Storm Warning 88, NWS Anchorage, AK

857 
FZAK52 PAFC 191145
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-200045-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A strong front over the central and eastern Aleutians associated 
with a 989 mb low 317 nm southeast of Dutch Harbor will begin to 
weaken this afternoon. A second front over the western Aleutians 
is slowly moving eastward through Mon morning.

$$

PKZ150-200045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-200045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-200045-
Bristol Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing to SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-200045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-200045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-200045-
Unalaska Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-200045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-200045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-200045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 
ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 8 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-200045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoiming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-200045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-200045-
Adak to Kiska-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt except variable 10 kt E of Amchitka Pass in the
morning. Seas building to 8 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-200045-
Kiska to Attu-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-200045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-200045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-200045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-200045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 15 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SE 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
406 PM AKDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main feature remains to be the front associated with the North
Pacific low wrapping over the AKPen and Southwest, which can
easily be seen on IR satellite imagery. Strong winds are
occurring on the backside and in advance of this occluding front
as it moves north and east. These winds and rain are extending
from the AKPen and Bristol Bay to the western Gulf, with over an
inch of rain already recorded at Kodiak City. A 110kt jet
continues to be situated at the base of the trough. A ridge sits
over Southcentral with precipitation drifting northward from the
warm front associated with the low. Ridging sits over the western
Aleutians bringing cirrus to the area as a surface front
approaches from the west.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the placement of the front
associated with the North Pacific low as it moves into the Gulf.
The main difference between the models is the QPF totals over the
southern and eastern Kenai Peninsula. The GFS has lower values
through Monday, but then seems to be in better agreement after
that. For this reason, the EC and NAM are the favored models for
QPF totals, particularly over the Seward area.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally VFR conditions with some light rain or showers.
Winds will be fairly light at the surface. However, a strong SE
wind aloft will develop overnight and bring LLWS to the airport
complex.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The weak warm front draped over the Southcentral mainland will
continue to move north tonight and dissipate by morning. The next
(and much stronger) front will push across Kodiak tonight, and
reach the Kenai Peninsula in the morning. The front will then
progress northward through the day Sunday. This front will bring
gale-force winds to some of the marine areas, mainly from the
Barren Islands southward, including through Shelikof Strait. Some
gusty winds are also expected along Turnagain Arm.

By Monday the flow aloft will be almost directly from the south.
This will bring a considerable amount of precipitation to coastal
areas and surrounding mountains, with less rainfall inland. There
will be enough rain along the Gulf Coast to raise river and
stream levels late Sunday into early Tuesday. The main concern is
the rivers and streams near Seward, where rainfall is expected to
be in the range of about two and a half to four inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A warm front will continue to push through the southwest Mainland
tonight, originating from a north Pacific low tracking eastward
just south of the AKPEN. The Greater Bristol Bay area and some
areas along the Kuskokwim Delta coast will receive the bulk of the
precipitation tonight, then transitioning to the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley through Sunday night. Generally, light rain will spread
over most areas through Monday morning, except for downslope
areas of the Alaska Peninsula/Aleutians.

Along with the spreading precipitation, gusty southeasterly winds
continue to increase tonight and peak during the morning hours
Sunday, especially through gaps along the Alaska and Aleutian
Ranges and along the western capes. The front will stall out
overhead late tonight into Sunday, getting reinforced by a
disturbance aloft and moving it northward during the day. Winds
will drop off pretty quickly Sunday morning behind the front.
Late Sunday into Monday, the area will be left under weaker but
moist cyclonic flow, keeping at least a chance of showers in the
forecast. A stronger disturbance will bring more steady rain
Monday evening into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain right around
climatological normals for this time of year with mostly cloudy
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Widespread rain and gusty winds will continue over much of the
eastern half of the Bering Sea and Aleutians through Sunday
morning. Wet and windy conditions will briefly diminish Sunday
evening. However, these conditions will quickly be replaced by
showery and much less windier conditions as the next front tracks
in from the west by Monday morning. These conditions will persist
through Tuesday morning under some fairly moist south to
southwesterly flow.

Further west, high pressure over the area will continue to erode
away to the south as the next low pressure system and associated
front track into the area tonight through Tuesday morning. This
secondary warm front will bring another batch of slightly warmer
temperatures, rain, and some gusty winds to the western half of
the Bering and Aleutians through monday morning. The front will
track eastward by monday morning as mentioned above, with the
parent low tracking in behind it over the western/central
Aleutians and Bering through Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Wednesday through Saturday)...

The long term forecast begins Wednesday morning with a rapidly
weakening surface low over Eastern Alaska and the Copper River
Basin exiting the state to the east. Showers will taper off
through the morning from west to east as a transitory ridge builds
in behind the low over Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. This
should lead to a brief period of decent weather over the southern
mainland before the next system rolls into the area from the
Bering by Thursday.

A broad low pressure system over the Bering will bring increased
winds and waves with rain showers to most of the Bering/Aleutians
through the later half of next week. A front from this system will
push east across the southern mainland over the Thursday/Friday
timeframe, though details are murky at this time. Model
disagreement and uncertainty begins to creep in by the weekend
with the GFS showing a high amplitude ridge building in over the
mainland from the Bering while the EC keeps the ridge flatter
with a bit more unsettled weather over the area. Ensembles do show
high pressure trying to build in from the North Pacific though
the flow becomes more zonal in nature as an upper level low tries
to push down from the Arctic. For now, trended towards the more
unsettled solution until models show better agreement on the
building ridge next weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Watch...125.
MARINE...Gales...130 131 132 137 138 139 150 160 165 173 176
				 180 352 414.
		 Storms...170 172 174.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AH/RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...KVP