Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
322 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017

An upper level ridge will be centered over eastern UT and western
CO tonight and Wed. The forecast models show isold shower/tstms
being possible thru the evening hours, mostly ending before 06Z.
The main threats with storms this evening will be wind gusts of
40-50 mph and lightning, but some of the stronger storms could
also produce hail.

On Wed, lingering moisture and daytime heating are expected to lead
to isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening
hours, mainly over and near the mountains.  Temps will again be a
little above average, with highs in the 80s in the Upper Arkansas
and San Luis Valleys, and in the 90s acrs the southeast plains.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Upper ridging is projected to become centered over and/or near the
4-Corners region during the balance of the longer term. In
addition, subtle upper disturbances in combination with adequate
atmospheric moisture, the daily orographic heating cycle and
surface boundaries should be noted over the forecast district
during the longer term.

Nearly typical early July meteorological conditions are
anticipated during the longer term with daily isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected(generally favoring
higher terrain locations) in combination with generally low-grade
gradient winds and above seasonal early July temperatures.

Overall, a gradual increase in pops is projected from later
Thursday into at least the weekend as deeper atmospheric moisture
develops across the CWFA. Some of these storms will be capable of
generating locally heavy rainfall(including localized flooding
potential) and also may become quite intense at times.

As touched upon briefly, above seasonal early July temperatures
are anticipated during the longer term with warmest conditions
still anticipated Thursday and then again by next Tuesday(with
maximum temperatures nearing the Century Mark over several
eastern locations Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS.  There is a
chance that showers or tstms could move into the vicinity of the
terminal forecast sites this evening, with strong wind gusts up to
45 kts being the main threat. Wed afternoon, there will be a slight
chance for showers/tstms over and near the mtns that could affect
the KCOS and KALS areas, with gusty winds again being the main
threat.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1109 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-051715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1109 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the
region today.  One or two strong to near severe thunderstorms will
be possible east of a line from La Junta to Kim this afternoon
and early evening. Hail up to the size of quarters, wind gust up
to 60 mph, lightning and locally heavy rain will be possible with
the isolated stronger storms, particularly near the Kansas border.

Farther west, thunderstorms will be more high based with localized
wind gusts up to 55 mph, lightning, and brief light to moderate
rainfall the primary risks. Some of the stronger storms could
produce small hail.

Thunderstorms will end from west to east during the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the
area each day. Most storms will be in the afternoon and evening
hours, with the main threats being lightning and wind gusts up to
50 mph. Small hail and locally heavy rainfall may also accompany
the strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and evening.

28/28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
218 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

COZ086>088-042130-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
218 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO...NORTH
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 216 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Blende, or 8 miles southeast of Pueblo, moving to the south-
southwest at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blende and Salt Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also possible with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10458 3818 10420 3759 10449 3766 10482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 013DEG 23KT 3818 10449

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
307 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

COZ089-093-095-097-042230-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Crowley County CO-
Western Kiowa County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
307 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OTERO...SOUTHWESTERN
KIOWA...EAST CENTRAL CROWLEY AND WESTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
MDT...

At 305 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a developing strong
thunderstorm near Arlington, or 29 miles north of La Junta, moving
south at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts around 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations potentially impacted include...La Junta, Las Animas,
Cheraw, Higbee, Blue Lake and Arlington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also possible with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 10352 3845 10322 3776 10319 3777 10363
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 003DEG 22KT 3840 10341

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
323 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

COZ089-093-095-097-042200-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Crowley County CO-
Western Kiowa County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
323 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OTERO...SOUTHWESTERN
KIOWA...EAST CENTRAL CROWLEY AND NORTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 400
PM MDT...

At 322 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Arlington, or 24 miles north of North La Junta, moving south at 20
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Las Animas, Cheraw, Arlington and Blue Lake.

LAT...LON 3838 10350 3838 10327 3805 10322 3805 10356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 001DEG 19KT 3831 10339

28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
338 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

COZ087-088-042300-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
338 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HUERFANO AND CENTRAL
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 337 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking developing strong
thunderstorms centered 13 miles east of Walsenburg, or 30 miles
north of Trinidad, moving south-southeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts around 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations potentially impacted include...
Model and Hoehne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with these
storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 10481 3787 10456 3730 10409 3713 10441
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 330DEG 13KT 3761 10452

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
357 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

COZ096-098-042330-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
357 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PROWERS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 356 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a developing strong
thunderstorm near Queens Reservoir, or 19 miles north of Lamar,
moving south at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts around 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted potentially include...
Lamar, Granada, Neeoshe Reservoir, Bristol and Queens Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3842 10271 3844 10247 3793 10221 3793 10262
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 348DEG 16KT 3836 10258

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
421 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

COZ096>098-042245-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
Eastern Kiowa County CO-
421 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PROWERS...
SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA AND EAST CENTRAL BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 421 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Queens Reservoir, or 11 miles north of Lamar, moving south at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lamar, Wiley and Queens Reservoir.

LAT...LON 3830 10269 3824 10251 3787 10263 3797 10295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 021DEG 19KT 3824 10264

Hodanish