Gale Warning 13, NWS Juneau, AK

974 
FZAK52 PAJK 060348 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
648 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-062200-
648 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
An area of low pressure over the southeastern gulf will slowly
drift northward and lift over SE AK tonight. A second front will
approach from the west late Friday night and impact SE AK
Saturday morning. A weak surface ridge of high pressure will 
then build over the eastern gulf Sunday afternoon as a low 
develops near Haida Gwaii.  

$$

PKZ041-062200-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
648 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing late. Seas 15 ft subsiding to
11 ft late. Rain late. 
.SAT...S wind increasing to 35 kt in the morning, shifting W in 
the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-062200-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
648 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming S late. Seas 13 ft.
Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-062200-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
648 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming S late. Seas 10 ft.
Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt decreasing to 10 kts late. Seas 13 ft.
SW swell.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-062200-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
648 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 8 ft.
Rain late. 
.SAT...E wind 35 kt decreasing to SW 20 kts in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt decreasing to 10 kts late. Seas 13 ft.
SW swell. Rain showers in the evening. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-062200-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
648 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas
13 ft. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft. 



$$

618 
FZAK52 PAJK 061310
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
410 AM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-070715-
410 AM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weather front over the eastern gulf will move over SE AK
Saturday. Northerly winds will increase over the inner channels
on Sunday as a high pressure builds over the Yukon and a low 
pressure drifts N near Haida Gwaii.  

$$

PKZ041-070715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
410 AM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. W
swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-070715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
410 AM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
13 ft. Rain early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. W
swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-070715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
410 AM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the morning, then
becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. Rain early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-070715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
410 AM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 35 kt in the morning then becoming
S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Rain showers in
the evening. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 12 ft.
SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-070715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
410 AM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 35 kt in the morning then decreasing
to 25 kt in the late afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
SW swell. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

117 
FZAK52 PAJK 070042
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
342 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-071845-
342 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weather front along the outer coast of SE AK will move inland
Sat evening, then slowly weaken over the inner channels Sat
night. Northerly winds will increase over the inner channels on 
Sun as a high pressure builds over the Yukon and low pressure 
drifts N to near Haida Gwaii. 

$$

PKZ041-071845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
342 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. W
swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-071845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
342 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. W
swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-071845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
342 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain early in the evening. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.MON NIGHT...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...NE gale to 40 kt becoming SE. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-071845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
342 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Rain in the
evening. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 12 ft.
SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-071845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
342 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Rain
in the evening, then rain showers late. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt late. Seas 10 ft. SW
swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
257 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

.SHORT TERM...According to current satellite imagery, the upper
level shortwave and its associated surface low located along the
western coast of Baranof Island has continued to lift across the
panhandle. The low center, now slightly less organized, can still
be seen cyclonically spinning just west of Sitka, but the feature
is continuing to weaken. Precipitation has transitioned to more
of a showery regime due to colder air wrapping into the low aloft,
which we can see from upper level potential temperature analysis.
On water vapor, the next front that will impact is currently
advancing across the gulf. This front is associated with a
shortwave embedded within a much larger trough positioned over the
Bering Sea. A moderately strong upper level jet streak is helping
to strengthen this shortwave, providing additional divergence
aloft, and providing additional moisture advection along the
front.

Winds, for the most part, will remain somewhat breezy through the
next few days, as once one front exits another will move in behind.
These frontal passages will cause brief bursts of wind along the
gulf marine waters and throughout the inner channels. Winds will
reach gale levels in some areas, especially along the eastern gulf
and through Clarence Strait, as our next front pushes through
early tomorrow morning. In addition, most of the central and
southern inner channel winds will reach Small Craft Advisory
levels and then rapidly diminish tomorrow afternoon as the front
exits the panhandle. Unfortunately, conditions should remain
fairly wet with this next front, and the challenge will be
determining what precipitation type will fall. Low level cold air
advection behind the weakening low will bring in sufficient cold
air at the surface to push things back below freezing, so precip
may start as snow and then transition to rain or start as a
rain/snow mix. But fear not! As the front leaves and our high
continues to build back in over Canada beginning Monday, we should
see a return to offshore flow. This means drier conditions and
cooler temperatures should be on the way for the early part of the
work week.

We did not make any significant or extensive changes in the
Saturday through Sunday timeframe. Most of our efforts were
concentrated on the Sunday into early Monday timeframe. There was
some model spread regarding a surface low that develops near
Haida Gwaii Sunday night, which added some uncertainty to the
forecast. Generally, we decided to use a NAM/GFS blend, with a
heavier emphasis on GFS, to add updates to the forecast.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday night/ Overall upper level
pattern remains relatively the same as yesterday for early to mid
next week. Split flow pattern is dominate with a stationary ridge
over the Alaska mainland and an active south branch over the
gulf and NE Pacific with several short wave troughs moving east.
There is a general westward trend showing up with the position of
the upper ridge in recent model runs setting it up over the
central Alaska interior rather then right along the Alaska/Yukon
border like it was yesterday.

At the surface, the westward trend of the ridge is rather
significant for the panhandle as guidance is significantly colder
then what was depicted yesterday. The new scenario has a much
stronger cold air mass dropping into the southern Yukon early next
week bringing colder temperatures Tue and Wed. I began a drop in
temperatures at that time (around 3 to 5 degrees in some cases),
but I did not go as far down as models were suggesting to see if
future runs continue to support this new trend.

Otherwise, a generally drier forecast remains in place thanks to
the northerly winds still expected over much of the area at that
time and most storms directed to the south by the active southern
branch. Used more ECMWF with some Nam early on as the GFS was too
inconsistent with some features run to run. WPC used farther out.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ027.
     Strong Wind Saturday afternoon for AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-034-035.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

Voveris/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau