Storm Warning 133, NWS Anchorage, AK

560 
FZAK52 PAFC 081635
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-090530-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 984 mb low 410 nm west of St Matthew Island moves into the Gulf of
Anadyr at 1011 mb by Sat morning. Its front moves into Western 
Alaska Thu afternoon. A 999 mb low forms 325 nm north of Attu and 
moves to 25 nm east of Adak at 1001 mb by Sat morning. A 1027 mb 
North Pacific low moves to 130 nm east of St Paul Island at 995 mb 
for Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-090530-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-090530-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 20 kt
becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-090530-
Bristol Bay-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-090530-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, SW wind 20 kt
increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-090530-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ171-090530-
Unalaska Bay-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-090530-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-090530-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-090530-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-090530-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ176-090530-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-090530-
Adak to Kiska-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft Bering side...12 ft Pacific
side.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft Bering side...12 ft Pacific
side.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-090530-
Kiska to Attu-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-090530-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-090530-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-090530-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-090530-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 27 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 50 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 33 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft subsiding to 16 ft in the
afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

527 
FZAK52 PAFC 090024
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-091315-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 mb low 320 nm northwest of St Paul Thu afternoon moves into
the Gulf of Anadyr at 996 mb by Fri afternoon with its front
moving across the western Aleutians through Sat afternoon. A 997 mb
low 335 nm southwest of Sand Point Sat morning moves over Sand 
Point at 979 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-091315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-091315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 
ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-091315-
Bristol Bay-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-091315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-091315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-091315-
Unalaska Bay-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-091315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-091315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-091315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-091315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
Rain and snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-091315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft
building to 17 ft after midnight.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-091315-
Adak to Kiska-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft Bering side...11 ft Pacific side.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-091315-
Kiska to Attu-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-091315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-091315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft after midnight.
Rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-091315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon.  Rain and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-091315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
324 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SW 50 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 33 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23 ft
subsiding to 16 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

870 
FZAK52 PAFC 091233
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-100115-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 991 mb low 150 nm southwest of Gambell moves into the northern
Bering and dissipates Sat morning. A 997 mb low forms 320 nm 
southwest of Saint Matthew Island midday Fri and moves to 95 nm 
southwest of Cold Bay at 978 mb on Sun morning. Its front moves 
across the Aleutians through Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-100115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-100115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt, Seas 8 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E, E
wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon, Seas 7 ft building to
14 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-100115-
Bristol Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-100115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind 30 kt increasing
to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft in the 
afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-100115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-100115-
Unalaska Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-100115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-100115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-100115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-100115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers 
and snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-100115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-100115-
Adak to Kiska-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft after
midnight. Snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-100115-
Kiska to Attu-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-100115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-100115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-100115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-100115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft subsiding to 16 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of 
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 13 ft. A slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt becoming 
NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level air pattern consists of an arctic trough centered
over Northwest Alaska with an amplified upper level ridge
extending from the Haida Gwaii northward through the Yukon
Territory. There is another low in the Gulf of Alaska lifting
northward toward the Gulf Coast. Water vapor satellite imagery
depicts a plume of warm and moist air lifting northward over the
entire state, out ahead of the eastward moving arctic trough. Over
the Bering Sea, there is a weak shortwave ridge axis out ahead of
a strong mobile shortwave ejecting off the Kamchatka Peninsula.
The associated warm front is moving into the western Bering Sea
and will quickly occlude this evening as the overall system moves
eastward.

Locally, the aforementioned front moving north toward the Gulf
Coast and Kodiak is already picking up heavy precipitation returns
on the Middleton Island radar. Some of the warm air
advection/isentropic lift is also moving into the interior west
of the Chugach Mountains and is spreading light rain over parts of
the Kenai Peninsula. With the low in the Gulf of Alaska, this is
promoting a pretty strong down Cook Inlet flow pattern. This
general pattern will have an impact on the upcoming snow event
which will move into Southcentral tonight and Thursday (see
Southcentral discussion).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement with the
general large scale features which make-up the synoptic weather
regime. However, as usual in these types of patterns, they are in
lesser agreement with the details regarding all the disparate
"moving pieces" which are coming together as we speak. Currently
the main differences revolve around how much precipitation falls
across parts of the interior as dry air will be in place, and with
weak northerly down inlet gradient, that dry air will generally
be reinforced through the event. With that said, the models are
close enough with the general pattern that high enough confidence
is in place with this forecast that at least some light
accumulating snow is likely from the Kenai Peninsula to parts of
the Matanuska Valley as well as the Copper Basin, where the
highest amounts are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist for today. Offshore winds will
steadily increase as a low approaches from the south. Light snow
and low ceilings will cause MFVR conditions tonight into Thursday
midday before a rapid drying trend with a return to VFR likely.
Snow should be rather light and is not expected to be heavy at any
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Tonight through Friday)

The main forecast challenge continues to be snow amounts. Overall
the models have come into excellent agreement. They all show
deformation type precipitation developing from east to west
through tomorrow, for the western Kenai through Anchorage Bowl
through eastern Mat-Su Valleys. This afternoon's upper air
sounding for Anchorage also shows a continued moistening of the
airmass, with the dry layer having been reduced to the lowest 4500
feet, and much less of a dewpoint depression there compared to
the morning sounding. As has been the case today, Doppler radar
continues to show echos aloft that are falling into this dry layer
and evaporating while moistening continues from the top down.

The snowfall total looks to be pretty tight in the deformation
zone, with locations along the western edge described above
likely seeing up to 1 inch, while the Hillside to east of Palmer
may be closer to 2 to 3 inches. Further east across the Copper
River Basin it looks like a general 2 to 6 inches will fall, with
the highest totals seen across the higher passes, and between Glen
Allen and Valdez. Closer to the coast, enough warm air will be
pulled northward for this to be mainly a rain event. Precipitation
should quickly diminish in coverage by late morning for the Kenai
through Palmer area, while continuing into the evening for the
Copper Basin. Otherwise, look for seasonal temperatures to
continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Areas of light rain and snow are coming to end this afternoon as
the deformation band over the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges begins to
break down as the surface low in the western Gulf moves away from
the area and the upper-level support diminishes. High pressure
currently situated over the eastern Bering will move over the
southwest tonight bringing clearer and drier conditions to the
region. As the ridge settles overhead tonight, lingering moisture
at the surface combined with partial clearing will pave the way
for areas of fog to develop. The next frontal system will reach
the Kuskokwim Delta coast by midday Thursday, quickly pushing
through the interior by Thursday evening. Behind the main frontal
boundary, cold air aloft and a couple of shortwave troughs
following will bring scattered snow showers and strong westerly
winds to the southwest late Thursday night through Friday. The
combination of persistent west-southwesterly near gale-force winds
from Kuskokwim Bay north to Hooper Bay will produce a one to
three foot surge leading to water levels above MHHW early Friday
morning. This could lead to some minor coastal erosion and
flooding. Precipitation will taper off Friday as weak ridging
develops. By late Friday into early Saturday, the next low lifts
across the AKPEN and into the eastern Bering bringing strong
southeasterly winds and a mix of rain and snow along the southwest
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

High pressure over the eastern Bering is moving toward the west
coast in advance of a front draped from west of Adak northwest to
eastern Russia continues to swing east. Southerly gales and
widespread rain will accompany the front as it approaches Dutch
Harbor tonight and the AKPEN and west coast of Alaska tomorrow.
Behind the front, the parent low will track into the central
Bering. As it does, a wide area of gales will encompass much of
the western two-thirds of the Bering with a core of storm-force
winds riding underneath the center of circulation. The low begins
to weaken late tomorrow as it lifts closer to Saint Lawrence
Island. The long westerly fetch across the bering will build seas
across the central Bering to 25 to 35 feet across the offshore
waters. A second upper level low supported by abundant cold air
aloft will track from the Kamchatka Peninsula into the western
Bering Thursday night and then swing east into the central Bering
Friday. In response, a developing north Pacific low will track
north to the Alaska Peninsula Friday Night while a series of
shortwaves ejecting from the back side of the main low develops
two surface lows will impact the western and central Aleutians
with areas rain/snow showers and northwesterly gales Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday night through Wednesday)...
A very stormy pattern is shaping up for mainland Alaska beginning
Saturday into Sunday and continuing through much of next week. A
strong polar jet digging out of Russia across the Bering Sea Friday
will continue to dig southward across the North Pacific Saturday
through Saturday night. This will cause a ridge to pump up downstream
across the east Pacific. The end result will be a high amplitude
pattern with a trough and deep closed low centered near and to the
south of the Alaska Peninsula and a strong southerly jet centered
along 150 degrees W longitude. Models indicate a tropical connection
with the trough digging as far south as 20 to 30 degrees N
latitude. Thus, expect development of an atmospheric river which
will transport abundant moisture and warmer air northward to the
Gulf of Alaska along with parts of Southcentral and Southwest
Alaska.

Conditions will be extremely favorable for cyclogenesis out ahead
of the digging trough. Expect a series of lows to develop over
the Pacific and track up into the Gulf. Over time, the strength of
these systems will help push the upper ridge eastward, shifting
the anchor trough/low into the Gulf and shifting the atmospheric
river toward the eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska. As would be
expected in such a high amplitude/dynamic pattern, models differ
with handling of individual storm systems during this period.
However, based on the overall pattern described here, there is
high confidence in periods of heavy precipitation and high winds
along the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island and the Gulf of Alaska
on up to Prince William Sound and the Gulf coast. With the
presence of the atmospheric river would expect precipitation to be
all rain near sea level, but heavy snow is a likelihood in
coastal mountain ranges. If the atmospheric river remains pointed
at the same general area for any length of time, flooding would
also be something to watch out for. The forecast for interior
portions of Southcentral and Southwest is a little trickier as
precipitation will depend heavily on track of storms, but would
generally expect periods of snow.

Meanwhile, back on the west side of the trough deep Arctic air
will pour southward across the Bering Sea and Aleutians Sunday
night through Tuesday. This will produce persistent strong and
gusty northerly winds along with showers. The air mass looks cold
enough that much of the precipitation will fall in the form of
snow. As the low along the Alaska Peninsula shifts into the Gulf
late next week this will allow a trough to move in from the
northwest Pacific, bringing storminess back to the Aleutian chain.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 119 120 411 412. Gales 130-132 138 139 175 178-181
185 351 352 413 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...SEB