Mesoscale Discussion 430

Issued

Apr 4, 2017, 3:53 PM CDT (20:53 UTC)

Expired

Apr 4, 2017, 5:30 PM CDT

In force

97 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Norman radar (KTLX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

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991 
ACUS11 KWNS 042053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042053 
OKZ000-TXZ000-042230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern OK and north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121...

Valid 042053Z - 042230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is occurring across portions of
central OK, with storm intensification likely in the short term. The
severe risk continues in Watch 121. Isolated severe potential may
conditionally extend south of the Red River.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is occurring near/east of a
triple point near Norman Oklahoma. This activity will continue
developing eastward/northeastward and mature into organized
supercell structures capable of producing large hail -- some
significantly severe. Storms interacting with the warm frontal zone
from east of Lincoln County to near the Tulsa area and farther
northeast into far southwest MO should be the most intense, with the
risk of producing a tornado or two. Small bowing segments capable of
producing damaging wind gusts may also evolve. A storm evolving on
the warm side of the boundary in Seminole County is becoming
particularly intense, and may mature along the warm frontal zone as
it approaches locations near the Tulsa area. Storms well north of
the boundary will be capable of producing mainly severe hail.

Isolated thunderstorm potential may evolve from a swelling cumulus
field along a surface trough extending south of the triple point
into north Texas. North Texas may be a favored area for very
isolated storm development at the eastern edge of the
warmest/deepest boundary layer in the short term. However, capping
should restrict storm coverage, though isolated severe hail
potential could exist conditionally (watch issuance not presently
likely). However, isolated storms will likely develop southward
along the consolidating cold front in eastern Oklahoma later this
afternoon/evening.

..Cohen.. 04/04/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32789782 33459729 34499709 35509765 36239745 36529711
            36709611 36209543 35309556 33539641 32739729 32789782

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.