Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Reno, NV

850 
WWUS55 KREV 260246
SVSREV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
746 PM PDT SUN JUN 25 2017

NVC019-029-031-260256-
/O.CAN.KREV.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170626T0300Z/
Storey NV-Washoe NV-Lyon NV-
746 PM PDT SUN JUN 25 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR STOREY...SOUTHERN WASHOE AND
NORTH CENTRAL LYON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3952 11926 3965 11943 3983 11928 3973 11920
      3963 11920 3959 11918
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 226DEG 4KT 3965 11926 

$$

JW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
159 PM PDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this
evening with the best coverage likely over northeast California.
Critical fire weather conditions are likely Monday as very dry
air combines with gusty winds. Choppy lake conditions are also
likely Monday. Temperatures will cool down to near seasonal
averages through midweek, then slowly warm up again late in the
week with mainly dry weather prevailing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated thunderstorms trying to develop in the lee of the Sierra
due to differential heating should be relatively short lived this
evening. Storms may last a little longer east of the Sierra where
a weak zephyr may focus development, along the Pine Nuts, and the
Virginia Range...but are not expected to take on any organized
characteristics. To the north there is greater potential for
loosely organized, longer-lived convection due to the presence of
upper level support in the form of potential vorticity advection.
Areas north of a line from Susanville to Gerlach show the best
potential for any organization. Even so...storms will still be no
more than widely scattered and the support does not last long.
Cells should be moving fast enough to limit the amount of
precipitation...but that increases the chance for dry lightning
strikes.

That brings us to Monday when drier air moves into all but the
very far northern parts of the forecast area...heights and
temperatures decrease and breezes increase. The combination of
breezy winds and drier air will create critical fire weather
conditions in areas where fuels are receptive. We are also
concerned with holdovers from lightning strikes this evening.
More details are in the Fire Weather section. We have issued Lake
Wind Advisories for areas east of the Sierra Front into parts of
the basin and range to account for gusty winds Monday as well.
Forecast guidance does show a little residual moisture interacting
with a secondary vorticity lobe over the far northern forecast
area Monday evening...so a slight chance of thunderstorms was
added there.

Beyond Monday the weather turns generally benign with dry
westerly flow over much of the region. High temperatures should be
closer to normal or just a little above through Thursday.

The GFS persists in bringing a weak upper level low into the
region late Friday. The ECMWF has a similar feature...but is not
as aggressive. There is a lack of moisture...but the mere
presence of the feature along with increasing instability due to
warming temperatures could develop afternoon towering cumulus.
Right now we will leave mention of thunderstorms out of the
forecast.

The models diverge more for Saturday with the ECMWF more
aggressive with a deeper trough by then. The GFS is trying to
start building a ridge again. Both are back to westerly flow for
Sunday. Given the differences between the models and some run-to-
run differences cropping up in each model...we will keep the
explicit mention of storms out of the forecast for next
weekend...but they are not out of the question for Saturday.
Temperatures warm a bit more for Saturday and Sunday...back to
well above average.

&&

.AVIATION...

Convection across western Nevada and the eastern Sierra should
decrease through the evening. Over northeast California and far
northwest Nevada the convection is likely to continue into the
later evening hours. The only terminals likely to see any
thunderstorm activity this evening are KMMH and KSVE.

By Monday...breezy winds develop across the forecast area with
surface gusts east of the Sierra and through western Nevada
reaching 30-35 kts at times. Another breezy day is likely Tuesday
with surface gusts approaching 25-30 kts.

Winds should decrease into Wednesday and Thursday. Friday into
next weekend may see a return to isolated convection along and
just east of the Sierra each afternoon and evening...but right now
the chances are less than 15%.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Thunderstorms are looking less likely along the Sierra Front from
around Susanville through northern Mono County this afternoon and
evening. Clouds are forming, but elements are relatively flat.
Still, a late afternoon thunderstorm is possible (about a 10%
chance) over the Virginia Range. Slight chances of general
thunderstorms remain possible mainly for eastern Mono and western
Mineral Counties where surface convergence is expected to be
stronger. Also, the best chances of dry variety thunderstorms
remain in northern Lassen County with slight chances for far
northern Washoe/Modoc counties. Holdovers from dry strikes will be
a concern heading into Monday. Overall, overnight recoveries will
be poor to moderate for most valleys.

The upper circulation shifts towards the west coast tonight resulting
in a stronger pressure gradient over the region for Monday in the
afternoon and evening. It is expected that winds will increase
across northern Nevada and far northeastern California, sustained 15
to 20 mph with gusts around 35 mph. Coupled with low RH in the
single digits to 14%, critical fire weather conditions will be
likely. As such, the Fire Weather Watches for the Sierra Front and
Nevada interior, including northern Mineral County, have been
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Also, fine fuels have been deemed
ready for eastern Lassen County and a portion of zone 458 which
includes Gerlach and the Smoke Creek Desert. Red Flag Warnings
have been issued for these areas as well. Recoveries will
continue to be poor to moderate for most valleys.

Winds remain breezy Tuesday afternoon, but below criteria. Still,
winds will be sufficient to drive any existing fires that may be
occurring in valley locations mainly through nearly continuous
grasses and brush. Afternoon winds become lighter by Wednesday with
slightly cooler temperatures. Boyd

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Monday
     NVZ450-453-458-459.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Monday for Washoe Lake
     in NVZ003.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ004.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Monday CAZ278.

&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service RENO NV
210 PM PDT Sun Jun 25 2017

CAZ070-071-NVZ003-005-252230-
Surprise Valley California-Lassen-Eastern Plumas-
Eastern Sierra Counties-Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden Area-
Northern Washoe County-
Including the cities of Cedarville, Eagleville, Fort Bidwell,
Portola, Susanville, Westwood, Sierraville, Loyalton, Sparks,
Verdi, Gardnerville, Virginia City, Empire, and Gerlach
210 PM PDT Sun Jun 25 2017

...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY...

Thunderstorms will continue to develop across northern Lassen
County through the late afternoon hours. The strongest storms are
likely north of a line from Bogard to Susanville. These storms
could produce small hail and gusty winds to near 50 mph. The
storms will move north at near 15 mph limiting the potential for
heavy rain. But this will also create the possibility of dry
lightning strikes across northern Lassen County.

Elsewhere...isolated storms are trying to develop along the Pine
Nut Mountains in Douglas County. These storms could redevelop
north into the Virginia Range. Any of these storms will be short
lived with gusty winds to near 45 mph and small hail. Storms could
also develop into northern Washoe County and the Surprise Valley
later this evening.

http://weather.gov/reno

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
253 PM PDT SUN JUN 25 2017

CAZ071-252230-
Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties CA-
253 PM PDT SUN JUN 25 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR STANDISH THROUGH 330 PM...

At 251 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Standish moving north at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm. Brief moderate to heavy rain is also possible with this storm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4021 12034 4030 12059 4058 12054 4050 12021
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 190DEG 9KT 4033 12044

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
332 PM PDT SUN JUN 25 2017

CAZ071-252315-
Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties CA-
332 PM PDT SUN JUN 25 2017

...Strong Thunderstorm affecting California 139 north of Eagle
Lake...

At 331 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles north of Spaulding, or 16 miles north of Eagle Lake, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Junction CA 139 And CA 513.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm will affect travelers on California 139 between
approximately 15 to 20 miles north of Eagle Lake. Drivers should
expect strong gusty cross winds with rapid visibility reductions.
Heavy rainfall will result in ponding of water. Slow down when
encountering heavy rain and turn on your headlights.

&&

LAT...LON 4101 12062 4072 12062 4072 12099 4101 12099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 208DEG 11KT 4088 12080

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
712 PM PDT SUN JUN 25 2017

NVZ003-004-260245-
Western Nevada Basin and Range including Pyramid Lake NV-
Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden Area NV-
712 PM PDT SUN JUN 25 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WADSWORTH...FERNLEY AND SILVER
SPRINGS...

At 710 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fernley to near Silver Springs. Movement
was northeast at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fernley, Silver Springs, Fernley - Tiger Field Airport, Wadsworth,
andSilver Springs Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms will affect travelers on Interstate 80 between mile
markers 38 and 50 and along U.S. 95 Alternate between Fernley and
Silver Springs. Drivers should expect strong gusty cross winds with
rapid visibility reductions. Heavy rainfall will result in ponding
of water. Slow down when encountering heavy rain and turn on your
headlights.

&&

LAT...LON 3983 11914 3946 11904 3938 11927 3965 11939
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 235DEG 9KT 3962 11930 3948 11925

JW