Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Birmingham, AL

629 
WGUS74 KBMX 312352
FFSBMX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
652 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

ALC019-055-010230-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-180801T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Etowah AL-Cherokee AL-
652 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
ETOWAH AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

At 651 PM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding due to 
thunderstorms in Centre, Gadsden, Reece City, and Rainbow City. 
Flash flooding is expected to continue as moderate rainfall 
continues.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Gadsden, Rainbow City, Attalla, Hokes Bluff, Centre, Cedar Bluff,
Forney, Centre Municipal Airport, Glencoe, Steele, Leesburg, Reece
City, Sand Rock, Gaylesville, Tennala, Tabor Road, Cherokee Rock
Village, Pleasant Gap, Cornwall Furnace Park and Eastern Weiss Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 8540 3396 8549 3394 8550 3394 8553
      3396 8554 3397 8574 3393 8574 3396 8584
      3394 8590 3392 8590 3391 8614 3393 8617
      3396 8617 3420 8606 3420 8584 3424 8584
      3429 8546

$$

32/Davis

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Today through Wednesday night.

High rain chances are expected across most of the forecast area
today with the approach of a cold front and an unseasonably strong
upper-level trough. PWAT values around 2 inches should exist
generally along and southeast of Interstate 59, and this is where 80
POPs have been introduced. Currently radar depicts very little in
the way of shower activity, but convection should easily develop
later today with the aid of daytime heating. Some storms could be on
the stronger side this afternoon, perhaps with marginally severe
wind gusts, but the strongest 500mb flow seems displaced from the
expected area of greatest thunderstorm coverage.

If widespread convection occurs this afternoon, there may be a
bigger lull in activity after 7 PM than our current forecast
indicates. The GFS and ECMWF indicate synoptic-scale support for a
corridor of overnight showers and storms, but this will probably be
highly influenced by mesoscale events. Due to low forecast
confidence and the possibility of a lull, our forecast undercuts
most model guidance, with POPs at or below 50 percent after 1 AM.

The upper-level trough will weaken and become nearly stationary on
Wednesday, with deep southerly flow remaining in place across our
forecast area. Rain chances should generally be correlated with PWAT
values, ranging from 40 percent in the West to 80 percent in the
East.

87/Grantham

.LONG TERM...

Thursday and Friday.

The forward advancement of a frontal boundary will decrease and
eventually become quasistationary by Thursday morning. The upper-
level trough will have settled in over the region and continue to
provide southwesterly flow aloft, though decreasing in magnitude
through time. Given the positive tilt of the trough axis and NE/SW
orientation of the surface front, moisture availability will be
greater in our southeastern CWA where showers and thunderstorms are
likely during the afternoon/evening Thursday. Guidance indicates
PWATs as high as 2.20" in these areas, especially south of I-85.
Thus, precipitation coverage should generally decrease as you go
farther northwest where drier resides, particularly north and west
of I-20/I-59. Expect temperatures to top out in the mid to upper
80s, with drier areas seeing warmer highs. Showers and storms should
weaken and reduce in coverage overnight Thursday and could lead to
patchy fog into Friday morning.

Overall, Friday's conditions will resemble Thursday in a lot of
ways, though have decreased PoPs a bit as guidance suggests
weaker forcing. The upper-level trough should weaken and begin de-
amplification by this time as mid-level dynamics have moved off to
our east, though a relatively moist PBL will remain in place. H3
winds will remain in the 50-60 knot range and shear stratiform
rain from thunderstorms to the northeast. Forecasting a similar
geographic distribution of showers and thunderstorms during peak
heating Friday afternoon with areas generally south and east of
I-20/I-59 seeing greater probabilities. As with Thursday, not
expecting organized severe storms with convective parameters
remaining quiet. Synoptically it appears the fairly saturated
profiles, low mid-level lapse rates, and lack of wind shear keep
our overall concerns on localities receiving heavy rainfall.

Saturday through Tuesday.

The weekend will invite overall warmer conditions and lower
precipitation coverage into central AL. The upper-level trough will
continue weakening and become disconnected from the polar jet to our
north. Ridging to our east, positioned over the western
Atlantic/Bermuda, will slowly move west and build over the
southeastern CONUS. Despite mesoscale disagreement between the GFS &
ECMWF on exact placement of moisture pooling, Saturday PoPs will
remain around 50% with low-level southerly flow maintaining good
moisture availability in the area. Though, as we move ahead into
next week, this isn't the case as the ridge moves west over our
area, pushing greater southerly flow out into the plains. With lack
of flow aloft and continuing height rises, the long-term looks more
hot and humid with isolated to scattered airmass thunderstorms
during the afternoon/evening. Heat indices could approach the
century mark in some of our communities next week, especially in the
south. Highs are expected to increase to the upper 80s to lower 90s
by Sunday and continue into the work week.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

While the southern and eastern central Alabama terminals will be
the first to be affected by convection today, I do think that all
locations will eventually have at least one period of
thunderstorms over the next 24 hour TAF period. However, trying
to time individual thunderstorms (with accompanying lower ceilings
and visibility) will be problematic at best in this moist and
unsettled weather pattern. Will take full advantage of updates and
amendments to give some lead time, when it appears a storm is
heading for a particular location.

As for the overnight hours, models indicate most spots should see
a low cloud deck develop -- probably 1500 ft or lower, perhaps
lower than 1000 ft.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon &
evening. Higher than normal rain chances remain in the forecast
through Friday. RH values will remain higher as good moisture
resides throughout the area. Localized fog will be possible
during the morning hours where rainfall occurs during the previous
afternoon and evening. There are no fire weather concerns at this
time.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
140 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-012145-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
140 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms with heavy rain may produce flash flooding across
east Central Alabama, roughly along and east of a line from
Lowndesboro to Sylacauga to Centre, this evening and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Flash flooding will continue to be a concern across east Central
Alabama on Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Local activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be
needed through Thursday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
354 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

ALZ021-312130-
Cleburne AL-
354 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM CDT...

At 354 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Abernathy, or 11 miles east of Heflin, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ranburne, Fruithurst, Edwardsville, Muscadine, Abernathy, Mars Hills
and I 20 Welcome Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3363 8555 3390 8539 3350 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 213DEG 16KT 3362 8540

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
419 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

ALZ025-312145-
Shelby AL-
419 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM CDT...

At 419 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Oak Mountain State Park to near Maylene.
These storms were nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Alabaster, Pelham, Helena, Montevallo, American Village, Maylene,
Shelby County Airport, Oak Mountain State Park, Joe Tucker Park,
Ballantrae, Camp Branch, Saddle Lake Farms, Siluria, Alabaster
Veterans Park, Bounds Lake, Saginaw and Dogwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3325 8698 3326 8696 3333 8672 3329 8662
      3306 8693 3308 8693 3308 8695 3310 8695
      3310 8697 3316 8697 3316 8698 3317 8703
      3319 8702 3324 8703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 272DEG 2KT 3330 8671 3320 8692

32/Davis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
437 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W CENTRE              34.16N 85.69W
07/31/2018                   CHEROKEE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN WITH ONE LANE BLOCKED. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. SUB-SEVERE WINDS
            PROBABLE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
440 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

ALZ018-312215-
Etowah AL-
440 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ETOWAH COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

At 440 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rainbow City, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gadsden, Rainbow City, Glencoe, Gadsden Mall, Neely Henry Lake,
Southside, Cobb City, Gadsden Steam Plant, Big Wills Creek and
Gadsden Water Works.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3392 8590 3391 8590 3391 8593 3392 8593
      3392 8595 3391 8595 3391 8597 3390 8597
      3389 8607 3400 8609 3407 8598
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 246DEG 5KT 3395 8605

32/Davis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
512 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

ALZ018-312245-
Etowah AL-
512 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ETOWAH COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Tabor Road to near Steele.
These storms were nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Gadsden, Rainbow City, Attalla, Hokes Bluff, Glencoe, Reece City,
Ballplay, Tabor Road, Gadsden Mall, Noccalula Falls, Neely Henry
Lake, Southside, Gadsden Steam Plant, Big Wills Creek, Crudup,
Gadsden Municipal Airport, Keener, Black Creek, Gadsden Water Works
and Wilsonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 8584 3413 8580 3412 8579 3410 8580
      3399 8574 3394 8574 3396 8584 3395 8585
      3394 8590 3393 8590 3391 8615 3393 8616
      3420 8603 3420 8584
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 271DEG 4KT 3418 8597 3394 8612

32/Davis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             REECE CITY              34.07N 86.03W
07/31/2018  E0.50 INCH       ETOWAH             AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DIME SIZE HAIL AND 49 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED
            AT THE REECE CITY FIRE DEPT. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

TG