Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Tulsa, OK

199 
WWUS54 KTSA 260006
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
706 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

OKC113-117-260030-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-170426T0030Z/
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
706 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES...

At 705 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast of
Morrison, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairfax...                        

Recent trends suggest the storm is weakening. If this trend 
continues the warning may be cancelled early.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 9683 3667 9681 3661 9666 3632 9692
      3633 9693 3634 9703 3651 9703 3651 9701
      3653 9698 3653 9696 3655 9692 3655 9690
      3657 9689 3658 9688 3661 9686 3663 9684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 219DEG 36KT 3639 9694 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
647 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection is expected to continue to develop and spread
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening and
overnight as a cold front enters the CWA tonight. Will continue
tempo groups for all TAF sites for timing of greater potential.
Behind the frontal passage...scattered rain showers and
northwesterly winds will remain possible into the afternoon hours
over the CWA Wednesday before the boundary exits off to the east
southeast. VFR conditions should continue into the overnight hours
and look to fall into MVFR conditions late tonight and continue
much of the day Wednesday behind the front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 311 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front currently poised to our west across northwest Oklahoma
will provide the spark for strong to severe thunderstorms across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tonight. Not expecting to
see any storms develop in northeast Oklahoma until around 00z as
a mid-level shortwave begins to influence the area. Damaging winds
and large hail will be the main concerns with the severe storms.
However, there will be a window early in the event with the potential
for tornadoes as the cells remain more discrete. As we approach the
midnight hour, the thunderstorms will begin to line out along the front.
The threat for severe weather will diminish as we move through the
overnight hours.

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday along the cold front
across western Arkansas and as the main mid-level shortwave moves across
the area. It is possible that some of these storms could be strong to severe
as well. Temperatures will be much cooler on Wednesday in the wake of the
cold front. The showers and thunderstorms are expected to end Wednesday evening
as a the main mid-level low exits the region to the east.

The chances of elevated showers and thunderstorms will return to northern portions
of the area Thursday night with isentropic lift taking place north of a surface
boundary that extends across eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. The weather
on Friday is expected to be dry with the frontal boundary becoming positioned near
the red river. Thunderstorms are expected to become widespread Friday night into Saturday
as the frontal boundary lingers across the area and isentropic lift intensifies.
The showers and thunderstorms will come to an end on Sunday as a mid-level low
sweeps through the area. Severe weather will be possible both Friday night and again
on Saturday with large hail and damaging winds the main concern. Heavy rain and flooding
will also be an issue with 2 to 4 inches of rain possible during late in the week and
into the weekend.

Drier conditions are expected early next week as high pressure prevails.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  57  40  66 /  60  60  20  10
FSM   65  68  43  71 /  60  80  30  10
MLC   61  61  41  71 /  60  70  10  10
BVO   51  57  39  66 /  60  50  20  10
FYV   61  62  40  66 /  60  80  40  10
BYV   62  65  41  65 /  60  80  50  10
MKO   58  59  41  68 /  60  70  20  10
MIO   54  56  39  65 /  60  70  40  10
F10   55  58  41  69 /  60  60  10  10
HHW   66  70  43  72 /  60  70  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
429 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
429 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK BEGINS TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and northwest of an Okemah to Vinita line.
	ONSET...7-10 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas before midnight,
			Northwest Arkansas into Southeast Oklahoma after midnight.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and north of I-40.
	ONSET...After 10 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and north of I-40.
	ONSET...After 10 PM.

DISCUSSION...

An elevated or enhanced risk of severe storms is forecast this
evening and overnight across northeast Oklahoma into far
northwest Arkansas. Large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter
and wind gusts to 70 mph will be the main threats. Isolated
tornadoes are possible with discrete storms and with any kinks or
bows in the eventual squall line. There is a limited risk of
flooding mainly late this evening into the overnight hours.

Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop by
around 6 or 7 PM to the northwest of Tulsa near a merging dryline
and cold front. These storms are expected to lift northeast into
Kansas. Other storms are expected to develop farther south along
the merging dryline and front over central Oklahoma by 8 or 9 PM.
These storms will move quickly into northeast Oklahoma thru the
evening hours, gradually becoming a line and marching east into far
northwest Arkansas by around midnight. More storms will develop on
the outflow reinforced front over east central Oklahoma into west
central Arkansas after midnight. The severe threat is expected to
wane after midnight, while the flooding risk increases, as the
tendency for storms to train over the same areas increases.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

There will be storms ongoing early Wednesday morning, and
depending on the evolution of the squall line and cold front,
there may be a threat for additional severe storms Wednesday
across mainly far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

The stormy pattern will continue with additional severe weather
and heavy rain Friday and Saturday. With the approach of
an upper level storm system Friday afternoon...storms will develop
with the potential for large hail...damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. The severe potential will continue into Saturday...but
the main hazard may transition to heavy rain and flooding Saturday
into Sunday. At least 2 to 3 inches of rain is likely...with
localized higher amounts of 5 or 6 inches. This will definitely
cause some flash flooding and river flooding across portions of
the area this weekend.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

An active week of weather is expected across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts and be
prepared for any watches or warnings that may be issued for your
area.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
529 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

OKZ054-059-252300-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
529 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE AND
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 529 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Morrison,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Ralston...                        Blackburn...
Skedee...

LAT...LON 3662 9672 3632 9653 3625 9691 3625 9692
      3633 9693 3633 9703 3640 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 241DEG 39KT 3629 9701

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

OKZ054-252345-
Osage OK-
621 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

At 621 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Burbank, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Burbank...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Eastern Kaw Lake...               Webb City...
Apperson...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9633 3696 9627 3661 9672 3672 9689
      3675 9686 3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675
      3688 9675 3700 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 219DEG 40KT 3673 9675

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

OKZ054-260015-
Osage OK-
640 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

At 640 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northeast
of Foraker, and another was located 5 miles west southwest of
Foraker, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Elgin...                          Foraker...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9626 3676 9658 3685 9671 3700 9658
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 219DEG 49KT 3691 9653