Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Tucson, AZ

961 
WWUS55 KTWC 022246
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
346 PM MST SUN JUL 2 2017

AZC023-022300-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170702T2300Z/
Santa Cruz-
346 PM MST SUN JUL 2 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 345 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm remained located about 15 miles 
east of Nogales or near Lochiel, and showed very little movement. 

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Lochiel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3151 11083 3154 11052 3133 11055 3133 11077
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 173DEG 4KT 3141 11067 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

272 
WWUS55 KTWC 022302
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
402 PM MST SUN JUL 2 2017

AZC023-022311-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170702T2300Z/
Santa Cruz-
402 PM MST SUN JUL 2 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3151 11083 3154 11052 3133 11055 3133 11077
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 173DEG 4KT 3143 11067 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
255 PM MST Sun Jul 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms into next weekend. The bulk of these
thunderstorms will be east to south of Tucson. High temperatures
will remain a few degrees above normal into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Numerous showers and thunderstorms were occurring from
just east of Nogales eastward to west of Douglas this time. Other
isolated showers/tstms were over the Chiricahua Mountains in eastern
Cochise county, and were encroaching upon far southeast Pima County.
Thunderstorms in the vicinity of Sierra Vista earlier this afternoon
produced hail to one half of an inch, and a peak wind gust of 39
kts/ 45 mph and KFHU. Sunny skies to mostly sunny skies were ongoing
elsewhere.

Based on several high resolution solutions as well as the GFS/ECMWF,
scattered showers/tstms will likely continue this evening mostly
south-to-southeast of the Tucson metro area. As noted in the mid-
morning Discussion, the main concern (or threat) will be the
potential for brief strong, gusty and erratic winds from outflows
versus the potential for heavy rainfall. A slight chance of showers/
tstms continues late tonight near the International border south-to-
southwest of Tucson.

The models also suggest the development of an MCS just south of the
International border later tonight. Assuming this scenario to become
reality, then more widespread coverage of showers/tstms may occur
Monday afternoon. However, have noted that various 02/12Z NWP
solutions suggest that the best chance of shower/tstm occurrence
Monday afternoon/evening will again be south-to-southeast of Tucson,
and across the White Mountains. There is the potential that showers/
tstms may continue late Monday night and perhaps into early Tuesday
morning, especially from Tucson southward and even westward into
western Pima County.

Thereafter, the global-scale models were quite similar with
depicting a broad area of high pressure to be established over the
western/central CONUS Tuesday into next weekend. The circulation
around the upper high that is progged to be centered generally near
the Four Corners or the central Rockies will be conducive for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. Without a total model enumeration, the general
trends appear to be a relatively "down" period Tuesday into
Wednesday, then a general upward trend in showers/tstms, especially
next weekend.

Daytime high temperatures into next weekend will generally average a
few degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 04/00Z.
Scattered TSRA/SHRA south to southeast of KTUS, or generally from
KOLS eastward to KDUG this evening, then -TSRA/-SHRA ending by
midnight. Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly east to south of KTUS Monday
afternoon. MVFR and brief IFR conditions with the stronger TSRA, and
wind gusts to near 45 kts. Otherwise, VFR conditions with surface
wind this evening and Monday afternoon wly to nwly 8-15 kts with
gusts to 20 kts. Surface wind variable in direction less than 12 kts
at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will occur into next weekend, with the bulk of
thunderstorms occurring east to south of Tucson. Expect brief
strong, gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms. The potential
for new fire ignitions exists due to lightning. Otherwise, westerly
afternoon 20-foot winds at 5-15 mph will occur into midweek, then
east to southeast winds will prevail Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
133 PM MST SUN JUL 2 2017

AZZ507-513-022100-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-
133 PM MST SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MST...

At 131 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of thunderstorms
near Sierra Vista, moving northeast at 5 mph. Up to a half inch of
rainfall has been measured with these storms over the Huachuca
Mountains.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Sierra Vista Southeast, Fort Huachuca, Hereford and
Nicksville.

LAT...LON 3137 11022 3155 11041 3166 11026 3150 11006
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 225DEG 5KT 3147 11024

KD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
211 PM MST SUN JUL 2 2017

AZZ503-507-513-022200-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
211 PM MST SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MST...

At 209 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles east of Nogales, or north of Lochiel. Another strong storm was
over Fort Huachuca. Movement was northeast at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Huachuca City, Fort Huachuca,  Hereford, Parker Canyon
Lake.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3151 11066 3170 11042 3167 11018 3134 11019
      3134 11066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 241DEG 5KT 3140 11061

KD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
306 PM MST SUN JUL 2 2017

AZZ503-507-508-513-022230-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet
including Douglas/Willcox-
306 PM MST SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND EASTERN
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MST...

At 303 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms
along the International Border from east of Nogales near Lochiel to
near Bisbee and Naco, and farther north near Sonoita and Elgin.
Movement was northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Palominas, Canelo, Whetstone, Nicksville, Coronado
National Memorial, Parker Canyon Lake.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3175 11076 3182 11050 3134 10970 3133 11074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 241DEG 7KT 3140 11065

KD