Storm Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

314 
FZAK52 PAFG 221156
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
356 AM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-230215-
356 AM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A low in the Bering Sea is pushing a weather front into the West 
Coast of Alaska. The low will move north into Eastern Siberia
tonight causing the front to dissipate. Expecting winds to 
decrease Friday after the low moves north and the front weakens.



$$

PKZ200-230215-
Norton Sound-
356 AM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-230215-
Dall Point to Wales-
356 AM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-230215-
Kotzebue Sound-
356 AM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-230215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
356 AM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

Mar 18

898 
FZAK52 PAFG 222231
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
231 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-231545-
231 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A low in the Bering Sea is pushing a weather front into the West 
Coast of Alaska. The low will move north into Eastern Siberia 
tonight causing the front to dissipate. Expecting winds to 
decrease Friday after the low moves north and the front weakens. A
new low will enter the southern Bering Sea on Saturday.

$$

PKZ200-231545-
Norton Sound-
231 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt becoming S 15 kt late tonight. Freezing
fog. Snow.
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-231545-
Dall Point to Wales-
231 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 45 kt decreasing to 25 kt late tonight. 
Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-231545-
Kotzebue Sound-
231 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt late tonight. 
Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-231545-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
231 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt late tonight. 
Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

Mar 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
459 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft...A longwave ridge is currently building over the Western
Interior and will slowly move east to be located over the center
of the state by the weekend before it breaks down early next week.
This will be the main weather influencer for the interior of the
state later in the week. Ahead of the ridge is a weak short wave
trough that is moving quickly southeast across the Eastern
Interior. It is producing some light snow showers as is goes,
some of the first noticeable convective activity we have seen this
year...meaning spring is on the way. This trough will exit to the
east to be in the Yukon Territory by this evening.

The next big weather producer is a long wave trough with an upper
level low that is pushing into the Bering Sea. This low will
progress east and impact the West Coast later today into
Thursday. The high to the east will not allow the low to push
inland, so weather effects from the low will be limited to coastal
areas. Also due to the blocking high to the east, the longwave
trough will remain in place until the weekend, bringing repeated
rounds of inclement weather to the West Coast.

Surface...

Interior...Due to the high pressure ridge building in, the
Interior can expect to see generally quiet weather. Skies are
anticipated to clear and temps drop slightly, with high
temperatures in the upper 20s and lows around 0 for the next
couple nights. Typical March weather is expected.

West Coast...Winter storm watches have been upgraded to winter
storm warnings as the incoming low looks to be panning out as
expected. This low will bring warm air up from the south creating
a scenario for mixed precipitation along the West Coast,
including freezing rain likely for St Lawrence Island. There will
be intermittent blizzard conditions when snow is falling, but due
to the warm temperatures and mix of precipitation types chose to
keep the weather hazards as winter storm warnings as they better
cover conditions that are expected to occur. High winds will also
accompany this system, with the strongest being gusts up to 75 mph
from St. Lawrence Island through the Bering Strait Wednesday into
Thursday.

After this initial storm passes inclement weather will linger due
to the high to the east preventing it from exiting the area. The
West Coast can expect to see a couple more rounds of precipitation
and wind until the weekend, though they will be much weaker than
the storm moving through today and tomorrow.

North Slope...The incoming winter storm to the West Coast will
also impact the eastern north slope, mainly from about Point Lay
south. Have upgraded the winter storm watch for zone 201 to a
warning as a result. It will be windy from Barrow all the way
along the eastern north slope the next few days just along the
coastline, with winds increasing on Thursday. Winds will be strong
enough at Barrow itself that a winter weather advisory was issued
as winds up to 35 mph are expected to produce blowing snow.

Model Discussion...Models show similar solutions to the weather
pattern through about Friday. This means we have high confidence
in the forecast and the weather hazards that have been issued for
the West Coast and North Slope. The NAM continues to be overly
bullish in bringing in precipitation amounts to the West Coast and
is the outlier of the models. So will continue to go with a
GFS/ECMWF solution.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Southerly gales over the
Eastern Bering Sea this afternoon increasing to near storm force
Thursday. Ice edge far enough south that do not expect issues at
this time, but there is a slight chance for ice push onshore south
facing shores of St Lawrence Island and Little Diomede Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215.
&&

BJB MAR 18