermont. * Hazards...Strong and gusty southeast winds. * Winds...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Timing...Winds will peak between 6 AM and 6 PM today. * Impacts...Isolated power outages are expected due to the strong winds combined with saturated soils and some ice accumulation on elevated surfaces, especially across parts of the Adirondacks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 45 mph or more are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather situation. && $$
569 WWUS71 KBTV 161945 NPWBTV URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 345 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 VTZ011-016>019-170300- /O.CAN.KBTV.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180417T0300Z/ /O.EXA.KBTV.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180417T0300Z/ Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden- Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland- Including the cities of Rutland, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, and Killington 345 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect until 11 PM EDT this evening. This replaces the High Wind Warning previously in effect. * Locations...Western slopes of the Green Mountains. * Hazards...Strong and gusty southeast winds. * Winds...East 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Timing...Wind gusts up to 50 mph are expected through late afternoon, and will gradually diminish through the evening hours. * Impacts...Possible additional damage to tree limbs and powerlines. Additional power outages are possible due to the strong winds combined with saturated soils. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 45 mph or more are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ NYZ029>031-VTZ002-005-009-170300- /O.CON.KBTV.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180417T0300Z/ Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Franklin-Western Chittenden-Western Addison- Including the cities of Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, St. Albans, Burlington, Middlebury, and Vergennes 345 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Burlington continues the Wind Advisory, until 11 PM EDT this evening. * Locations...Portions of the northern Adirondacks, as well as the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley. * Hazards...Strong and gusty southeast winds. * Winds...Southeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Timing...Wind gusts up to 50 mph are expected through late afternoon, and will gradually diminish through the evening hours. * Impacts...Possible additional damage to tree limbs and powerlines. Additional power outages are possible due to the strong winds combined with saturated soils. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 45 mph or more are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather situation. && $$ BANACOS
530 WWUS71 KBTV 162348 NPWBTV URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 748 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 NYZ029>031-VTZ002-005-009-011-016>019-170100- /O.CAN.KBTV.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180417T0300Z/ Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Franklin-Western Chittenden-Western Addison- Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden- Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland- Including the cities of Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, St. Albans, Burlington, Middlebury, Vergennes, Rutland, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, and Killington 748 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Burlington has cancelled the Wind Advisory for the western slopes of the Adirondack and Green Mountains. Winds have largely fallen below advisory criteria as of 730 pm and will continue to slowly abate overnight with no additional wind hazards expected. $$ JMG
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Apr 15, 1:31 AM EDT, 1 hour 34 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 15, 1:31 AM EDT, 1 hour 34 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
131 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
An active and dynamic weather pattern will be in place across the
North Country through Monday night. An unseasonably strong frontal
zone draped across the region will bring periods of light to
moderate mixed precipitation tonight and Sunday. Areas of
difficult travel are expected overnight and Sunday morning with
icy and/or snow covered roadways developing. We'll see the
boundary lift northward as a warm front Sunday night into Monday
as strong low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley region.
This will lead to periods of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall
and the potential for minor river flooding during Monday and
Monday night. Lastly, as the strong low pressure system approaches,
areas of strong southeasterly winds will be possible on Monday,
especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains,
where localized wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible. The
weather pattern will trend drier toward the middle portion of
the work week, though temperatures will generally remain
slightly below seasonable levels for mid-April.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 936 PM EDT Saturday...More tweaks to the forecast, mainly
to keep the sleet/fzra line a bit further north tonight based
off latest radar data and surface observations. KBTV has seen
mainly -fzra all evening with brief periods of sleet mixing in.
Early Lyndon State sounding confirmed a sharp warm nose around
750 mb to near 0C, but given -fzra/pl in many observations I
have to believe that some mesoscale effects are occurring or
alternatively that the max T aloft in the warm nose is just a
tad warmer in some spots. Have also noticed that the primary
dendritic snow growth zone is way up there (near 500 mb) and
waffles in and out of saturation on several model depictions
this evening across our northern counties. So it's plausible
that snow-growth processes are somewhat marginal in the main
isentropic lift zone to the north of the front. Thus is the
challenging nature of mixed-precipitation forecasting. With
these slight adjustments snowfall totals were cut back to the
south of a KSLK-KBTV-K1V4 line and icing amounts increased a bit
along this line (up to 0.20 inches) by Sunday.
Prior discussion...
Maintained the Winter Weather Advisory areawide for tonight and
Sunday, with travel conditions becoming increasingly icy after
sunset this evening as pavement temps cool below 32F. The worst
of the winter travel conditions will likely occur tonight into
Sunday morning.
Very dynamic pattern across the CONUS with deep mid-latitude cyclone
across the central Plains, and an eastward extending cold front into
PA/sern NY that is unusually intense (26F at BTV and mid-80s across
central NJ). Generally looking at strong frontogenetic forcing
developing within 850-700mb frontal zone across nrn NY and VT late
this afternoon through the overnight hours, which will result in
increasing coverage of steady light to moderate mixed wintry
precipitation across the area. Initially, radar trends suggest the
steadiest precipitation will be across far nrn areas. However, RAP
and NAM-3kmWRF suggest coverage will also increase southward across
the Adirondacks into central/s-central VT toward 02-03Z tonight.
Vertical temperature profiles support a trend toward snow/sleet for
the northern half of the forecast area, with sleet/freezing rain
across portions of the nrn Adirondacks into s-central VT. Already
seeing some light gaze on paved surfaces with temperatures in the
mid-upr 20s and north-northeast winds 10-20mph. Roads should
deteriorate significantly after sunset as pavement temperatures cool
below freezing in most areas (the immediate CT River being a bit
more marginal). Thus, will see accumulations of snow/ice on roadways
overnight, and difficult travel tonight thru Sunday morning as a
result. Snow and sleet amounts generally 2-5" across the north with
generally one tenth or less of ice accumulation. Further south,
should see less snow and sleet (1-3") with potential for more ice
(0.2-0.3"). Generally not enough to create power outages, but ice on
trees and powerlines may become an issue toward Sunday night/Monday
morning as winds sharply increase along the western slopes of the
Green Mtns. We may see the ice in trees and powerlines contribute to
power outages during that time frame. Temperatures will generally
fall into the low-mid 20s tonight.
On Sunday, will see temperatures gradually climb into the 30-34F
range from the Champlain Valley wwd, with sub-freezing temps
generally locked in east of the Green Mtns. We'll see the sfc
boundary retreat northward as a warm front, with the steadier mixed
precipitation ending in the morning. That said, will still see
intermittent sleet/freezing rain across the region through the
afternoon. Roads should warm above freezing in the Champlain Valley,
allowing for some improvement by afternoon, but areas of icy
conditions will persist elsewhere through the day. Winds generally
becoming E to ESE at 5-10 mph.
Overall coverage of rainfall (with some pockets of ZR remaining east
of the Greens) increases Sunday night as large-scale trough and QG
forcing increases newd from the Ohio Valley. Also anticipate PW
values climbing to near 1" toward 12Z Monday. P-Gradient increases
sharply after midnight, and we'll see SE wind gusts potentially
increasing to around 50 mph along the western slopes of the Green
Mtns late Sunday night (and peaking during the day Monday - see next
section). This may begin to cause some localized wind damage during
the pre-dawn hours Monday. A High Wind Watch has been posted from
06Z Monday thru 03Z Tuesday. Will probably see orographically
enhanced precipitation on the eastern slopes of the Greens during
Sunday night given increasingly moist sely low-level flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 425 PM EDT Saturday...The active weather continues Monday
with multiple potential threats to the North Country. With this
update, confidence has increased in the high wind threat and so
a High Wind Watch has been issue for the western slopes of the
Greens and the Flood Watch remains in effect for Monday
afternoon through Tuesday.
Monday morning a warm front will lift north through the region
and we'll see the wintry precip turn to all rain across the
North Country. There will likely be breaks in the rain as the
energy lifts north in scattered fashion. Soundings show some
breaks in the cloud cover may be possible as there may be some
brief windows where 1000-500mb RH drops to 50% but I tend to
believe we'll see mostly cloudy skies. In the afternoon hours a
vort max will lift through the region and should be enough
dynamical support to generate periods of moderate to heavy rain
during the afternoon and evening hours. This additional rainfall
will combine with snow melt to cause additional rises in main
stem rivers with minor flooding possible. More details can be
found in the Hydro section. Total rainfall will be highly
dependent on the effect of the low level level jet which leads
us to potentially the main threat with this system.
A strong southeasterly low level 925-850mb jet will move into
the North Country during the overnight hours Sunday night and
persist Monday through the day. 925mb flow approaches 60-70kts
just downstream of both the Greens and the western slopes of the
Adirondacks. We are growing increasingly concerned with the
potential for those stronger winds to mix down to the surface
along with downsloping mountain breaking waves. A very strong
inversion will be set up just about the ridge tops of the Greens
and cross sections are showing a strong omega couplet on the
western slopes of the Greens. With strong southeasterly winds
already below the critical layer aloft, any mountain breaking
waves will become trapped and propagate some of the much
stronger winds all the way to the surface. The area of highest
concern is the across Rutland and eastern Addison counties where
mean boundary layer flow is upwards of 45-50kts. Given how the
system is developing its not out of the realm that we see
repetitive bursts of 50-60 mph gusts in that area. This is
especially concerning given the precursor events with saturated
soils and ice accumulation on powerlines and trees. The
potential currently exists for scattered power outages all along
the western slopes of the Greens with the highest potential
across the southern Greens. Strong gusty winds will be possible
across the rest of Vermont and northern New York but should only
be in the 25-35mph range. The winds will persist throughout the
daylight hours before the low level jet departs.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1216 PM EDT Saturday...The extended remains fairly active
through the mid week as the upper level cyclone remains over
the region through Wednesday. Expect daily chances for rain and
mountain snow showers until the upper level low moves off to our
east. Westerly flow will persist under the low and we'll
continue to see well below normal temps through Tuesday night.
By Wednesday afternoon the low should be departing as high
pressure starts to build in briefly. Expect southerly flow with
warm air advection to push temps back towards normal with highs
likely in the upper 40s to near 50 on both Thursday and Friday.
Either Thursday night or Friday the next clipper type system
will begin to push into the North Country and lead to more
widespread precip. Based on thermal progs it should be all rain
with no wintry precip to deal with. There's quite a bit of
timing differences so we'll need to continue to watch for how
that system evolves as the GFS brings in a faster much stronger
system with higher PWAT's and in turn quite a bit more qpf than
the EC. Those details will become clearer as we come out of the
weekend and see how the current low pressure system moves out of
the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Widespread wintry mixed precipitation
expected through the period. Depending on terminal p-type
generally expected to be either light snow, snow and sleet, or
freezing rain and sleet. P-type should transition to mainly
fzra after 12Z, and possibly even plain rain at warmest
terminals after 00Z. Cigs will mimic p-type variability though
mainly range from VFR to MVFR through the period with occasional
IFR visibilities this morning in any areas of more persistent
snow/sleet. Winds light to modest north/northeasterly, veering
to easterly over time this afternoon, then east to southeasterly
tonight. Southeasterly winds at KRUT terminal will gust in
excess of 25 kt late in the forecast period.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with
gusts to 45 kt. Likely RA, Chance FZRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Likely SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 445 AM EDT Saturday...A flood watch continues for Monday
afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Moderate to localized heavy
rainfall on Monday will combine with snow melt to cause sharp
rises on local waterways. Current forecasts indicate some rivers
may reach minor; those river gages with the best chances of
exceeding flood stage include the Winooski River at Essex
Junction (ESSV1), Otter Creek at Center Rutland (CENV1), the Mad
River at Moretown (MOOV1), and the East Branch of the Ausable
River at Ausable Forks (ASFN6). Persons with interests along
area waterways should remain alert for rapidly changing river
conditions and stay tuned to further developments on this
situation.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon
for VTZ001>012-016>019.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
VTZ001>012-016>019.
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for
VTZ011-016>019.
NY...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon
for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...DealHazardous weather outlook, Apr 14, 2:48 PM EDT, 12 hours 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Burlington VT 248 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>010-012-151900- Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia- Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Windsor- 248 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. VTZ011-016>019-151900- Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison- Eastern Rutland- 248 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. High Wind Watch. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Apr 14, 10:05 PM EDT, 5 hours before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1005 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1005 PM SNOW 4 NNE GREENSBORO 44.63N 72.28W
04/14/2018 M1.5 INCH ORLEANS VT COCORAHS
SNOW AND SLEET
&&
EVENT NUMBER BTV1801235
JMGLocal storm report, Apr 14, 10:14 PM EDT, 4 hours 51 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM SNOW MAIDSTONE 44.65N 71.57W
04/14/2018 M1.5 INCH ESSEX VT PUBLIC
&&
EVENT NUMBER BTV1801236
JMGThe office that day
Everything else NWS Burlington, VT issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 3:05 AM EDT | High Wind Warning | BTV | Addison, Chittenden, Franklin, Rutland | 37 hr |
Nearby
Wind Advisories in Vermont, 2018Wind Advisories in New York, 2018Every wind advisory in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.