Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2018
Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Gaylord, MI
NWS Gaylord, MI issued this winter storm warning at Dec 31, 2018, 10:23 AM EST for 10 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Dec 31, 2018, 2:00 PM EST. It was in force for 11 hr. 15 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 31, 2018, 10:23 AM EST (15:23 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 31, 2018, 2:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Jan 1, 2019, 12:49 AM EST
- In force
- 11 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Gaylord, MI
Counties Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 6:00 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 4.8 | Mancelona, MI | |
| Dec 31, 6:00 PM EST | SNOW 8.1 | 1 Nw Waters, MI | CO-OP OBSERVER STATION APXM4, 9 SSW GAYLORD. |
| Dec 31, 8:30 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 5.7 | 4 Ese Traverse City, MI | |
| Dec 31, 9:01 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 2.5 | 2 W Alpena, MI | |
| Dec 31, 9:30 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 9.5 | 2 Nnw Kewadin, MI | |
| Dec 31, 10:00 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 4.5 | 2 W Alpena, MI | |
| Dec 31, 10:00 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 9 | 1 S Waters, MI | |
| Dec 31, 10:00 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 9 | Bellaire, MI | |
| Dec 31, 10:33 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 6.3 | 1 E Grawn, MI | TREE BRANCHES ALSO COMING DOWN FROM WET SNOW AND WIND GUSTS. |
| Dec 31, 11:04 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 9 | 3 Nne Otsego Lake State, MI | |
| Jan 1, 12:00 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 6.3 | 2 Nnw Roscommon, MI | |
| Jan 1, 12:00 AM EST | SNOW 7 | 4 Nw Devils Lake, MI | MESONET STATION ALPM4, SNOW PAID OBSERVER FOR KAPN. |
| Jan 1, 12:18 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 7 | 5 W Alpena, MI | |
| Jan 1, 12:19 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 6.5 | 1 W Ossineke, MI | |
| Jan 1, 12:21 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 8.1 | 1 Nw Waters, MI |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1308 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 85 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 200 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 235 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
122 WWUS43 KAPX 311523 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1023 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 MIZ018-021>024-026>030-312330- /O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.181231T2100Z-190101T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0007.181231T2100Z-190101T1200Z/ Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Grand Traverse- Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Including the cities of Rogers City, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, and Harrisville 1023 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation early this afternoon...changing to all snow by mid-late afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches. A glaze of ice is also possible. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Expect significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. && $$ MIZ008-015-312330- /O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.190101T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Chippewa-Mackinac- Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace 1023 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are expected. * WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ016-017-019-312330- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.181231T2100Z-190101T1200Z/ Emmet-Cheboygan-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, and Charlevoix 1023 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation early this afternoon...changing to all snow by early evening. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected. * WHERE...Emmet, Cheboygan and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ020-025-031-312330- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.181231T2100Z-190101T1200Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Manistee- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Manistee 1023 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation early this afternoon...changing to all snow by mid-late afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. A glaze of ice is also possible. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee Counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ036-041-042-312330- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.181231T2100Z-190101T1200Z/ Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Including the cities of Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish 1023 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 2 inches, with localized amounts up to 4 inches in Iosco County. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch is also possible. * WHERE...Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac Counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel conditions, including during the evening commute. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ032>035-312330- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.181231T2100Z-190101T1200Z/ Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw- Including the cities of Cadillac, Lake City, Houghton Lake, and West Branch 1023 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation this afternoon...changing to all snow this evening. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch is also possible. * WHERE...Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon and Ogemaw Counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel conditions, including during the evening commute. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
4 follow-up statements
978 WWUS43 KAPX 311848 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 148 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 MIZ018-021>024-026>030-010300- /O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0007.181231T1900Z-190101T1200Z/ Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Grand Traverse- Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Including the cities of Rogers City, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, and Harrisville 148 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation early this afternoon...changing to all snow by mid-late afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches. A glaze of ice is also possible. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Expect significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. && $$ MIZ016-017-019-010300- /O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.181231T2000Z-190101T1200Z/ Emmet-Cheboygan-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, and Charlevoix 148 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation early this afternoon...changing to all snow by early evening. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected. * WHERE...Emmet, Cheboygan and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ020-025-031-010300- /O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.181231T1900Z-190101T1200Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Manistee- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Manistee 148 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation early this afternoon...changing to all snow by mid-late afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected, with localized amounts up to 7 inches possible. A glaze of ice is also expected. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ036-041-042-010300- /O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.181231T1900Z-190101T1200Z/ Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Including the cities of Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish 148 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 2 inches, with localized amounts up to 4 inches in Iosco County. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch is also possible. * WHERE...Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel conditions, including during the evening commute. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ032>035-010300- /O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.181231T1900Z-190101T1200Z/ Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw- Including the cities of Cadillac, Lake City, Houghton Lake, and West Branch 148 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation this afternoon...changing to all snow this evening. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch is also possible. * WHERE...Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon and Ogemaw Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel conditions, including during the evening commute. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ008-015-010300- /O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.181231T2300Z-190101T1200Z/ Chippewa-Mackinac- Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace 148 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches across southeastern Chippewa and Mackinac Counties. * WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
630 WWUS43 KAPX 312124 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 424 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 MIZ018-022>024-028>030-010530- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Including the cities of Rogers City, Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Grayling, Mio, and Harrisville 424 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation...changing to all snow by early evening. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. A glaze of ice is also possible. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Expect significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. && $$ MIZ021-026-027-010530- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Antrim-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska- Including the cities of Mancelona, Traverse City, and Kalkaska 424 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation...changing to all snow by mid-late afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. A glaze of ice is also possible. * WHERE...Antrim, Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Expect significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. && $$ MIZ016-017-019-010530- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Emmet-Cheboygan-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, and Charlevoix 424 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected. * WHERE...Emmet, Cheboygan and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ020-025-031-010530- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Manistee- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Manistee 424 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation...changing to all snow by early evening. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected, with localized amounts up to 7 inches possible. A glaze of ice is also expected. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ036-041-042-010530- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Including the cities of Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish 424 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 2 inches, with localized amounts up to 4 inches in Iosco County. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch is also possible. * WHERE...Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel conditions, including during the evening commute. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ032>035-010530- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw- Including the cities of Cadillac, Lake City, Houghton Lake, and West Branch 424 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation...changing to all snow this evening. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch is also possible. * WHERE...Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon and Ogemaw Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel conditions, including during the evening commute. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ008-015-010530- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.181231T2300Z-190101T1200Z/ Chippewa-Mackinac- Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace 424 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches across southeastern Chippewa and Mackinac Counties. * WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
366 WWUS43 KAPX 010253 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 953 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 MIZ018-022>024-028>030-011100- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Including the cities of Rogers City, Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Grayling, Mio, and Harrisville 953 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Expect significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. && $$ MIZ021-026-027-011100- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Antrim-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska- Including the cities of Mancelona, Traverse City, and Kalkaska 953 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected. * WHERE...Antrim, Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Expect significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ016-017-019-011100- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Emmet-Cheboygan-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, and Charlevoix 953 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. * WHERE...Emmet, Cheboygan and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ020-025-031-011100- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Manistee- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Manistee 953 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ036-041-042-011100- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Including the cities of Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish 953 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow with some mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to 2 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze are expected. * WHERE...Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ032>035-011100- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw- Including the cities of Cadillac, Lake City, Houghton Lake, and West Branch 953 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow...possibly heavy at times. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon and Ogemaw Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ MIZ008-015-011100- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Chippewa-Mackinac- Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace 953 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of are expected. * WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
908 WWUS43 KAPX 010549 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1249 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2019 MIZ018-021>024-026>030-010700- /O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Grand Traverse- Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Including the cities of Rogers City, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, and Harrisville 1249 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... All of the heavy snow has finished, but some light snow will continue to near daybreak, but with little to no accumulation. $$ MIZ008-015>017-019-020-025-031>036-041-042-010700- /O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190101T1200Z/ Chippewa-Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Benzie- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, St. Ignace, Petoskey, Cheboygan, Charlevoix, Northport, Frankfort, Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish 1249 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2019 All of the heavy snow has finished, but some light snow will continue to near daybreak, but with little to no accumulation. $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Dec 31, 10:13 AM EST, 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 31, 10:13 AM EST, 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1013 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018
Our well-advertised New Year's Eve storm system remains on track
as 12z sfc analysis reveals low pressure centered across southwest
Missouri with precipitation continuing to blossom to our south,
including recent radar returns and mixed precip reports as close
as Ludington and Big Rapids. Much of the inherited forecast
remains on track with a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain and
sleet at precipitation's onset late this morning through early
afternoon...gradually transitioning to all snow (longest
transition near Saginaw Bay given warm sfc temperatures).
Have gradually bumped up snow amounts across northern lower
(mainly along and north of M-72) given 12z hi-res guidance (3km
NAM, RAP, HRRR) all showing a healthy axis of QPF draped between
the M-32 and M-72 corridors. Given increased travel for the New
Year's Eve holiday, the potential for 1"+ per hour snowfall rates
and the wet/heavy nature of the snow (SLRs near 10:1)...have opted
to upgrade parts of northern Michigan to a Winter Storm Warning...
primarily between the M-32 and M-72 corridors for now. Also added
eastern upper into the Winter Weather Advisory given the
potential for 3-4"+ snow amounts across southeastern sections of
Chip/Mack counties (lesser amounts west) combined with the NYE
holiday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 324 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018
High impact weather potential: Several inches of wet snow
accumulation late today through tonight. Possible period of freezing
rain in parts of the southern CWA. Travel difficulties certainly
anticipated.
Pattern synopsis and forecast:
Shallow mid level ridging was seen from the SE states through the
mid Mississippi valley early this morning, while troughing was seen
over the Rockies into the south central Plains where a shortwave
trough was helping aid strong low pressure. A frontal boundary
extended NE of this low pressure into SD/MN where another weaker
area of low pressure resided. The cold front then extended further
NE through the upper Mississippi valley to north of Lake Superior.
There was light snow rotating around the weaker sfc low, as well as
with the frontal zone all the way into western Lake Superior, where
low level convergence, weak WAA and vorticity were located. Heavier
precipitation/rain was associated with the strong sfc low in the
south central Plains, where much stronger forcing from DPVA, upper
divergence (right entrance region of 120+kt jet) and stronger WAA
was occurring. In nrn Michigan, we still were seeing the last
vestiges of lake clouds were laid out across portions of eastern
upper Michigan (low level temperatures were warming and killing the
overlake instability). Otherwise, we were seeing increased mid level
clouds.
Skies will continue to increase in mid level clouds this morning out
ahead of the storm system, but will gradually moisten deeper into
the low levels this afternoon and evening as the system reaches far
srn lower Michigan. Late afternoon and evening still look to be the
time of the greatest forcing mentioned above. We will get into the
WAA, strong DPVA and upper divergence with maximum lift pinpointing
the DGZ. Temperatures are to be such that the precipitation starts
out as rain and snow, with what looks like a decent enough chance
for a period of freezing rain to impact areas in and around
Cadillac, Houghton Lake and West Branch, possibly as far north as
Grayling. This would primarily be this afternoon when there is a
warm nose above freezing aloft with a max temp around 1.5C, but 3000
feet deep while sfc temps hover right around 32F. Tough call here,
as 1 degree cooler aloft or 1 degree warmer at the sfc could
eradicate freezing rain. The chance is certainly there however.
Closer to Saginaw Bay, sfc temperatures will be above freezing this
afternoon with that warm nose aloft, for all rain. That warm nose
definitely cools off quite quickly through the remainder of the
evening, based on the latest fcst soundings, and precipitation
changes over to all snow. The max QPF in latest data has shifted
north, and now snowfall amount will largely be 5-7" across most of
nrn lower, and quite possibly 4-5" in eastern sections of Chippewa
and Mackinac counties of eastern upper, lesser amounts in the
western sections. Snowfall drops off quite quickly overnight as the
storm system presses further east into the eastern Great Lakes.
With the warmer temperatures/more rain closer to Saginaw Bay, could
see taking some of those counties out of the advisory, same is true
for Manistee and Benzie counties, but confidence is not quite that
high enough to do that at this time. The larger snowfall amounts in
the eastern sections of Chip/Mack really don't cover a large enough
area of those counties to warrant inclusion into the advisory.
Obviously the advisory continues elsewhere. Snow amounts will not be
high enough to reach warning criteria, but all areas need to be
prepared for definite travel hazards for New Years Eve. This will be
a wet snow with slippery roads well more than likely.
Highs in the 33F to 36F range across nrn Michigan, with lows tonight
in increasing cold advection ranging from 10F to 15F in eastern
upper to the middle 20s near Saginaw Bay and portions of the GTV Bay
region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018
...Quieter weather returns...
High Impact Weather Potential...Low.
Primary Forecast Concerns...Extent and duration of northerly flow
lake effect.
Despite pronounced subsidence/drying there may be a little northerly
flow lake effect behind the departing system, especially Tuesday
morning. Accumulations should be under an inch. Activity should then
diminish in the afternoon with dry air overwhelming over lake
instability. A large area of high pressure (1030 mb) moves across
the region Tuesday night resulting in light winds, excellent
radiational cooling and cold temperatures. As the high moves off to
the east Wednesday, temperatures will begin to rebound but brisk
southwest winds will make it feel rather chilly.
Highs Tuesday only ranging from the middle teens north to the middle
20s south. Lows Tuesday night ranging from the single digits to the
mid teens (with a few spots likely dropping below zero). Highs
Wednesday in the lower and mid 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018
...Back to the relative lull in the winter...
High Impact Weather Potential...Low.
After the active weather of New Year's Eve it looks like we slip
right back into the quiet weather regime with systems again passing
by to our north and south. Milder temperatures look like a good bet
with only slight chances for a few snow or possibly even rain
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 555 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018
Skies will increase in mid and upper level clouds through the
morning, out ahead of a storm system that will lift from the south
central Plains and into the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning.
This system will result in low end MVFR and IFR CIGS and VSBYS,
resulting from deep moisture and a mix of rain and snow (for the
afternoon), that will change over to just snow by this evening with
snowfall rates that will likely reach an inch per hour or more.
Liquid to snow ratios will be around 10:1, with total snowfall of 3
to 5 inches for all airports, lowest amount at MBL. Snowfall
intensities drop off decently after midnight as the system will be
working further east of us in the eastern Great Lakes.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018
Winds then turn more easterly today, the increase to advisory speeds
out of the NE tonight, ahead of a storm system that tracks from the
central Plains through the eastern Great Lakes. This system will
bring moderate to heavy rain and snow, later this afternoon through
tonight, with precipitation type changing to only snow late tonight.
The gradient starts loosening up through the day Tuesday and
certainly Tuesday night, as higher pressure moves into the Great
Lakes.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for MIZ016-017-019-020-025-031>036-041-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for MIZ018-021>024-026>030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for MIZ008-015.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Tuesday for LSZ321-322.
&&
UPDATE...MG
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMDHazardous weather outlook, Dec 31, 3:29 AM EST, 6 hours 54 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 329 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041- 042-010830- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa- Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim- Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford- Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco- Gladwin-Arenac- 329 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan... eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A wintry mix will move into northern lower Michigan this afternoon, then change over to all snow by this evening. Holiday travel will be impacted. Please see the latest winter weather advisory for further details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways: Online: weather.gov/gaylord Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord && For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 3:48 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | APX | 11 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2018Every winter storm warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.