Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2018
Storm Warning 31, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this storm warning at Feb 24, 2018, 3:36 PM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 24, 2018, 3:36 PM AKST (00:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 26, 2018, 3:23 PM AKST
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
744 FZAK62 PAFC 250036 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 336 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-251415- 336 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 988 mb low at 50N 170E will move to 57N 178W at 983 mb Sun afternoon. It will then move inland near Bethel early Mon morning at 980 mb. $$ PKZ411-251415- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 336 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow. .SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 27 ft. Rain and snow. .SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming W up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Patchy fog. .MON...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .WED...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 35 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. $$ PKZ412-251415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 336 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain and snow. .SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow. .SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain. .MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. .WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. .THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. $$ PKZ413-251415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 336 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Rain and snow. .SUN...SW wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt with gusts to 70 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 18 to 33 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow showers. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 27 to 37 ft subsiding to 19 to 34 ft after midnight. Patchy fog developing after midnight. .MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .WED...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. .THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. $$ PKZ414-251415- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 336 PM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow and rain. .SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 30 to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 12 ft building to 11 to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft building to 22 to 37 ft after midnight. Rain. .MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$
4 follow-up statements
760 FZAK62 PAFC 251238 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 338 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-260200- 338 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 983 mb low near 55N 175E will move inland over the Y-K Delta at 981 mb late Sun night. An associated front over the eastern Bering will move inland over southwest AK by Sun evening. A weak trough of low pressure will move over the western Aleutians Mon morning and move east across the Bering through Tue morning. $$ PKZ411-260200- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 338 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...N of 56N... NE wind 25 to 40 kt. S of 56N... NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain and snow. .TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft. .MON...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. .WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. $$ PKZ412-260200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 338 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 14 to 22 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow. .TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain. .MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. .WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .THU...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. $$ PKZ413-260200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 338 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft building to 20 to 35 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow showers. .TONIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft. .MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .THU...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ414-260200- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 338 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 30 to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 12 ft building to 11 to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow. .TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft building to 23 to 38 ft after midnight. Rain. .MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 to 34 ft subsiding to 15 to 23 ft in the afternoon. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$
431 FZAK62 PAFC 260017 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 317 PM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-261400- 317 PM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 980 mb low at 58N 178W moves inland near 61N 165W at 981 mb Mon morning with its front into Western Alaska by Midday Monday. A 1004 mb low and front near 49N 166E moves across Bristol Bay into the Gulf of Alaska for Tue Afternoon. A 963 mb North Pacific low moves to 50N 168E at 949 mb Tue afternoon. $$ PKZ411-261400- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 317 PM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft. .MON...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft. .WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. $$ PKZ412-261400- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 317 PM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Widespread rain showers. .MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. $$ PKZ413-261400- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 317 PM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 28 to 38 ft subsiding to 19 to 34 ft after midnight. .MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow and rain. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Snow. .TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. .WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ414-261400- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 317 PM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY... .TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft building to 23 to 38 ft after midnight. .MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 to 34 ft subsiding to 16 to 24 ft in the afternoon. Snow. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. .TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .FRI...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. $$
697 FZAK62 PAFC 261250 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 350 AM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-270245- 350 AM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 1004 mb low at 51N 171E moves inland near 58N 158W at 999 mb by Tue morning. A 954 mb low at 47N 169E Tue morning moves to 54N 168E at 950 mb by Wed morning. $$ PKZ411-270245- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 350 AM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY... .TODAY...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 32 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. .FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ412-270245- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 350 AM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018 .TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray N of 58N in the morning. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. $$ PKZ413-270245- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 350 AM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018 .TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow and rain. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .TUE...NE wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. $$ PKZ414-270245- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 350 AM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 to 33 ft subsiding to 14 to 22 ft in the afternoon. Snow. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. .TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .FRI...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. $$
947 FZAK62 PAFC 270023 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 323 PM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-271415- 323 PM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A North Pacific low moves to 52N 168E at 949 mb Tue night and continues to 57N 169E at 954 mb Wed afternoon. Its front pushes across the Western Aleutians by Wed afternoon. High pressure moves into Western Alaska through Wed afternoon. $$ PKZ411-271415- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 323 PM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft building to 16 to 24 ft after midnight. Rain and snow. .WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 32 ft. .WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. .FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft. $$ PKZ412-271415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 323 PM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming variable up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow and rain. .WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .WED NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. .THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ413-271415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 323 PM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Snow. .TUE...SE wind up to 15 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain. .WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. .WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ414-271415- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 323 PM AKST Mon Feb 26 2018 .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Snow. .TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .FRI...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. .SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Feb 24, 6:05 AM AKST, 9 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 24, 6:05 AM AKST, 9 hours 31 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 605 AM AKST Sat Feb 24 2018 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... The active weather pattern continues as the next snow event has blasted through Southwest AK and is now moving into Southcentral. This is all being supported by a semi-meridional upper level (30,000') jet at a 130 kt. This strong jet is helping to mix down some gusty westerly winds behind the snow over SW AK. It is also ushering in some cold air and heavier showers across the Bering, especially near the Pribilofs. Over Southcentral, snow has been falling for a good part of the night from Talkeetna over to Cordova. However, a moderately strong triple-point low is now taking shape over the Northern Gulf of Alaska. The net effect of this is pulling down some northerly flow from the interior portion of the state at the surface. This is allowing some drier air to slide underneath the snow and slow accumulation rates thus far. Radar was more impressive earlier in the night, but light snow will still continue to fall through the morning. Over the Western Aleutians and Western Bering, the next system is already approaching. Another gale-force front will slide into the area from the North Pacific later today. And then this will become the next weather-maker for the mainland late Sunday into Monday. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models remain in very good agreement through the weekend. This results in moderate to high forecast confidence in the broader synoptic features. Areas of uncertainty with this package are exact snow amounts across Southcentral and how much low-level moisture (fog/stratus) will redevelop overnight across the southern mainland. Generally higher-resolution models were used for fine tuning the forecasts this morning. && .AVIATION... PANC...Conditions are holding tight in the IFR range this morning with light snow. This will continue through about 21z when we expect the snow to taper off and cig/vis to improve. It is possible that we could see conditions go VFR for a few hours this afternoon, but then we expect stratus to redevelop late this evening. Forecast confidence in the stratus is low to medium at this point as offshore flow could bring enough drying to keep it from forming. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... Widespread snow will continue this morning over much of Southcentral as an upper low moves overhead before beginning to cut off over the Gulf by this afternoon. Accumulations are now expected to be slightly lower after seeing the 12z Anchorage sounding this morning indicated only very weak instability in the snow growth zone (-5 to -20C), causing snow ratios to be much less than initially expected. Most areas of the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley should see an additional few inches from this event, however this is about half of what was first thought for these areas. The Gulf low will then move into the Eastern Gulf by this afternoon, which should allow snowfall to gradually diminish from west-east as gusty westerly winds develop in the Gulf. The strongest of these winds are expected from the Barren Islands southward under the upper level jet where widespread storm to hurricane force gusts are expected to develop by this afternoon. These winds will then diminish throughout the area by Sunday morning as the Gulf low quickly makes landfall over the Southern Panhandle ahead of another shortwave ridge. The very active pattern in the Gulf and South Mainland will then continue into early next week as yet another system quickly moves into the Gulf for late Sunday-Monday. This low will take more of a northeasterly track into the Gulf ahead of arctic trough digs through the Mainland. Snow amounts from this system will be heavily dependent on how far east the low tracks as it makes landfall over the North Gulf Coast early Monday, but there is increasingly good agreement that this system will bring another round of widespread snowfall to Southcentral and the North Gulf Coast, which could be heavy at times in Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley for the Monday morning commute. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... A frontal system is currently exiting SW Alaska this morning which will bring an end to widespread snow seen across the area overnight. Cold air wrapping around the base of a trough over the northern Bering will help to support scattered snow showers across the Kuskokwim Delta and River Valley today, though accumulations are expected to be minimal for most locations. Strong westerly winds will also continue to ramp up today, with gusts expected to reach up to 40-50 mph along the coast from Nunivak Island south to Bristol Bay. The long fetch westerly winds will also lead to rough surf along the coastline during the day. A brief period of high pressure will build in tonight before the next stronger system moves in rapidly from the west. A front will bring another round of snow to the area beginning Sunday afternoon tapering off during the day on Monday, with total accumulations expected to be between 3-5 inches. A bigger concern with this system will be another and more intense round of long fetch westerly winds aimed at the southwest coast Sunday night through Monday, which could potentially lead to storm surge issues for low lying areas along the coast including Kuskokwim Bay and the northern Bristol Bay coast. The current timing of the storm brings the peak surge to the coast at low tide Monday morning, which would only produce a moderate surge of 2-4 ft above the high astronomical tide line (HAT). If the system slows down by about 6 hours, the peak surge would coincide with high tide Monday afternoon bringing surge levels possibly up to 5-6 ft above the HAT line, causing some serious coastal erosion and flooding issues. Stay tuned for more updates over the weekend as the timing and impacts of this system are locked down. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)... A surface low in the northern Bering is leading to a tightened pressure gradient and widespread westerly gale force winds across most of the Bering. Cold air advection will lead to scattered snow showers today over the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN before the next system comes barreling into the western Bering/Aleutians tonight. A surface low with associated frontal system will sweep across the region tonight and Sunday bringing an area of storm force winds across the southern Bering and Aleutians. This will cause a rapid rise in sea states with waves building up to 35 ft Sunday night and Monday for the southern Bering between the Pribilofs and Aleutian Islands. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Monday through Friday)...The active pattern remains on tap through next week. For the southern mainland and Kodiak Island we're still on track for a low to traverse the mainland beginning Sunday night supported by a large upper trough. This system remains sufficiently cold to keep all precipitation of the frozen variety except for Kodiak Island where rain should briefly mix in. A triple point low forms along the North Gulf Coast Monday then dives southeast Tuesday and Wednesday. A residual low remains in the Prince William Sound area through Monday night. Coupled with the supporting upper trough, this could result in the snowfall staying over south central Alaska through Monday night. The low and associated trough that extends to the northwest will result in a tight gradient and thus, gusty strong outflow wind out of the Chugach Mountains ringing Prince William Sound Wednesday and Thursday. The gradient relaxes Friday and conditions should settle down over the southern mainland. Previously we were expecting a shot of warmer advection into southwest Alaska Thursday night and Friday. The latest model solutions are backing away from the warm advection intruding into southwest Alaska at this point. Over the Bering Sea, Aleutians and AKPEN we start the week with a large strong low over the eastern Bering Sea that barrels into the mainland Sunday night. Cold air wraps around the west quadrant of this low coupled with the tighter pressure gradient, should result in strong gusty west and northwest wind over the eastern Bering Sea and AKPEN Monday. A weak flat ridge in the wake of this low will rapidly yield to the next incoming storm entering the western Bering Sea late Monday. This low rapidly traverses the Bering Sea before dissipating as it approaches the Bristol Bay region Tuesday night. A large low is then on tap to push into the western Bering Sea Wednesday. Yesterday it appeared this low would push a front to the Bering Sea Coast and strong warm advection into southwest Alaska. Todays model runs have backed off on that solution opting for a more westerly track that will have the front stall then dissipate over the eastern Bering Sea Friday. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Storms 130, 131, 136, 137, 173, 175, 177, 178, 351, 352, 413. Gales 120, 132, 138, 139, 141, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170, 172, 174, 176, 179, 180, 185, 411, 412, 414. Heavy Freezing Spray 130. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP LONG TERM...SA
In the hours before
Local storm report, Feb 24, 10:31 AM AKST, 5 hours 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1031 AM AKST SAT FEB 24 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0935 AM SNOW 14 NNW HOPE 61.08N 149.78W
02/24/2018 M3.3 INCH ANCHORAGE AK PUBLIC
3.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW STOPPING
AROUND 9:30 AM.
0931 AM SNOW 19 SSW KNIK 61.18N 149.86W
02/24/2018 M2.8 INCH ANCHORAGE AK PUBLIC
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 3:36 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Feb 24, 3:36 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Feb 24, 3:36 PM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Feb 24, 3:41 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Feb 25, 3:38 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Feb 25, 3:38 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Feb 25, 3:38 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Feb 25, 3:38 AM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Feb 25, 3:56 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Feb 25, 4:00 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 4 days | |
| Feb 25, 4:00 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Feb 25, 4:17 AM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AFC | 42 hr | |
| Feb 25, 7:05 AM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AFC | 15 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.