Wind Advisory 7, NWS Amarillo, TX

832 
WWUS74 KAMA 232256
NPWAMA

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
556 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

OKZ001-TXZ001-006-011-016-240100-
/O.CON.KAMA.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-180324T0100Z/
Cimarron-Dallam-Hartley-Oldham-Deaf Smith-
Including the cities of Boise City, Keyes, Dalhart, Hartley, 
Channing, Vega, and Hereford
556 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* Timing...Through 8 PM CDT this evening. 

* Winds...Sustained southwest winds of 35 to 39 mph with gusts to
  near 50 mph are expected until around 8 PM across the western
  Oklahoma Panhandle as well as the western Texas Panhandle. These
  winds will diminish after 8 PM CDT this evening. 

* Impacts...Sudden wind gusts can cause drivers to lose 
  control... especially in lightweight or high profile vehicles. 
  Strong winds can cause blowing dust...reducing visibilities... 
  and cause flying debris. Light outdoor objects could be moved 
  by the strong winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should exercise caution while driving in the wind
advisory area. Stay alert to sudden gusts of wind which may cause
you to lose control of your vehicle. Extra attention should be
given to drivers of high profile vehicles. Secure outdoor items.

&&

$$

Andrade

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Cycle:

VFR conditions expected through the period with cirrus decreasing
this afternoon. Winds will be mostly light and variable through
the mid morning hours. Around mid to late morning, southwest winds
will increase to around 20 to 30 knots with the strongest winds at
KDHT where gusts may exceed 40 knots at times. A weak Pacific
front will switch winds to the northwest at 10 to 20 knots around
sunset for the northern terminals and a few hours later for KAMA.

Ward

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 423 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Fire weather remains the immediate threat for the forecast area.
Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow.
Followed by elevated fire weather Saturday, and then critical fire
weather on Sunday. Next week we get a shift towards precipitation
chances which would be a very welcoming change to the Panhandles.
Also, it appears we will break some temperature records tomorrow for
March 23rd (See Climate section below).

A surface low will emerge in eastern Colorado and make its way into
western Kansas by Friday afternoon. The pressure gradient across the
Panhandles will not be that strong due to the surface trough
position and isobar spread, however, steep lapse rates will
result in deep mixing and hence strong wind speeds. These strong
westerly wind speeds (approaching possible high wind warning
criteria) of 30 to 40 mph with gusts around 50-60 mph combined
with low relative humidity values will result in extremely
critical fire weather conditions Friday. Forecast soundings
suggest mixing will result in strong momentum transfer to the
surface, and 50 to 60 mph gusts are not out of the question for
perhaps a couple hours tomorrow afternoon. Any fire starts could
result in rapid fire growth. We currently have a high wind watch
out to cover these strong wind speeds, this could easily turn into
a high wind warning or perhaps a wind advisory. The big picture
here is that extreme caution should be used with any activities
which could result in sparks/flames that create a potential fire
start. Please see the Fire Weather section below for more details.

Saturday could turn into an elevated to perhaps spotty critical fire
weather day for far western portions of the Texas Panhandle.
However, Sunday and Monday are more likely our next threat for
fire weather due to breezy wind speeds and low relative humidity
values. Stay tuned. Fire weather focus for the time being should
be Friday afternoon.

Some day-to-day consistency as started to emerge with
precipitation chances for next week. There are some discrepancies
with regards to timing and overall chances, but the big picture is
we have chances Monday night through Wednesday night. We could
actually get measurable precipitation that would be "noticeable"
for much of the drought stricken area. However, don't get your
hopes up too much, as it appears now we will still end up MUCH
below normal for the month of March. To put this into perspective,
Amarillo city area normal for the month of March is 1.39 inches
of moisture. We would be fortunate to end the month with half of
this value. Anything is good at this point since we have had only
a hundredth of an inch since October around the Amarillo city
area, and the same can be said for much of the forecast area which
is in extreme drought. Also noteworthy is the fact we could see a
mixture of precipitation. Snow, rain/snow, and some thunderstorms
across the Panhandles may result next week over the first three
days. Its too early too say with much confidence, but severe
weather appears unlikely at this time, and its too early to say
weather snowfall amounts will amount to anything.

Guerrero

FIRE WEATHER...

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow
for much of the forecast area due to a combination of strong wind
speeds, low relative humidity values, and high energy release
component (ERC) values. Twenty foot wind speeds will be westerly
at 30 to 40 mph with gusts around 50 mph (perhaps as high as 60
mph). A sharp gradient in RH values could result tomorrow due to
the dryline not progressing all the way east of the forecast area,
so some areas across the Texas Panhandle could be as high as 20
percent in the afternoon. Nevertheless, dry conditions are
expected tomorrow. ERC values should easily be in the 85th to low
90th percentile. Given these strong parameters, tomorrow will
result in extremely critical fire weather conditions, especially
across western portions of the Panhandles.

Guerrero

CLIMATE...

Records in jeopardy tomorrow:

Amarillo  83    (set in 1910/2002)           |    Forecast is 89
Borger    84    (set in 2017)                |    Forecast is 90
Dalhart   88    (set in 2017)                |    Forecast is 84
Guymon    88    (unofficially set in 2017)   |    Forecast is 88

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
     the following zones: Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...
     Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf
     Smith...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...
     Potter...Randall...Sherman.

     High Wind Watch from 11 AM CDT this morning through this evening
     for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...
     Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
     the following zones: Beaver.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     the following zones: Cimarron...Texas.

&&

7/3

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
348 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-232115-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
348 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are
expected today across the entire combined Panhandles. The
strongest winds are expected across the western one-third of the
Panhandles, where a wind advisory will be in effect through early
this evening. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for the all of
the Panhandles through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for the western
Panhandles on Saturday.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for the all of the
Panhandles on Sunday and Monday, with critical fire weather
conditions possible for the southwestern half of the Combined
Panhandles on Sunday, and for the western one-third on Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Panhandles
Monday night. At this time, severe weather looks unlikely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions today, and
then elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Sunday and
Monday.

Cockrell