Wind Advisory 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

753 
WWAK73 PAFG 111235
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 AM AKST Sun Feb 11 2018

AKZ226-120600-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180211T2100Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0010.180212T0600Z-180213T0300Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
335 AM AKST Sun Feb 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST
MONDAY...


The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST
Monday. 

* LOCATION...Near Alaska Range Passes west of the Tok Cutoff.

* WINDS...South gusting to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase this evening and diminish late 
  Sunday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
259 PM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Good agreement in the short term, but run to run changes
over the past couple solutions have intensified the wave that is
moving over the Chukchi Sea, and the wave that is moving up the
West Coast and will move across the interior Sunday. Solutions
agree on breaking down the ridge Sunday and that will lead to a
more active and snowy pattern setting up for most of the forecast
area. The 09/12Z surface solutions initialized well against the
09/18Z analysis as far as positions are concerned, but the high
over the highs over the Copper River Basin, Upper Yukon River, and
Upper Yukon Flats are all about 5 mb stronger, and the leeside
lows north of the Alaska and Brooks Ranges are about 5 mb deeper.
lows , once again they were about 4 mb weaker than the analysis.
Precipitation solutions are similar, so will use the SREF for the
increased probabilities that it produces over the other solutions,
and use a blend for precipitation amounts.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the state will be breaking down
and moving off to the southeast tonight and Sunday. 557 dam high
over the Wrangell Mountains will move south and merge with the
primary ridge over the Eastern Pacific Sunday. A shortwave over
the Bering Strait associated with a 529 dam low over the Chukotsk
Peninsula will ride up over the top of the ridge as it recedes
and lie from Wrangel Island to Anaktuvuk Pass this evening, then
from #00 nm northwest of Point Barrow to Nuiqsut by Sunday morning
before merging with broad low pressure over the Canadian
Archipelago. A 519 dam low over Cold Bay will move to St Matthew
Island by Sunday morning as the associated shortwave moves from
over the Pacific northeast to lie from St Lawrence Island over
Norton Sound, to Healy and southeast over Yakutat. The wave will
continue to move northeast and dissipate as it moves over the
Arctic Coast and Yukon Territory. Weak ridging will build back
north with 540 heights pushing north over Southcentral Alaska and
the Southeast Interior. A 520 dam low will move over the Western
Aleutians Tonight, then to St Matthew Island by Sunday afternoon
as it absorbs decaying low in the area. The low will continue
northeast into the Chukchi Sea with trough moving over the West
Coast by Monday morning and southwest flow developing over the
interior and Arctic. The trough will move east across the state
Monday. At 850 hpa...A few patches of above 0C temperatures in the
interior, but warmer air is eroding rapidly. Temperatures will be
between 0C and -10C through Monday.

Surface...Strong high pressure remains over the Yukon Territory
but has weakened to 1038 mb center. The strongest high pressure
will be sliding southeast next 24 hours with a 1027 mb high over
Dawson and a 1021 mb high over the Copper River Basin left in its
wake. Troughing remains over the Arctic Coast and Plains and the
pressure gradient across the Brooks Range has tightened up but
will relax tonight. The leeside trough north of the Alaska Range
has weakened today, but will strengthen overnight with the
gradient tightening up over the Eastern Alaska Range. A 985 mb low
near Dutch Harbor this morning will continue north to the
Pribilofs this evening, and to St Matthew Island by Sunday
morning with the weather front moving over Southwest Alaska and
north to Norton Sound by Sunday morning, then northeast as it
decays Sunday afternoon. A 992 mb low will move to 300 nm south of
Dutch Harbor Sunday morning, then rapidly northeast into Bristol
Bay Sunday evening, and to the Lower Yukon Delta by Monday morning
at 997 mb. the low will move to the Upper Yukon Flats by Monday
evening. Snow over the West Coast and southwest mainland will
continue to develop then move northeast as the low moves into
Southwest Alaska. The snow will spread into the Middle Yukon River
Valley early Sunday morning, the Central Interior Sunday morning,
then starts breaking up as it continues northeast with some areas
of light snow reaching into the Middle Tanana Valley.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Winds came in a bit stronger than
expected, but will be diminishing this evening with improving
conditions on the coast. Winds in the Brooks Range will also
diminish this evening. Snow moving over the Northwest Arctic
Coast this evening and spreading east overnight. Snowfall amounts
up to 3 inches. Winds diminishing across the area to 5 to 15 mph
and swinging around from southeast to southwest. Temperatures
cooling slightly next 24 hours.

West Coast and Western Interior...More snow moving into the area,
this time it will push further inland over the Western Interior
tonight with up to 2 inches of snow for most areas, and 5 inches
near the Nulato Hills. Some light freezing rain possible as well
with the warmer air pushing north over Norton Sound. Winds along
the coast east at 10 to 20 mph, with light winds inland.
Temperatures steady or cooling slightly.

Central and Eastern Interior...Increasing clouds over the area
with a chance of snow by afternoon Sunday over most of the area.
Snowfall amounts generally less than 1 inch through Sunday
afternoon. Winds light and variable except for the Alaska Range
Passes where winds will be gusting near 55 mph tonight, then
diminish some Sunday. Temperatures warming as cloud cover limits
radiational cooling.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...Models are just not playing
well. Will need to lean toward the Ensemble approach that WPC is
using. Expect a mostly cloudy week with periods of light snow and
the potential for some significant snow midweek.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

&&

SDB FEB 18