Alert archive / Alaska / Brisk Wind Advisories in 2018
Brisk Wind Advisory 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK
NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this brisk wind advisory at Jan 16, 2018, 2:15 PM AKST. It was in force for 3 days.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 16, 2018, 2:15 PM AKST (23:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 19, 2018, 2:39 PM AKST
- In force
- 3 days
- Issued by
- NWS Fairbanks, AK
The text
As transmitted.
728 FZAK52 PAFG 162315 CWFWCZ Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 215 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018 Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one- third of the combined wind-wave and swell height. PKZ299-171500- 215 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST... Low pressure will persist over mainland Alaska as a 994 mb Low develops S of Point Lay Wed morning and moves NW into the Chukchi Sea Thu morning. A ridge of high pressure will move over the Eastern Bering Sea and merge with ridging over Chukotka with a 1032 mb high moving over the Chukotsk Peninsula Fri morning. $$ PKZ200-171500- Norton Sound- 215 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018 ...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .WED...NW winds 25 kt. .WED NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .THU...N winds 20 kt. .THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. .FRI...N winds 20 kt. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. $$ PKZ210-171500- Dall Point to Wales- 215 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. .WED...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. .WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ215-171500- Kotzebue Sound- 215 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018 ...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt becoming W 20 kt. .WED...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow. .WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. .THU...W winds 20 kt. .THU NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .FRI...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .FRI NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 15 kt. $$ PKZ220-171500- Wales to Cape Thompson- 215 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018 ...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. .WED...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. .WED NIGHT...NW winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. .THU...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .THU NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .FRI...NW winds 20 kt. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. .SAT...N winds 20 kt. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. $$ SDB Jan 18
6 follow-up statements
638 FZAK52 PAFG 171317 CWFWCZ Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 417 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018 Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one- third of the combined wind-wave and swell height. PKZ299-180330- 417 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST... Strong Siberian high pressure ridge will span the central Bering Sea between a 981 mb low over the far western Bering and broad low pressure over mainland AK. The ridge will remain in place and continue to build through the weekend. $$ PKZ200-180330- Norton Sound- 417 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018 .TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. .TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .THU...N winds 20 kt. .THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .FRI...N winds 20 kt. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 15 kt. $$ PKZ210-180330- Dall Point to Wales- 417 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... .TODAY...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ215-180330- Kotzebue Sound- 417 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018 ...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... .TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. .TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .THU...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. .THU NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .FRI...NW winds 25 kt. .FRI NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. .SAT...NW winds 20 kt. .SUN...N winds 15 kt. $$ PKZ220-180330- Wales to Cape Thompson- 417 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018 ...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... .TODAY...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. .TONIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. .THU...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .THU NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .FRI...N winds 20 kt. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. $$ Jan 18
773 FZAK52 PAFG 172300 CWFWCZ Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 200 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018 Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one- third of the combined wind-wave and swell height. PKZ299-181500- 200 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST... High pressure over Siberia will build over the Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, and Eastern Bering Sea with a 1031 mb high moving to the Bering Strait Fri afternoon and persisting through Sat. As the high pressure pushes E a strong pressure gradient will develop over the Chukchi Sea tonight and move NE into the Arctic Fri morning. $$ PKZ200-181500- Norton Sound- 200 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018 .TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .THU...N winds 20 kt. .THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. .FRI...N winds 15 kt. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 15 kt. .MON...N winds 15 kt. $$ PKZ210-181500- Dall Point to Wales- 200 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. .THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. .THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ215-181500- Kotzebue Sound- 200 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018 ...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. .THU...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. .THU NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .FRI...NW winds 20 kt. .FRI NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .SAT...NW winds 15 kt. .SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 15 kt. .MON...N winds 15 kt. $$ PKZ220-181500- Wales to Cape Thompson- 200 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018 ...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. .THU...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. .THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .FRI...NW winds 20 kt. .FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. .MON...N winds 20 kt. $$ SDB Jan 18
850 FZAK52 PAFG 181300 CWFWCZ Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 400 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018 Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one- third of the combined wind-wave and swell height. PKZ299-190330- 400 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST... Siberian high pressure will continue to build across the eastern Bering and Chukchi Seas through the weekend, reaching 1035 mb over St. Matthew Island Saturday. A strong pressure gradient over the Chukchi Sea between the high and a 994 mb low near the coast of Wainwright will move northeast into the Arctic Sea over the next few days. $$ PKZ200-190330- Norton Sound- 400 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018 .TODAY...N winds 20 kt. .TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. .FRI...N winds 15 kt. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .SAT...N winds 10 kt. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. .MON...N winds 15 kt. $$ PKZ210-190330- Dall Point to Wales- 400 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... .TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. .TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ215-190330- Kotzebue Sound- 400 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018 ...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... .TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. .TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .FRI...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .FRI NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .SAT...NW winds 15 kt. .SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. .MON...N winds 15 kt. $$ PKZ220-190330- Wales to Cape Thompson- 400 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018 ...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON... .TODAY...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. .TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. .FRI...NW winds 20 kt. .FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. .SAT...N winds 10 kt. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. .MON...NW winds 20 kt. $$ Jan 18
914 FZAK52 PAFG 182338 CWFWCZ Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 238 PM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018 Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one- third of the combined wind-wave and swell height. PKZ299-191515- 238 PM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST... Siberian high pressure will continue to build across the eastern Bering and Chukchi Seas through the weekend, reaching 1035 mb over St. Matthew Island Saturday. A strong pressure gradient over the Chukchi Sea between the high and a 994 mb low near the coast of Wainwright will move northeast into the Arctic Sea over the next few days. $$ PKZ200-191515- Norton Sound- 238 PM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018 ...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... .TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .FRI...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. .SAT...N winds 10 kt. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. .SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. .MON...N winds 15 kt. .TUE...N winds 10 kt. $$ PKZ210-191515- Dall Point to Wales- 238 PM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... .TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ215-191515- Kotzebue Sound- 238 PM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018 ...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. .FRI...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .FRI NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. .SAT...NW winds 15 kt. .SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. .SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. .MON...N winds 15 kt. .TUE...N winds 10 kt. $$ PKZ220-191515- Wales to Cape Thompson- 238 PM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018 ...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... .TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. .FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. .FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. .SAT...N winds 10 kt. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. .SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. .MON...NW winds 20 kt. .TUE...N winds 15 kt. $$ Jan 18
017 FZAK52 PAFG 191321 CWFWCZ Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 421 AM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018 Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one- third of the combined wind-wave and swell height. PKZ299-200330- 421 AM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST... High pressure continues to build across the eastern Bering and Chukchi Seas. A 1031 mb high pressure center will emerge off the Siberian coast Friday, reaching St. Matthew Island as a 1035 mb high Saturday. $$ PKZ200-200330- Norton Sound- 421 AM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018 .TODAY...N winds 20 kt. .TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. .SAT...NW winds 10 kt. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 15 kt. .SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. .MON...N winds 15 kt. .TUE...N winds 10 kt. $$ PKZ210-200330- Dall Point to Wales- 421 AM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON... .TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ215-200330- Kotzebue Sound- 421 AM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018 ...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON... .TODAY...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. .TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. .SAT...NW winds 15 kt. .SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .SUN...NW winds 20 kt. .SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. .MON...NW winds 15 kt. .TUE...N winds 10 kt. $$ PKZ220-200330- Wales to Cape Thompson- 421 AM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018 .TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. .TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. .SAT...N winds 10 kt. .SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. .SUN...NW winds 20 kt. .SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .MON...NW winds 15 kt. .TUE...N winds 15 kt. $$ Jan 18
495 FZAK52 PAFG 192339 CWFWCZ Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 239 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018 Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one- third of the combined wind-wave and swell height. PKZ299-201515- 239 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST... High pressure continues to build across the eastern Bering and Chukchi Seas. A 1032 mb high will move southeast from the Gulf of Anadyr reaching and persist near St. Matthew Island through Sun. $$ PKZ200-201515- Norton Sound- 239 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018 .TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. .SAT...W winds 10 kt. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .SUN...N winds 15 kt. .SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .MON...N winds 15 kt. .MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. .TUE...N winds 10 kt. .WED...N winds 15 kt. $$ PKZ210-201515- Dall Point to Wales- 239 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ215-201515- Kotzebue Sound- 239 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018 .TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .SAT...N winds 10 kt. .SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .SUN...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. .SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .MON...NW winds 15 kt. .MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. .TUE...N winds 10 kt. .WED...N winds 10 kt. $$ PKZ220-201515- Wales to Cape Thompson- 239 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018 .TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt becoming S. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. .SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. .SUN...NW winds 20 kt. .SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. .MON...NW winds 15 kt. .MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. .TUE...N winds 15 kt. .WED...N winds 20 kt. $$ Jan 18
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this brisk wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this brisk wind advisory went out at Jan 16, 12:51 PM AKST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 16, 12:51 PM AKST, 1 hour 24 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1251 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Big picture short term solution continue to be in good agreement. The details of course are lacking as you dig down in scale. Temperature resolution is very important in this type of situation and current models struggle with that. There is a warm air intrusion in the low levels, but how far north that pushes will control how far north the freezing rain extends. Surface solutions matched up well against the 16/18Z analysis. Overall the run to run has been good through the weekend, so will use an almost equal blend for the short term with a lean toward the SREF solution for precipitation probability. Extended solutions are in much better agreement today than the last few days, so expect that a blend of the current solutions and the ensembles will provide a good solution for the extended periods. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Flow aloft remains from the south, but much lighter than the last few days. Ridge is over the Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range and will move offshore over the Arctic to lie from south of Banks Island northwest across the Arctic over 76N 170W by Wednesday afternoon, then continues to by Thursday morning with a 535 dam center over the Beaufort Sea. A 513 dam low is moving over Kodiak Island this afternoon and will move over the southwest mainland tonight as it weakens to 520 dam and dissipates. A 522 dam low will develop over Fairbanks this evening and move northwest over Ambler by Wednesday morning, then over Point Lay Wednesday evening at 515 dam before moving over the Chukchi Sea and dissipating. A 519 dam low will develop southwest of Nunivak Island Wednesday evening and slowly drift south over Bristol Bay by Friday morning. A weak ridge will build over the Central and Eastern Interior Wednesday and dissipates Thursday. A broad weak longwave trough will move over the state Friday. At 850 hpa...Zero isotherm is pushing west a bit today and tonight and will lie from Old Crow YT to Livengood to McGrath with the warmer air to the southeast. The warm air starts breaking up tonight, and the airmass will start cooling. Patches of above zero temperatures will linger over the interior and slowly cool through Thursday morning. On the West coast the -10 isotherm is just offshore and will move over the West Coast Wednesday night and pushes into the Western Interior Friday as the cooling trend over the state continues. Surface...Stacked low moving over Kodiak Island with a 982 mb center near Kodiak City by Wednesday morning. Weather front associated with the low will be swinging north into the Eastern and Central Interior this evening, and the Western Interior by Wednesday morning. Elongated trough remains over the Western Interior this evening with a 994 mb low near Noatak that will slowly move north into the Chukchi Sea by Thursday morning and low pressure extending south to the low over Kodiak. Weak trough persists over the Arctic Plains and Coast and will be pushed offshore and merge with the low as it moves into the Arctic, and ridging from Siberia pushes east over the Plains and Brooks Range. Ridging builds over the Yukon Territory behind the front, and a 1001 mb high will be over the Yukon Territory by Thursday morning with ridge of high pressure extending west to the Siberia. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Very quiet. Some clouds over the Northwest Coast associated with the low in the Chukchi Sea, bt otherwise not much going on. Winds southeast becoming northeast and increasing a bit to 10 to 20 mph for most areas. Increasing clouds tonight over the Eastern Brooks Range will spread north and west tomorrow with some light snow in most areas with up to 4 inches of accumulation locally. Blowing snow is expected to reduce visibility in a few locations, but primarily along the Dalton Highway. Temperatures steady today, but cooling as the week goes on. West Coast and Western Interior...Still some lingering flurries over the area with mostly cloudy conditions. With the trough remaining in the area, cloudy conditions will prevail and expect some light snow at times tonight and tomorrow as the decaying weather front moves into the area and eventually dissipates over the coast. Snowfall amounts will generally be less than 2 inches. There is a slight chance of freezing rain, mainly south of Kaltag and east of Marshall tonight as some warm air gets pushed that way. Winds generally less than 15 mph. Temperatures may warm a bit south of Galena tonight, but most areas will be starting to cool. Central and Eastern Interior...Precipitation already occuring in the upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country with spits of freezing rain. Heavier precipitation this afternoon, so Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect, and expect accumulating freezing rain this afternoon into early evening for areas south of Livengood. Precipitation changing over to snow later this evening with up to 2 inches of snow possible overnight. Winds will remain light and variable in the interior, but expect gap winds to develop in the Alaska Range as the surface low moves to the west a bit and flow across the Alaska Range turns more from the south. Gap winds gusting to 45 to 55 mph tonight will diminish tomorrow. Behind the front also expect the Tanana Valley jet to set up as the leeside trough develops so expect gusty winds to 45 mph around Delta Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Temperatures slightly warmer tonight, then cooling the remainder of the week. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Much better agreement in the solutions with the latest runs. Strong cooling trend for the extended periods, with some patchy clouds. Coldest air is expected to remain over the West Coast and Western Interior, but much colder temperatures are expected with some patchy flurries. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222- AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230- PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && SDB JAN 18
The office that day
Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 8:02 AM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AFG | 43 hr | |
| Jan 16, 1:58 PM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AFG | 37 hr | |
| Jan 16, 2:08 PM AKST | Brisk Wind Advisory | AFG | 4 days |
Nearby
Brisk Wind Advisories in Alaska, 2018Every brisk wind advisory in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.