Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Blacksburg, VA

985 
WGUS71 KRNK 280152
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
952 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

VAC077-173-280415-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170528T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Smyth VA-Grayson VA-
952 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT FOR 
SMYTH AND NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES...

At 945 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the heavy rain had ended. 
However, radar estimates that up to, two and a half inches of rain, 
has fallen along the Grayson, Smyth County line between Adwolf and 
Troutdale. Flash flooding is likely within this area. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Adwolf...
Thomas Bridge...
and Troutdale. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small 
creeks and streams, country roads, and other low lying spots.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 8179 3693 8139 3681 8128 3677 8126
      3676 8123 3666 8114 3661 8160 3662 8161
      3664 8161 3664 8162 3667 8164 3679 8170

$$

PM

576 
WGUS71 KRNK 280337
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1137 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

VAC077-173-280343-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170528T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Smyth VA-Grayson VA-
1137 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR 
SMYTH AND NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any road closures.

The heaviest rain this evening fell along the Grayson, Smyth County 
line between Adwolf and Troutdale.  Radar estimates that upwards of 
2.5 inches or rain occurred just southeast of Adwolf in southern 
Smyth County. 

If you observed flooding this evening, please send your reports of 
flooding, including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National 
Weather Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. 
Reports and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather 
Service Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3689 8179 3693 8139 3681 8128 3677 8126
      3676 8123 3666 8114 3661 8160 3662 8161
      3664 8161 3664 8162 3667 8164 3679 8170

$$

PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
338 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A frontal boundary will remain positioned across or near the area
the remainder of the holiday weekend. A series of disturbances will
move southeast along this boundary and impact our area with rounds
of showers and storms. Drier weather returns briefly on Tuesday
before yet another disturbance arrives on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

The recently completed 18Z/2PM sounding shows that the cap aloft has
lowered from roughly 660 mb to 700 mb. However, surface based
parcels, with a CAPE around 3300 J/Kg, should have enough momentum
currently, or very soon, to make it through a very small warm nose
aloft. SPC still has a slight risk of severe weather for our region
this afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds an
equal threat.

Activity is expected to both develop over parts of the area, and
also advect into the region from developing convection currently
across IN/OH/WV. It will be this upstream activity that eventually
concludes tonight's showers and storms between roughly 11AM and 1AM.

After the precipitation ends, skies will start to clear a bit, and
winds will trend light and variable. This will help yield some late
night and early morning fog, especially in areas that receive
precipitation this evening.

On Sunday, our area will remain in a westerly flow that will
continue to be conducive to upstream shortwave troughs moving into
the area from the Ohio Valley. Guidance continue to offer a solution
that advertises a system more potent than the one expected to impact
the area this evening. Compared to today when we have been hindered
by the cap aloft into the afternoon, any cap tomorrow will not
linger as long, and convection is expected to initiate earlier. The
Storm Prediction Center has the area slated under a slight risk
tomorrow as well.

Low temperatures will be in the lower 60s across the mountains with
low to mid 60s across the Piedmont. On Sunday, high temperatures are
forecast in the mid 70s to near 80 across the mountains and around
80 to lower 80s across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Saturday...

A continuation of the active, unsettled weather pattern appears
likely for Sunday evening and potentially through the balance of the
short-term period for our NC foothills/eastern VA counties. Rounds
of strong to at times severe thunderstorms are possible mainly
Sunday evening, with a more conditional risk Monday. In addition,
potential for hydrologic/localized flash flooding may be possible at
any point in slow-moving cells but confidence is low on timing and
location. While not totally a washout, as mentioned previously,
those with outdoor plans this holiday weekend are still strongly
encouraged to keep close monitor of the weather forecast, as there
remains a good deal of uncertainties specific to timing Sunday
night/Monday and then on both convective timing and location for
Monday.

For Sunday Night: An elevated mixed layer associated with steep mid-
level lapse rates, emanating from the southern Plains/Mississippi
Valley in fast belt of zonal mid-level westerlies, is expected to
maintain ample enough instability for the Sunday night period. This
is true even well after sunset. Position of Sunday late-day
convection will heavily influence location of PoPs/Wx. Poor run-to-
run consistency among the guidance suite casts some level of
uncertainty here. Feel that the higher coverage of PoPs should be in
eastern locales, from the Blue ridge foothills eastward, and mainly
before midnight. Unidirectional (westerly) deep-layer wind profile
and sizable deep-layer speed shear suggest a probability of linear
storm mode for the before-midnight period. There may tend to be a
break in storm coverage for the overnight with relative/weak
shortwave ridging and/or because the cold front will have shifted
eastward.

For Memorial Day: Exact location of the NE - > SW oriented surface
cold front lends uncertainty to coverage and location of
thunderstorms. The NAM is the fastest and would have already cleared
the forecast area during the overnight/early-morning hours, while
the GFS is about 6 hours slower. If the GFS is correct, there may be
a conditional risk of a few stronger/psbl severe storms. While deep
layer shear magnitudes still would support persistent updrafts,
instability values are progged to be lower (around 1000-1500 J/kg
MUCAPE) but may begin sooner as CIN is lower than recent days. Kept
PoPs closer to Chance and highest in eastern and southern sections.
Presently SPC's Day 3 outlook maintains General to a slim area of 5%
severe/Marginal Risk across our southeastern VA and northern NC
counties. This seems reasonable for now, though given the
uncertainty in frontal position, it's possible the threat may extend
slightly further northwest. Greater potential does exist further
south.

Front then slows and may stall into the evening of Memorial Day from
southern DE southwest into the Deep South. This occurs ahead of a
mid-level trough in the southern stream progged across central AL
and in increasing broadly cyclonic flow aloft evolving over the
northern tier of states. The slowing/stalling frontal zone may
foster additional opportunities for showers and storms roughly
from Boone east and northeast to south of Lynchburg.

For Tuesday: Weak ridging and drier conditions should exist across
northern and western counties, north of a stalled frontal zone that
will continue to focus rainfall chances along southern portions of
the forecast area. Front appears to drift southward by the
afternoon, so I've reflected PoPs generally lowering into the
afternoon in the NC foothills/Piedmont counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Saturday...

Brief period of clearing/dry conditions Tuesday evening. By
Wednesday, a northern-stream mid-level disturbance pivoting around
the cyclonic flow aloft advances southward may generate another
round of showers along its surface cold front. This appears to clear
the forecast area late Wednesday night. Clearing and notably cooler
and drier conditions still appear in the offing for Thursday, with
850 mb temperatures dropping to values from +8 to +10C, compared to
values nearly twice those in the near-/short-term periods. Late week
into the weekend appears to be more unsettled again. Due to
potential active weather in the short term, stuck mostly with a
blend of guidance for the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and progress east-southeast through the area. Some of
these will originate upstream in WV/OH, others will develop
across central to eastern parts of the are where more sunshine
has helped allow conditions to be a bit more unstable.

Most of the area will experience VFR conditions through the
evening. However, some MVFR cloud cover is expected across the
mountains this afternoon, and any heavier showers and storms
will produce some temporary sub-VFR conditions.

Some late night and early morning MVFR fog is expected. Any
sub-VFR conditions should improve to VFR by early morning.
Additional showers will arrive in western section of the area
late Sunday morning.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Additional convection and sub-VFR conditions probable Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night as another disturbance crosses the
area.

Convection becomes less organized Monday into Tuesday with hit
and miss sub-VFR conditions. Perhaps late night and early
morning sub-VFR river and mountain valley fog.

Better organization of convection Wednesday with the passage of
a cold front. Thursday is expected to be VFR and dry.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 115 PM EDT Saturday...

We continue to have river flood warnings in effect for the Dan River
at South Boston and on the Roanoke River at Randolph. Flood wave
from upstream gages has moved into the lower reaches of these river
basins, with crests expected at each gage Friday afternoon but will
remain above flood stage until Saturday See specific point flood
warnings in effect for these gages. Elsewhere, hydrographs at many
small creek and larger main stem rivers continue to show a general
receding trend. While the receding trend is expected to continue, a
reminder that rivers still are elevated and there are still fast
flows that can be dangerous.

Looking ahead into the Memorial Day weekend...there is the potential
for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall is
possible from any thunderstorms, especially in storms that can be
slow moving, affect urban catchments and/or anchor to the terrain.
Flash flood guidance values are low (1.25-2.5" in 3 hours lowest in
the mountains and highest in the southern Piedmont), and would
precondition the region for flash flooding and rises on smaller
creeks if rainfall amounts and rates prove high enough. Confidence
is low on expected rain amounts and specific periods of time of
greater risk.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...AL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
701 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

VAZ035-045>047-058-059-282315-
Amherst-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
701 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Also, localized flash flooding is possible with any of the heavier
storms, or where storms persist for a extended period of time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists across the area Sunday
and Sunday evening. The biggest threat will be equal chances of
large hail and damaging winds. Also, localized flash flooding is
possible with any of the heavier storms, or where storms persist for
a extended period of time.

On Monday, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. For
the remainder of the period, Tuesday through Friday, the probability
of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ005-006-VAZ011-014-018>020-022>024-033-034-043-044-WVZ042>044-507-
508-282315-
Rockingham-Caswell-Giles-Montgomery-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Franklin-Bedford-Henry-Pittsylvania-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
701 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia
and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists across the area this
evening. The biggest threat will be equal chances of large hail and
damaging winds. Also, localized flash flooding is possible with any
of the heavier storms, or where storms persist for a extended period
of time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists across the area Sunday
and Sunday evening. The biggest threat will be equal chances of
large hail and damaging winds. Also, localized flash flooding is
possible with any of the heavier storms, or where storms persist for
a extended period of time.

On Monday, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly
east and south of the Blue Ridge. For the remainder of the period,
Tuesday through Friday, the probability of widespread hazardous
weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012-013-015>017-032-282315-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-
Bland-Wythe-Pulaski-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-
701 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Also, localized flash flooding is possible with any of the heavier
storms, or where storms persist for a extended period of time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists across the area Sunday
and Sunday evening. The biggest threat will be equal chances of
large hail and damaging winds. Also, localized flash flooding is
possible with any of the heavier storms, or where storms persist for
a extended period of time.

On Monday, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly
east and south of the Blue Ridge. For the remainder of the period,
Tuesday through Friday, the probability of widespread hazardous
weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             5 WSW MARION            36.79N 81.58W
05/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       SMYTH              VA   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ADWOOLFE
            ROAD AND LAUREL SPRINGS ROAD

&&

PW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
751 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

WVZ043-044-507-508-280045-
Western Greenbrier-Summers-Eastern Greenbrier-Monroe-
751 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
GREENBRIER...NORTHEASTERN SUMMERS AND NORTH CENTRAL MONROE
COUNTIES...

At 751 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Rainelle,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lewisburg...
Ronceverte...
Rainelle...
Alderson...
and Rupert.

LAT...LON 3774 8038 3758 8065 3785 8086 3787 8081
      3787 8075 3795 8081 3799 8077 3799 8079
      3801 8079 3802 8080 3803 8082 3806 8076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 322DEG 16KT 3796 8080

KK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
753 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             SE THOMAS BRIDGE        36.76N 81.56W
05/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       SMYTH              VA   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL ON FLATWOODS ROAD CLOSE TO THE TOWN
            OF THOMAS BRIDGE

&&

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             E SALTVILLE             36.88N 81.76W
05/27/2017  M1.75 INCH       SMYTH              VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIEWER PIC IN SALTVILLE FROM DAVID BOYD/WCYB OF HAIL
            RANGING FROM PING PONG TO GOLF BALL SIZE. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

LOCONTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
756 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             4 E CHILHOWIE           36.80N 81.61W
05/27/2017  E2.00 INCH       SMYTH              VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.

&&

WHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             2 ENE SALTVILLE         36.89N 81.72W
05/27/2017  M1.75 INCH       SMYTH              VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIEWER PIC IN SALTVILLE FROM DAVID BOYD/WCYB OF HAIL
            RANGING FROM PING PONG TO GOLF BALL SIZE. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

LOCONTO