Wind Advisory 69, NWS Fairbanks, AK

476 
WWAK73 PAFG 072235
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
135 PM AKST Fri Dec 7 2018

AKZ223-072345-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0069.000000T0000Z-181208T0200Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
135 PM AKST Fri Dec 7 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

Strong gusty winds are diminishing in the Delta Junction area.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
658 AM AKST Fri Dec 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft....
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over the Bering
Sea with a ridge over Western Canada and Eastern Alaska will
persist through Sat, then progress so that the trough lies over
mainland Alaska by the middle of next week. This south flow aloft,
combined with several strong short waves, will keep conditions
much warmer than normal over the Interior of Alaska through the
weekend, and bring significant snow much of the Interior, we well
as periods of chinook winds to the Alaska Range between short
waves.

A strong vertically stacked low aloft 100 NM southwest of Nome
will move to near Golovin by 3pm Sat and to near Point Hope by
3pm Sun. This will support a surface low underneath this low.

Surface...
An old occluded front stretching from the Bering Strait to Old
Crow will persist today. Light snow is occuring along this
feature. A 996 mb low will develop along this front near
Demarcation Point by 3am Sat, then move to Inuvik as a 989 mb low
by 3pm Sat, then continue east. Light snow is occuring along this
front and will move north over the eastern Arctic tonight with
the low.

A strong ridge of high pressure from NE Russia east over the North
Slope of AK will Weaken tonight over the north slope then rebuild
on Sat north of the Arctic Coast. A low pressure trough near
77N will move to line along the Arctic Coast of Alaska early Sat,
then move east of Demarcation Point Sat night. Clear skies today under
the ridge will cloud up tonight under the trough, then clear
again late Sat and Sun under the ridge.

A 980 mb low 100 NM south of Nome will remain in place today, then
move to Golovin as a 984 mb low by 3pm Sat, to near Kotzebue as a
986 mb low by 3pm Sun, then slowly dissipate. An arctic cold front
stretching from this low to Teller to Bethel will move to Nome to
Buckland to Mcgrath by 3pm Fri, and to Nome to Kotzebue to
Farewell by 3am Sat, then move to the Central Interior by 3am Sun.
There are heavy snow showers and north winds 50g70mph in the NW
quadrant of this low affecting zone 213 and 207 west of Shishmaref
today and tonight, then starting to decrease slowly Sat and Sat
night. There will be another 4-8 inches of snow in this area.
There are snow showers along the cold front that will drop another
several inches.

A warm front that stretches from Cook INlet to Fairbanks to Eagle
will move to Cook INlet to Denali to Circle by 3pm Fri, and to
Denali to Bettles to the 996 mb low near Demarcation Point by 3am
Sat. Snow is developing NW of this warm front and will become
enhanced as soon as this warm moist air interacts with the
previously mentioned cold front over the Central Interior from
McGrath to Atigun Pass, with 6 to 12 inches of snow in this area
from this afternoon through Late Sat. The heaviest snow will be
north of the Yukon River. Also expect a chance of freezing rain
along this warm front in the area from Minchumina to Fairbanks to
Delta Junction south today into Sat.

Strong south winds will blow through the AK range today trailing
this warm front.

A second warm front will move to the Southeast Alaska Range by
early Sat and to Denali to Old Crow by 3pm Sat.
More snow will accompany this feature in the central interior,
with a chance of freezing rain in the SE Interior Sat. Strong
winds will follow the front Sat PM.

A third warm front will move north over the SE Interior Sat night.
The Arctic Cold front will move east Sat night and Sun bringing
2-4 inches of snow to the Eastern INterior Sat night into Sun,.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize 10-20 m too weak on h500 ridge over Eastern
Alaska. Expect this to cause models to move features slightly too
far east over Interior today as a result, and will adjust by keep
features slightly west of models today. Models show similar
solutions h500 through Sat AM. Sat PM the GFS and ECMF lift the
vertically stacked low over Norton Sound north over the Seward
Pen while the NAM keeps in in place. A strong short wave moving
Eastward across the southern Bering on Sat and Sun is shown by the
GFS and ECMF to build a weak short wave ridge ahead of it causing
the Norton Sound low to move north. The makes sense given the
dynamics. Prefer the GFS/ECMF from Sat PM into Sun.

From Mon on models disagree on details but due agree on long wave
trough moving slowly east over Mainland AK next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...High surf 213 til Sat
night,

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 218 PM AKST Thu Dec 6 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A strong winter storm continues to bring snow, blowing snow and
freezing rain through the Seward Peninsula, Bering Strait, Norton
Sound as well as the Lower YK Delta.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a strong shortwave currently over St Lawrence
Island will remain over the northern Bering Sea through Friday as
an upper level ridge with axis from Fairbanks to Juneau will
slowly drift to the east as strong shortwave rotating around the
upper level low over the northern Bering Sea pushes north through
the Western Interior and the West Coast through the weekend. The
longwave trough over the central Bering Sea will begin to push
east moving over the eastern Bering Sea Sunday and Monday and over
the West Coast Monday and Tuesday.

On the surface, a 982 mb low currently over St Lawrence Island
will drift south and east to be located just off shore from
Emmonak Friday morning as a 979 mb low and will remain nearly
stationary Friday night and will then move on shore as a 981 mb
low Saturday morning. Ongoing Winter Storm Warning for St Lawrence
Island and the Bering Strait remains on track with blizzard
conditions and wind gusts over 60 mph. Winter Weather Advisories
over the Seward Peninsula and over the lower YK Delta remain on
track with snow, blowing snow and freezing rain as well as reduced
visibilities as a result of the low over St Lawrence Island.
Winter Weather Advisories for snow, blowing snow and freezing rain
for zones 216, 219 and 218 remain on track for the 996 mb low
currently located near Huslia. This low will rapidly move north
over the Brooks Range tonight and will bring a brief respite for
the snow over the Western Interior.

The occluded front spinning around the low over St Lawrence
Island moves east tonight and friday into the Western Interior ans
will stall as it merges with a stationary front currently located
along a Cold Front to Bettles to Galena to McGrath line. This
merged frontal system will be the focus for additional snow heavy
snowfall as moisture from a moist system in the Gulf of Alaska is
drawn north along the front Friday and Saturday. The Winter Weather
Advisories for these areas have been extended into Saturday for
the additional snowfall expected in these areas.

Southerly winds will again limit precipitation to the east of
Manley Hot Springs and to the south of Fairbanks through Friday
and Saturday morning, however as the Chinook weakens and moisture
returns to the area from the southwest Saturday afternoon and
evening, there is a slight chance for a brief period of light
freezing rain mixing with the light snow. Continue to monitor.

Winds through the Alaska Range Passes and along the northern
foothills will increase dramatically Friday night and Saturday as
the next strong shortwave approaches the Alaska Range from the
south. Winds will likely increase to advisory levels on Friday
and will flirt with warning levels late Friday night and
through the day Saturday.

Models, The models continue to struggle with initialization as
far as the strength of the high pressure system over Siberia with
initialization values at least 4 mb too low. The models have come
in better agreement on the track and strength of the low currently
over St Lawrence Island. Model spread remains reasonable into the
weekend, however large differences emerge across the model
families next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 1 and 2...A High Surf Advisory
remains in effect through Friday night.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ214-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB DEC 18