Storm Warning 98, NWS Anchorage, AK

902 
FZAK61 PAFC 242331
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
331 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-251345-
331 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 967 mb low will move to 56N 143W Wed night then it will move to
58N 148W at 969 mb Thu afternoon. The low will then move to 58N
151W at 984 mb Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-251345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
331 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft building to 19 to
27 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 17 to 29 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Widespread
rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-251345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
331 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NW 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

484 
FZAK61 PAFC 251151
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-260115-
351 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 964 mb low at 57N 144W moves to 58N 148W at 975 mb Thu night and 
then moves to 56N 152W at 991 mb Fri night.

$$

PKZ351-260115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
351 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 17 to 29 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ352-260115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
351 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

895 
FZAK61 PAFC 252345
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-261345-
345 PM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 969 mb low at 58N 147W will move to 59N 152W at 984 mb Fri afternoon.
The low will then dissipate Fri night. A series of complex lows will
move into the southern Gulf through Sat afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-261345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 PM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. W of 147W...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ352-261345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 PM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. W of 147W...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

892 
FZAK61 PAFC 261146
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 AM AKDT Fri Oct 26 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-270130-
346 AM AKDT Fri Oct 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 978 mb low at 59N 151W moves to 56N 154W at 995 mb Fri night and
then dissipates. A complex 985 mb North Pacific low moves to 50N 
147W Fri night and then moves to 56N 148W at 986 mb Sat night.

$$

PKZ351-270130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
346 AM AKDT Fri Oct 26 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-270130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
346 AM AKDT Fri Oct 26 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 PM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A vertically stacked, fast moving and maturing low in the
northern Gulf of Alaska is pushing inland this afternoon. Colder
air is wrapping around this low, similar to the last several
storms. The jet stream still sits on the southern edge of the Gulf
with an arm running up along the panhandle which is migrating
northeastward. Embedded in the flow of the low are several
shortwaves which are moving along the North Gulf Coast. Increased
vorticity is present around the closed low center and in the
periphery of the system. The northwesterly movement of a front
ahead of the low is increasing instability and creating heaving
banded precipitation throughout the area. While most of
Southcentral is experiencing widespread rainfall, the Copper River
Basin saw snow this morning. Southerly flow continues to dominate
which is increasing winds through the typical gaps throughout
Southcentral.

Meanwhile, low pressure persists in the eastern Gulf as a
secondary low, embedded in the flow around the Gulf low shifts
southeastward toward the central and eastern Aleutians. The
associated front is bringing rain and higher gusts to the central
Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models still struggle some with the next low to enter the
northern Gulf on Thursday. They all place the low center generally
in the northern Gulf by Thursday afternoon, but differences in
position have a significant impact on the precipitation pattern
and wind fields. The good news is that the central pressures are
about the same. For now increasing winds in general over the Gulf
marines from what was previously in the grids.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Could see some occasional MVFR conditions this evening with
rain and showers. Winds should shift from gusty northerly to
Southerly early this evening and remain relatively strong and
gusty into the early morning Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Portions of Southcentral will continue to see strong winds this
evening and tonight. The surface low is currently over the Kenai
Peninsula with an approximate pressure of 963mb. There is a tight
pressure gradient from Cordova to Whittier to Anchorage. This low
will head north and jump over the Cook Inlet tonight and the
gradient will slacken a bit but remain enhanced for tomorrow too.
The radars at Kenai and Middleton Island remain active. Still
expecting rain in the low elevations this evening and
tomorrow...with the snow level as low at 3,000 feet. Thursday will
be drier for Anchorage but showers will linger over Prince William
Sound and the Kenai Peninsula.

&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Showery activity and mostly cloudy skies continue to be the
pattern for southwest Alaska, due to a broad upper level trough
over southwest Alaska that is allowing surface low pressure
systems to rotate into the region. Temperatures in the lower
Kuskokwim Valley have stayed cold today, so cooled off forecasted
temperatures in that area. A rain/snow mix was also added in
valley areas for this evening and tomorrow morning, with snow
overnight, to reflect these cooler temperatures. Some clearing
will again occur in the lower Kuskokwim Valley as winds shift to
north the next couple of days, which will keep minimum temperatures
just below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The low pressure system moving south through the eastern Bering
Sea is progressing as expected and continuing to produce rain
showers as it goes. The low will push south of the Aleutian
Islands tonight, with strong northerly flow behind it. This
northerly flow will bring a colder airmass over the central and
western Bering. However, due to warm sea surface temperatures, a
warm marine layer will keep temperatures up and mitigate the
intrusion of cold air. Winds are still expected to elevate, with
gale force winds in the central and western Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...(Friday through Tuesday)
The forecast remains complicated as model continuity continues to
be in poor agreement starting this weekend. The main issues are
related to how quickly the models break down the persistent Bering
trough, as a series of compact and strong Arctic vort maxes tries
to make inroads further south. Yesterday, the general consensus
was that this would occur towards the end of the forecast period
as they were essentially trekking from the North Slope towards the
Yukon border, allowing the trough to deamplify some as it
repositions eastward.

However, today's runs show these disturbances taking a more
meridional approach as they dive south, basically emerging from
eastern Siberia and diving straight into the Bering trough. These
disturbances will allow the trough to persist longer by re-
energize it, but also add uncertainty the resulting 500mb height
fields. The same is true (albeit with slightly less uncertainty
than aloft) with the low-level pressure fields in relation to
surface low placement and timing (as one would expect). Finally,
with the majority of these systems remaining over water where the
can't be sampled by our land-based radiosonde network, which is a
large part of the model initializations, it's no surprise their
forecasts continue to go awry.

One should also keep in mind that typically the models have a
fast bias in pattern change events, so it wouldn't be surprising
if this wet pattern of multiple systems lifting north into the
Gulf continued into at least the middle of next week. Stay tuned!

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 119 120 125 131 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC/RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
LONG TERM...PD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1221 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 MILES SSW MEADOW LAKE 61.59N 149.66W
10/23/2018  M30 MPH          MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

0720 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST SEWARD HWY AT MCHUGH CR 61.02N 149.74W
10/23/2018  M79 MPH          ANCHORAGE          AK   MESONET

            ESE DIRECTION.

0103 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CORDOVA                 60.55N 145.75W
10/23/2018  M65 MPH          VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   PUBLIC

            ONE MATURE TREE WAS UPROOTED AND LOTS OF
            BRANCHES AND DEBRIS THROWN ABOUT.

1225 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W WHITTIER            60.78N 148.83W
10/23/2018  M86 MPH          ANCHORAGE          AK   MESONET

            ENE DIRECTION.

1220 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WHITTIER                60.78N 148.73W
10/23/2018  M60 MPH          VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   MESONET

            NE DIRECTION.

1118 AM     SNOW             1 NW KENNY LAKE         61.73N 144.98W
10/23/2018  E2.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   PUBLIC

            ABOUT 2 IN REPORTED AND STARTED AROUND
            4:15AM.

1115 AM     SNOW             WILLOW LAKE             61.79N 145.19W
10/23/2018  E1.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   PUBLIC

            LESS THAN 1 IN REPORTED.

1000 AM     SNOW             1 ENE KENNY LAKE        61.73N 144.92W
10/23/2018  E1.5 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   PUBLIC

            STILL SNOWING AT THE TIME OF OBSERVATION.

1000 AM     SNOW             OPERATE FROM MILE 42 TO 61.45N 145.11W
10/23/2018  E3.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            REPORTED 3 IN OF SNOW AT THE OFFICE AS WELL
            AS AT THE INTERSECTION OF RICHARDSON HWY AND
            EDGERTON HWY. 0.3 IN SWE WITH THE MORNING
            SNOWFALL.

&&