Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Tallahassee, FL

534 
WGUS72 KTAE 081427
FFSTAE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
927 AM CDT SUN OCT 8 2017

ALC031-081615-
/O.CON.KTAE.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-171008T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coffee AL-
927 AM CDT SUN OCT 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT FOR
COFFEE COUNTY...

At 925 AM CDT, local law enforcement reported flash flooding in 
Coffee county. Road flooding has been reported and one structure is 
threatened by flood waters in the Elba area. A rain gauge near Elba 
has measured rainfall of 5.40 inches so far. Although rainfall rates 
are decreasing, flash flooding will continue as water runs off.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Elba, Enterprise, Fort Rucker, New Brockton, Lee, Kinston, Pine
Level, Mixons Crossroads, Perry Store, Curtis, Carl Folsom A/p, Ino,
Turner Crossroads, Lowry Mill, Camp Humming Hills, Clintonville, Wise
Mill, Roeton, Goodman and Camp Alaflo Bsa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8619 3153 8616 3154 8614 3162 8615
      3162 8579 3140 8579 3120 8599 3119 8611
      3118 8612 3119 8613 3119 8619

$$

42-DVD

498 
WGUS72 KTAE 081610
FFSTAE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1110 AM CDT SUN OCT 8 2017

ALC031-081620-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-171008T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coffee AL-
1110 AM CDT SUN OCT 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR COFFEE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 1115 AM
CDT...

The heavy rain has ended and no additional flooding has been 
reported.

LAT...LON 3153 8619 3153 8616 3154 8614 3162 8615
      3162 8579 3140 8579 3120 8599 3119 8611
      3118 8612 3119 8613 3119 8619

$$

42-DVD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
334 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Hurricane Nate made landfall early this morning near Biloxi,
Mississippi and since that time has been moving north northeast
across extreme southeast Mississippi and will move into southwest
Alabama before daybreak. Tropical storm conditions remain possible
across western Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama where a
tropical storm warning remains in effect through 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT.

THREATS:

1. Tornado - Isolated tornadoes will remain possible today, mainly
across the western half of our forecast area.

2. Wind - Gusts to tropical storm force (up to 40MPH) across the
tropical storm warning area.

3. Rain - Generally 1 to 3 inches is expected with the heavier
amounts favoring the western Florida panhandle and southeast
Alabama. Isolated heavier amounts are possible especially if rain
bands set up and training of storms occur.

4. Coastal - Tidal gauges at high tide reported 2 to 2.5 feet of
inundation earlier this evening. There will be another high tide
over the next several hours at both Apalachicola and Panama City.
Minor coastal flooding will occur around times of high tide.

Some decrease in rain chances will occur this evening as Nate moves
further away from the region.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

By tonight, Nate will be moving into the Tennessee Valley with
deep layer ridging beginning to build into the Tri-State region. A
convergent zone on the nose of the surface ridge and in the wake
of Nate will set up a band of shower and isolated storms that will
slowly pivot northwestward tonight through Monday. This will keep
PoPs rather high on Monday. On Tuesday, PoPs will continue to
remain elevated as the Tri-State region lies in a deformation zone
between a frontal system approaching from the west and the ridge
to our east. Expect above normal highs, around 90 degrees, with
heat indices in the upper 90s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The aforementioned frontal system will approach the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, though the trajectory of the
northern stream shortwave will prevent frontal passage locally.
Thus PoPs will remain elevated ahead of the frontal system, and
gradually lower through the weekend with the dissipation of the
front and the arrival of some drier air aloft. High temperatures
will remain above average through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

Gusty southerly winds will continue through much of the day on
Sunday before diminishing by late in the afternoon. Occasional IFR
cigs this morning should give way to MVFR/VFR conditions by mid to
late morning continuing into the evening.

&&

.MARINE...

Tropical Storm conditions will continue tonight over the western
Florida Panhandle waters, mainly in gusts. Advisory level conditions
are also expected in Apalachee Bay southward. A small craft advisory
has been issued for this area through Sunday evening. Conditions are
expected to improve beginning Monday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next several
days. Breezy conditions with showers and thunderstorms are
expected today as Hurricane Nate moves northeast through the
Southeast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Nate moved on shore overnight and will continue a northeast movement
through central and northern Alabama today. This quick movement will
limit the amount of accumulation to around 1-2 inches and favor
areas across the western Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama in
closest proximity to the track of Nate. Locally heavier amounts are
possible especially if rain bands become established and training
takes place which could double the above accumulation amounts above.

Storm surge inundation of 1 to 3 feet will continue to be likely
across the northern Gulf coast, especially around high tides. Tidal
gauges at high tide at Apalachicola and Panama City reported 2 to
2.5 feet of inundation. Some minor coastal flooding will remain
possible through early Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   85  78  89  74  90 /  50  30  40  20  30
Panama City   84  78  84  75  85 /  60  40  30  10  30
Dothan        82  75  88  72  89 /  80  50  40  20  40
Albany        84  76  89  73  90 /  60  30  40  30  40
Valdosta      85  76  89  73  89 /  60  30  60  30  30
Cross City    86  77  89  72  89 /  60  30  50  20  20
Apalachicola  84  78  85  75  85 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-North Walton-South Walton-
     Washington.

GA...None.
AL...Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Scholl