Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
559 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Convection that has been ongoing across the northern half of
Missouri overnight is finally making its way into our area.
Surface front at this time extends from southeast Iowa across
northwest Missouri into western Kansas. A southwesterly low level
jet and good moisture pooling ahead of the front will produce
potentially heavy rainfall across northern portions of the CWA
especially this morning.

An upper level trough is currently moving through the Northern
Plains. This trough is expected to continue to deepen and close
off today which will push the surface front through the area this
afternoon. Should be enough instability over the area...though
shear will be rather weak...that some storms this afternoon have a
potential to produce some hail or strong downburst winds.

The surface front is expected to push into Arkansas by tonight
which will bring an end to the rain over most locations this
evening and all areas by late tonight. A cooler and drier air mass
will then move in with the frontal passage dropping lows tonight
into the upper 50s over most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

As an upper level ridge develops over the intermountain
west...the region will remain in northwest flow with a cool and
dry airmass over the area through the remainder of the week.
Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below what they normally are for
this time of year.

Models are indicating that it may be early next week towards the
end of this forecast period before the next chance of rain returns
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move into southwest Missouri
at this hour and will affect all terminals by late this morning.
Depending on the duration of the rainfall over a given
terminal...could see MVFR and even some IFR conditions through
late morning to mid afternoon.

Surface front now over northern Missouri is expected to begin moving
southward by late morning and be through the area by 00z
Wednesday. As the front passes...this will veer winds to a
northwesterly to northerly direction and should bring the rain to
an end. As a drier air mass moves in...expect an improvement to
VFR conditions between 00-06z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Gaede

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
503 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
503 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Hail risk.
  Limited Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.
  Limited Excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Widespread showers and thunderstorms will spread into
  southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this morning.
  Heavy rain and frequent lightning will accompany this
  activity. The strongest storms may also produce small hail and
  wind gusts up to 50 mph. Localized flooding will develop where
  the heaviest rainfall occurs. The strongest storms and
  heaviest rainfall this morning will occur along and north of a
  Pittsburg Kansas to Rolla Missouri line.

  Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the outlook
  area Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves through the
  region. A few strong storms will be possible with heavy rain,
  frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and small hail. The
  afternoon storms will occur primarily along and south of
  Interstate 44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

  Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible by late in the
  weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Gaede