Small Craft Advisory 430, NWS Juneau, AK

273 
FZAK51 PAJK 131833 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1033 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-140345-
1033 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A strong front tracks across the eastern gulf and panhandle from
north to south through Monday night. The front will produce
heavy rain and increased winds. High pressure will rebuild over
the AK gulf starting late Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ011-140345-
Glacier Bay-
1033 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing in the evening. Gusts to 35 
kt in the evening. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ012-140345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
1033 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-140345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
1033 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing late. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ021-140345-
Icy Strait-
1033 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SW late. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the
evening. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ022-140345-
Cross Sound-
1033 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt in the morning, then
becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Rain in the
evening. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-140345-
Stephens Passage-
1033 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40
kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ032-140345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
1033 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the evening. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ033-140345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
1033 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ034-140345-
Frederick Sound-
1033 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ035-140345-
Sumner Strait-
1033 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.TODAY...W wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ036-140345-
Clarence Strait-
1033 AM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft early in the morning then 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

708 
FZAK51 PAJK 132348
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 PM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-141700-
348 PM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A strong front will continue to track south over the Panhandle
through Monday night, producing windy conditions and heavy rain
at times. High pressure will rebuild over the Gulf of Alaska
beginning late Tuesday.  

$$

PKZ011-141700-
Glacier Bay-
348 PM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft late. Rain in the evening.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-141700-
Northern Lynn Canal-
348 PM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-141700-
Southern Lynn Canal-
348 PM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas
4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-141700-
Icy Strait-
348 PM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SW late. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the
evening. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-141700-
Cross Sound-
348 PM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-141700-
Stephens Passage-
348 PM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-141700-
Northern Chatham Strait-
348 PM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft late. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-141700-
Southern Chatham Strait-
348 PM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 5 ft building 
to 8 ft. Rain in the evening.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-141700-
Frederick Sound-
348 PM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft
or less. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-141700-
Sumner Strait-
348 PM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-141700-
Clarence Strait-
348 PM AKDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming SE and increasing to 20 kt late. 
Seas building to 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
133 PM AKDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/...A very fast moving gale
force weather front is rapidly approaching Southeast Alaska from
the west this afternoon. The associated moisture plume extends
well south and west to the low latitudes of the western Pacific
and is clearly tropical in nature. Precipitable water values over
the next 60 hours are running anywhere from two to three standard
deviations above normal. As the front approaches the northeast
gulf coast, moisture will train in over the coastline and result
in heavy rain from Cape Suckling to Cape Fairweather between this
afternoon and tomorrow morning. Heavy rain will spread south and
inland through Monday afternoon before beginning to diminish
Monday night. Rainfall totals range from 1 to more than 3 inches
north of Frederick Sound with heaviest amounts near Yakutat,
Elfin Cove, and Juneau. Storm totals between 0.5 and 1.0 inches
extend as far south as Sumner Strait with a quarter inch or less
for the southern Panhandle. Southeast waterways, especially those
north of Frederick Sound, will certainly see rises from this
atmospheric river, but flooding concerns are currently low owing
to the speed with which the heavy rains will move through the
forecast area. Exceptions to this will be the more flashy creeks
and streams which experience rapid and large responses to heavy
rain, such as Montana Creek and Jordan Creek near Juneau. The current
RFC stage forecast for Jordan Creek reaches bank full by Monday
mid-evening.

Winds associated with the front are expected to be past peak
strength by the time it arrives over the eastern gulf. As such,
forecast winds over the eastern gulf are 30 kts or less out of the
southwest in advance of the front as is progresses east and south.
A strong southerly pressure gradient caused by the interaction
between the front, low pressure over the Yukon, and a surface high
south and east of the front will result in 40 to 45 kt southerly
gales over Lynn Canal from late tonight through Monday evening.
Expect windy conditions in Haines and very wind conditions in
Skagway and along the Chilkat Peninsula south of Haines with wind
gusts of 40 to 50 mph. 850 mb winds also suggesting that low level wind
shear will also be an issue from Monday morning to Tuesday morning
for the outer coast as well as the Juneau area.

No changes to pressure. Increased inner channels winds associated
with frontal passage for Sunday night and Monday, resulting in
additional small craft advisories on the inside. Non-diurnal
temperature curve as created by the previous shift was retained
without change. PoP and QPF for Monday onward updated with a
blend of GFS and SREF. Overall forecast confidence in this heavy
rain event is above average.

.LONG TERM.../ Tuesday through Sunday / The wet pattern continues
across most of the Panhandle through the week. The GFS and ECMWF
hint at a break in the weather for mainly the central Panhandle
from Gustavus down to Sumner Strait area. WPC is still going with
a wetter solution. Nudged POP with GFS and ECMWF through Friday
and then added some WPC in through Sunday.

The front is consistent with the speed and movement for the last
couple of days, so little change was needed for temperatures.
Slightly warmer than normal temperatures, by a couple of degrees,
will continue through the week. Temperatures on Thursday will need
a closer look depending on how much clearing ends up developing.

Extended winds using WPC with the difference still being seen
between model solutions for next weekend. Just a few small changes
in the earlier periods. SCA possible for Lynn Canal early
Tuesday and then diminishing, then winds of 15 kt or less through
Saturday. Winds start increasing over the gulf Sunday and likely
in Northern Lynn Canal, as well.

Confidence is above average through Wednesday, then average
after that.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from late tonight through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-022-031>033-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

Fritsch/KV

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