Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

019 
WWAK63 PAFG 200446
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
846 PM AKDT Sat May 19 2018


AKZ223-226-200600-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180520T0500Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-Eastern Alaska Range-
846 PM AKDT Sat May 19 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.



$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 PM AKDT Sat May 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A long wave trough over the Bering Sea and Western Alaska will
move over the Gulf of AK and mainland AK Mon as a series of short
waves move from the Gulf of AK north over the Interior. The long
wave trough will weaken slowly through middle of next week, then
deepen slowly through the second half of next week. Each of the
short waves will bring a band of showers and isolated
Thunderstorms to the Interior with it through Mon or Tue.
Temperatures will remain near normal for much of AK into next
week.

A short wave trough in the Gulf of AK will move to the southern
Yukon of Canada Sun PM, to McGrath to Eagle by 4am Mon, to McGrath
to Arctic Village by 4pm Mon, to Mcgrath to Barter Island by 4am
Tue, and then weakening in place. Expect a band of showers and to
move NW over the Interior and North Slope with the short wave with
isolated thunderstorms just ahead of the short wave and trailing
the short wave outside of the area of heavy showers. Expect
0.10-0.25 inch of rain with the showers.

A second short wave will move north over the Southeast Interior
Mon, to Northway to Old Crow by 4am Tue, and then persisting into
Tue. Expect another band of showers with this feature and another
0.25 inch of rain. Also expect isolated thunderstorms just ahead
of the short wave and trailing the short wave outside of the area
of heavy showers.

Freezing levels over the Interior should remain above 5000 ft so
precip should be all snow through Tue. This combined with rain
over the Eastern Interior will cause snow melt at elevation to
pick up over the next several days.

Surface...
A 1030 mb high north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will persist
through Mon then weaken Tue. This will cause east winds 20-30 kt
along the Arctic Coast to persist through Tue. This will also
cause areas of fog from Barrow east through Tue.

An arctic front long the Brooks Range to Kivalina then south to St
Matthew Island will persist through Sun, then move along the West
Coast Mon. Expect any precip north and west of this front over the
North Slope to be snow, and mainly snow west of the front along
the West Coast.

A 1001 mb low over Bristol Bay will move to near Bethel as a 1001
mb low by 4am Sun, to near St Marys as a 998 mb low by 4pm Sun, to
Scammon Bay as a 999 mb low by 4am Mon, then dissipating. A warm
front stretching from the low to Bethel to Tanana to Old Crow
will move to Bethel to Anaktuvuk Pass to Arctic Village by 4am
Sun, to St Mary's to Kivalina to Barter Island by 4pm Sun, then
dissipating. There is a broad band of rain along the warm front
over the Western and Central Interior that will move northwest
with the front tonight then taper off to showers Sun. Expect
.10-.25 inch of rain with this. There are Isolated thunderstorms
over the southern and eastern Interior southeast of the front now
through this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well at 500 mb at 12Z and show similar
solutions through 4pm Sun. Sun night and Mon the GFS and NAM are
faster than the ECMF bringing a short wave NW over the Eastern
Interior. At the surface all models initialize 3 mb too high on
low near Minchumina at 15z. Expect this to result in lee side
trough over Tanana Valley to remain several mb deeper than models
indicate through this evening, and thus gap winds will remain a
bit stronger into the early evening. Precipitation fields show
similar solutions through tonight, then start to see differences
Sun as the GFS brings convective precipitation into the central
Interior more quickly than the NAM. Given the advancing short wave
on Sun the GFS precip appear best. Overall, prefer the GFS
solution through Tue.

In the second half of next week the ECMF expands the long wave
trough over all of mainland AK while the GFS builds a ridge over
NW Canada and SE AK. Prefer the ECMF solution in the second half
of next week as the series of short wave troughs rotating NW of
Interior AK cause the ridge to weaken and the trough to expand
east.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions in zone 223 and 226 now through 9pm this
evening, with winds decreasing after that and RH recovering.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Break up proceeding well, and no issues at this time. Expect
rises on Eastern Interior near Fairbanks next several days but
flooding not expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Red Flag Warning for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB MAY 18