Wind Advisory 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

992 
WWAK73 PAFG 052200
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
100 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

AKZ223-061400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.180106T0300Z-180106T2100Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
100 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
AKST SATURDAY...

* LOCATION...From Delta Junction south and east.

* WINDS...East and southeast gusting to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Winds increasing this evening with the strongest winds
  overnight.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

659 
WWAK73 PAFG 061302
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
402 AM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

AKZ223-062100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180106T2100Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
402 AM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* LOCATION...From Delta Junction south and east.

* WINDS...East and southeast gusting to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will diminish late this morning, but remain gusty
  into the evening.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

464 
WWAK73 PAFG 061802
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
902 AM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

AKZ223-061915-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180106T2100Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
902 AM AKST Sat Jan 6 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

Winds will continue to decrease this morning.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
321 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Models are in very good agreement on the short term
solutions. Surface solutions from the 05/00Z run initialized well
against the 05/12Z surface analysis. Pretty quiet over the
forecast area, and will models in good agreement, will use a blend
of the solutions for this short term forecast cycle.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging extends north from the northeast
Pacific over Cook Inlet to a 538 dam center over Denali, then
northwest over the Seward and Chukotsk Peninsulas. The high will
cutoff and the closed center will move over the Central Interior
at 536 dam tonight with the ridging extending northwest over the
Chukchi Sea and Siberian Arctic Coast. By Saturday morning the
high will be over the Upper Kobuk Basin with ridging extending
northwest over Wrangel Island, and southeast over Eagle and
British Columbia. And by Sunday morning the high will be over the
Northwest Arctic Coast with ridging extending northwest over the
Arctic, and southwest over the Panhandle. A 490 dam low over the
Dateline in the BEring Sea will be pushing the ridge north as it
moves northwest and a strong shortwave swinging around it moves to
the Western Alaska Peninsula this afternoon, Bristol Bay tonight,
and over the southwest Mainland and northern Gulf of Alaska by
Saturday morning. The shortwave stalls out and weakens there
through Sunday morning. A second shortwave will swing around the
low Sunday as the low is absorbed into a 499 dam low over the Sea
of Ohkotsk. The shortwave will move over Bristol Bay Sunday
morning, and moves to lie from over the Gulf of Anadyr to King
Salmon by Sunday evening, and continues to move north along the
western flank of the Ridge. Troughing associated with a low over
the Canadian Archipelago digs in to the east of the ridge over
Canada pulling cold air south. At 850 hpa...Temperatures generally
below zero to around -15 over the Arctic Coast this morning. Some
patches of above zero temperatures moving over the southwest
mainland as the low pulls some warm air north today. The slightly
warmer temperatures will persist into Sunday morning. Much colder
air is being pulled south over Canada, and into the eastern areas
of the state. Models are significantly divided on how much cold
air will actually move into the state with the GFS keeping the -20
isotherm over the Yukon Territory, and the NAM, ECMWF, and
Canadian models pulling the cold air as far west as Anaktuvuk Pass
to Central to Dot Lake to Beaver Creek YT by Monday afternoon.
Will lean toward the colder temperatures for the end of the short
term forecast.

Surface...Broad area of cyclonic flow around a pair of 960 mb
lows along the Aleutians will spin a weather front north over the
southwest coast, the lower Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, and St
Lawrence Island. High pressure over the Eastern Interior with a
1020 mb center over the Upper Yukon Flats will slide north and
east the next 24 hours to lie from a 1029 mb center near 78N 180
to Demarcation Point, then south over the Yukon Territory with
rigging poking in over the Cooper River Basin. The lows over the
Aleutians will merge over the Western Bering Sea near 57N 175E
into a 948 dam low tonight. The low will move northeast to 60N 180
by Saturday afternoon at 968 mb, and into the Gulf of Anadyr by
Sunday afternoon at 985 mb. The pressure gradient will tighten up
over St lawrence Island, Bering Strait, Chukchi Sea, most of the
Western Interior, and the Western Brooks Range tonight as the low
moves north. The gradient will relax late Saturday morning as the
low weakens. Leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range will
develop tonight as a 998 mb low develops south of Nenana. This
will also enhance the Tanana Valley jet as high pressure
strengthens over the Upper Yukon and Tanana Valleys. A weaker high
will build over the Upper Tanana Flats, but expect the gradient
to tighten up a bit over the Ray Mountains as well. Leeside
troughing north of the Brooks Range will develop Monday as trough
builds east across the area, and high pressure builds west over
the south slopes over the Eastern Brooks Range.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Relatively quiet, though the
stratus is being a pain. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at
05/1015Z indicates a wide swath of MVFR conditions over the area
from Point Lay to Anaktuvuk Pass and east this morning and is
moving very slowly to the northeast. A few flurries are occurring
and will continue through the day with minor accumulations. Winds
generally east at 5 to 15 mph this morning, but they will slowly
increase from west to east as the gradient tightens with the low
in the Bering Sea moving to the Gulf of Anadyr, then over the
Eastern Arctic Coast tonight as the trough builds east over the
Arctic Plains.

West Coast and Western Interior...Pressure gradient continues
tighten across the area today with increasing winds. The strongest
winds will be over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait, but
strong winds will cover most of the area including the Western
Interior. Expect the strongest winds will be gusts to around 50
mph today and tonight before things settle down. Precipitation
will be limited over the area as the front stretches out and
dissipates. Some snow on St Lawrence Island and the Lower Yukon
Delta today and tonight spreading to Norton Sound, the Seward
Peninsula, and Bering Strait Coast Saturday night. The front
continues to stretch out and reorient to north-south with some
spotty precipitation continuing over the Seward Peninsula and
Chukchi Sea Coast through Monday. Slightly warmer temperatures the
next couple days.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some gusting winds to 55 mph
around Delta Junction as the Tanana Valley jet sets up, Gap winds
in the Alaska Range to 45 mph, and gusty winds along the Elliott
and Dalton Highways to 35 mph. Winds will increase this evening
and diminish late Saturday morning. Some spotty stratus around the
interior this morning will continue to hang around with nothing
to push it out of the area. So temperature forecasts will be
difficult as the stratus keeps areas warmer. No precipitation in
the interior through the weekend.

&&

Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models vary on the amount of
cold air that will filter in from Canada so temperatures over the
Eastern Interior will need to be refined as the model solutions
figure it out. A low moving to the Central Aleutians midweek will
send another round of precipitation to the lower Yukon Delta and
St Lawrence Island, but it doesn't look like it will make it much
farther north than that. Expect periods of gusty winds in the
Alaska Range and around Delta Junction when the leeside trough
strengthens.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ223.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ205-AKZ221.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB JAN 18