Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

432 
WGUS41 KPHI 060757
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
357 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2017

NJC025-029-061200-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170506T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ocean NJ-Monmouth NJ-
357 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2017

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ  has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Ocean County in southern New Jersey...
  Southeastern Monmouth County in central New Jersey...

* Until 800 AM EDT

* At 351 AM EDT...The Manasquan River at Allenwood remains above 
  flood stage, and continues to slowly rise. Meanwhile, the 
  Manasquan River at Squankum has crested, and is slowly falling 
  below flood stage. The North Branch of the Metedeconk River at 
  Lakewood remains just below flood stage. This is all in response 
  to the 2 to 4 inches of rain that fell on Friday.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Toms River, Asbury Park, Lakewood, Jackson, Howell, Tinton Falls,
  Manasquan, Point Pleasant Beach, Seaside Heights, Lakehurst,
  Farmingdale, Mantoloking, Leisure Village, Allenwood, Dover Beaches
  North, Pleasant Plains, Cedar Glen West, Leisure Village East,
  Dover Beaches South and Adelphia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3993 7405 4001 7438 4026 7425 4023 7399

$$

MPS

460 
WGUS81 KPHI 060935
FLSPHI

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
535 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2017

NJC025-029-061200-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170506T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ocean NJ-Monmouth NJ-
535 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2017

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OCEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN MONMOUTH COUNTIES...

At 531 AM EDT, reporting gauges indicated flooding across the warned 
area. The Manasquan River at Allenwood remains above flood stage, 
but seems to have crested, and is beginning to subside, while the 
Manasquan River at Squankum has fallen below flood stage. The North 
Branch of the Metedeconk River at Lakewood risen to just above flood 
stage. This is all in response to the 2 to 4 inches of rain that 
fell on Friday.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Toms River, Asbury Park, Lakewood, Jackson, Howell, Tinton Falls,
Manasquan, Point Pleasant Beach, Seaside Heights, Lakehurst,
Farmingdale, Mantoloking, Leisure Village, Allenwood, Dover Beaches
North, Pleasant Plains, Cedar Glen West, Leisure Village East, Dover
Beaches South and Adelphia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3993 7405 4001 7438 4026 7425 4023 7399

$$

MPS

029 
WGUS81 KPHI 061153
FLSPHI

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
753 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2017

NJC025-029-061203-
/O.EXP.KPHI.FA.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170506T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ocean NJ-Monmouth NJ-
753 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2017

...THE FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 800 AM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN OCEAN
AND SOUTHEASTERN MONMOUTH COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded, and are no longer expected to pose a
threat to life or property. Please continue to heed any road
closures.

LAT...LON 3993 7405 4001 7438 4026 7425 4023 7399

$$

SFJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
948 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over western Pennsylvania will move into New York
State Saturday and then southeastern Canada on Sunday. The
associated cold front will move through our region Saturday.
The low will eventually evolve into a large low pressure system
off the coast of eastern New England during mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM ESTF: raised temps again in the moist southerly flow
ahead of Saturdays cold frontal passage. Also raised wind gusts
on the land a bit and added patchy drizzle. We could see
measurable drizzle in some places overnight. Its certainly
getting damp here in Mt Holly as of 935 PM. Showers am tending
to think less than more and thunder has been withdrawn from the
forecast. Fog was enhanced in the Poconos and added elsewhere
but not confident of dense fog except upslope areas of the
Poconos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
On Saturday, the low pressure will lift through central New York and
into southeastern Canada during the day. A cold front is forecast
to move across the area later during the day. There will be one
short short wave/vorticity impulses moving through early in the
day, with another expected later in the day as the surface
boundary crosses the area. This will help keep a chance of
showers in the forecast through the day Saturday, but the
highest probabilities will be during the afternoon. Winds during
the afternoon Saturday should gust around 20- 25 mph at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday through Tuesday...The larger scale mid level pattern
through this period will feature a high amplitude ridge over the
central U.S. transitioning to a high over low blocking pattern
by mid week. The result of this is that the low pressure system
is expected to generally remain over the northeastern U.S. and
southeastern Canada through much of next week. Though the low
may wobble around as short wave troughs dig on the back side of
the main low, the flow over our region stays northwesterly,
resulting in reinforcing cold air advection. The cold air aloft
may continue to provide enough instability during the daylight
hours for a few showers to develop. This may be across our
northern areas closer to the center of the closed low, with any
development mostly in the afternoon and early evening. The
presence of a potent closed low overhead with the associated
cold air aloft should lead to additional cloud cover during the
heating of the day. Temperature wise, have trended towards the
colder guidance especially for day time highs as I suspect that
statistical guidance is underestimating the cold air advection
with this rather unusual (for this time of the year) pattern.
Frost/freeze headlines are possible each night Sunday night
through Tuesday night. If showers develop early enough Monday
morning, temperatures could be low enough to support a rain/snow
mix in the higher elevations of the Poconos.

For Wednesday and Friday...The center of the closed low may
wobble south some during Wednesday before shifting offshore.
This should keep surface low pressure offshore, although some
guidance wants to shift the surface low westward some later
Wednesday and Thursday. This is not anticipated to make it this
far west given some ridging trying to build into the Ohio Valley
as the flow aloft starts to open up some. While a few showers
cannot be ruled out Wednesday during peak heating, it appears as
of now that this time frame is mainly dry. We should see some
temperature moderation especially Thursday and Friday as the
pattern aloft becomes more zonal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...please see TAFS for details but essentially cigs 500
to 1500 feet with patchy 3mi drizzle fog, should clear northward
between 08z-12z with vsby restrictions generally minimal except
possibly for 2 or 3 hours near 08z when below 1 mi is possible.
A southeast wind gusty to near 20 kt most of the area except
light southeast vcnty KABE KRDG KTTN.

Saturday...Cigs generally MVFR in the morning and VFR in the
afternoon with brief MVFR conds in sct, mainly afternoon showers.
Wind becoming southwest and gusty 20-25 kt in weak cool air
advection.

Outlook...

Sunday...there is a chance of MVFR conditions with low clouds in the
morning and with any showers that may develop.

Monday and Tuesday...Mostly VFR conditions expected. Slight chance
of showers on Monday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA continues through Saturday as issued this afternoon. Gusty
south to southeast winds 25 kt at times tonight becoming southwest
and still gusty 25 kt Saturday. Hazardous seas continue into
Saturday for the Atlantic waters.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday...elevated seas above 5 feet are expected
to continue through Saturday night, but will be gradually
diminishing. Seas near 5 feet may linger into the day time on
Sunday, but confidence is low if it will continue through this
period.

Sunday night though Wednesday...wind gusts near 25 kt are possible
Monday afternoon. Otherwise, winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
At least one source of guidance shows tides on the Chesapeake
Bay getting close to minor flooding thresholds with tonight's
high tide. However, at this time we are expecting water levels
to stay below advisory criteria. We will continue to monitor
through the evening hours though. reviewed at 9 PM...no change.
close call on reaching 3.8 ft MLLW at 152 AM EDT Saturday
vicinity Cambridge MD

&&

.CLIMATE...
Three daily record event rainfall reports were issued this
afternoon. ACY ILG TTN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431.

&&

Synopsis...Drag/Johnson
Near Term...Drag 947
Short Term...Robertson 947
Long Term...Gorse/Johnson 947
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Robertson 947
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Robertson 947
Tides/Coastal Flooding...947
Climate...947

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
348 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ007>010-012>027-PAZ060>062-070-
071-101>106-062000-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
348 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-062000-
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
348 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Frost or even a freeze is possible Sunday night, Monday night, and
Tuesday night in the southern Poconos and northwestern New Jersey.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-452>455-062000-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
348 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A brief period of gale force gusts is possible early Saturday
morning. However confidence is low at this time..

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ450-451-062000-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
348 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.