Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Warnings in 2017

Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS New York, NY

March 12, 20174 counties in Connecticut; 6 counties in New York; 4 counties in New Jersey

NWS New York, NY issued this winter storm warning at Mar 12, 2017, 4:12 PM EDT for 4 counties in Connecticut; 6 counties in New York; 4 counties in New Jersey. It took effect at Mar 14, 2017, 12:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 8 hr. 20 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Mar 12, 2017, 4:12 PM EDT (20:12 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 14, 2017, 12:00 AM EDT
Expired
Mar 14, 2017, 7:59 AM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
NWS New York, NY

Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Nassau County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Mar 14, 4:15 AM EDTSNOW 2.8North Babylon, NY
Mar 14, 5:27 AM EDTSNOW 4.2Mahwah, NJ
Mar 14, 5:55 AM EDTSNOW 3.3North Babylon, NY
Mar 14, 6:20 AM EDTSNOW 3.3Sayville, NY
Mar 14, 6:20 AM EDTSNOW 3.5North Babylon, NY
Mar 14, 6:20 AM EDTSNOW 3.5Selden, NY
Mar 14, 6:20 AM EDTSNOW 3.5Woodbury, NY
Mar 14, 7:00 AM EDTSNOW 2.7Bay Shore, NY
Mar 14, 7:18 AM EDTSNOW 8Mahopac Falls, NY
Mar 14, 7:20 AM EDTSNOW 2.3Ridge, NY
Mar 14, 7:20 AM EDTSNOW 5.5West Milford, NJ
Mar 14, 7:30 AM EDTSNOW 4.5Babylon, NY
Mar 14, 7:45 AM EDTSNOW 5.5Stony Point, NY
Mar 14, 7:58 AM EDTSNOW 2.7Mount Sinai, NY
Mar 14, 8:00 AM EDTFREEZING RAIN 0.02Islip Airport, NY
Mar 14, 8:00 AM EDTSNOW 2.8Islip Airport, NYFAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
Mar 14, 8:00 AM EDTSNOW 2.9Upton, NY
Mar 14, 8:00 AM EDTSNOW 3.8Newark Airport, NJ
Mar 14, 8:00 AM EDTSNOW 5Wayne, NJ
Mar 14, 8:02 AM EDTSNOW 3.5Newark Airport, NJFAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-03-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-03-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -53 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
890 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
73 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-53 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-73 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

777 
WWUS41 KOKX 122012
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...Major Winter Storm Monday night into Tuesday night...

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-131000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0003.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0004.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
412 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for heavy snow, which is in effect from midnight Monday 
night to midnight EDT Tuesday night. The Winter Storm Watch is no 
longer in effect.

* Accumulations...Snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches.

* Locations...Portions of northeastern New Jersey, Orange, 
Putnam, Rockland, Northern Westchester, Northern Fairfield, and 
Northern New Haven counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.

* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Hazardous travel and potential for power outages.

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Temperatures...In the mid to upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

CTZ007>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-131000-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-
Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
412 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* Locations...New York City, Long Island, Southern Westchester, 
  Southern Fairfield, Southern New Haven, Middlesex, and New 
  London counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.

* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel and potential for power outages. 
  Damaging wind gusts possible across eastern Long Island and 
  extreme southeastern Connecticut.

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph.

* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.

&&

$$
6 follow-up statements
459 
WWUS41 KOKX 130818
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
418 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...Major Winter Storm Late Tonight into Tuesday Evening...

CTZ005-006-NJZ004-103-105-107-NYZ069-070-132200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.W.0004.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Eastern Passaic-
Western Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
418 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
Tuesday night. The Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect.

* Locations...Portions of northeastern New Jersey, Northern 
  Westchester, Northern Fairfield, and Northern New Haven 
  counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions.

* Snow Accumulations...18 to 24 inches.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour early Tuesday morning
  into Tuesday afternoon.

* Timing...Late Tonight through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at times.
  Several roads may become impassable. Power outages possible.

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph on
  Tuesday.

* Temperatures...In the mid 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

CTZ007>010-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-132200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-
Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
418 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
Tuesday night. The Blizzard Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations...Metropolitan New York City and New Jersey, Western
  Long Island, Southern Westchester, Southern Fairfield, Southern
  New Haven, Northern Middlesex, and Northern New London 
  counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions. Snow may mix
  with or change to sleet and rain across southern and eastern
  coastal areas late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 20 inches...highest amounts to the
  north and west. 

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour early Tuesday morning 
  into early Tuesday afternoon.

* Timing...Late tonight into Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at times.
  Several roads may become impassable. Power outages possible. 
  Damaging wind gusts possible across Long Island and coastal 
  Connecticut.

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 55 mph on
  Tuesday. Highest winds across coastal areas.

* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

CTZ011-012-NYZ079-081-132200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.WS.W.0004.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-
418 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for Heavy Snow and Strong Winds, which is in effect from 
midnight tonight to midnight EDT Tuesday night. The Blizzard Watch
is no longer in effect.

* Locations...Eastern Long Island, Southern Middlesex, and 
  Southern New London counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow with possible Blizzard conditions
  Tuesday morning. Snow is expected to mix with or change to 
  sleet and rain late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. 

* Snow Accumulations...8 to 14 inches.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour early Tuesday morning.

* Timing...Late tonight into Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel late tonight into Tuesday morning. 
  Damaging wind gusts possible.

* Winds...Northeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph on 
  Tuesday.

* Temperatures...Around 30.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

NJZ002-NYZ067-068-132200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0004.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
418 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

* Locations...Orange and Putnam counties in New York and Western
  Passaic County in New Jersey.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Gusty winds.

* Snow Accumulations...18 to 24 inches.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour early Tuesday morning 
  into tuesday afternoon.

* Timing...Late tonight into Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at times.
  Several roads may become impassable.

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph on 
  Tuesday.

* Temperatures...In the lower 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$
087 
WWUS41 KOKX 132016
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
416 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...Major Winter Storm Late Tonight into Tuesday Evening...

NJZ002-NYZ067-068-140430-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.W.0004.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
416 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
Tuesday night.

* Locations...Orange and Putnam counties in New York and Western 
  Passaic County in New Jersey.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions.

* Snow Accumulations...18 to 24 inches with locally higher amounts.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour early Tuesday morning
  into Tuesday afternoon.

* Timing...Late tonight into Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at 
  times. Several roads may become impassable.

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Temperatures...In the lower 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

CTZ005>010-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-078-080-176>179-140430-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwestern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
416 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

* Locations...Northeastern New Jersey, Rockland and Westchester
  New York, Southwest Connecticut and interior Southeast
  Connecticut, New York City, and Western Long Island.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions. Some freezing
  drizzle late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 24 inches.

* Ice Accumulations...A few hundredths of an inch or less.

* Snowfall Rates...2 inches to locally 3 inches per hour from 
  very early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

* Timing...Late Tonight through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at 
  times. Several roads may become impassable. Power outages 
  possible.

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

CTZ011-012-NYZ079-081-140430-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0004.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-
416 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

* Locations...Eastern Long Island, Southern Middlesex, and 
  Southern New London counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow with possible Blizzard conditions
  Tuesday morning. Snow is expected to mix with or change to sleet
  and rain Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Some freezing 
  drizzle late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening.

* Snow Accumulations...8 to 12 inches.

* Ice Accumulations...A few hundredths of an inch or less.

* Snowfall Rates...1-2 inches per hour early Tuesday morning.

* Timing...Late tonight into Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel late tonight into Tuesday morning. 
  Damaging wind gusts possible.

* Winds...Northeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Temperatures...In the lower 30s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$
220 
WWUS41 KOKX 140303
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1103 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...Major Winter Storm Late Tonight into Tuesday Evening...

CTZ005>010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179-
141115-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
1103 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY
NIGHT...

* Locations...Fairfield, New Haven, Northern Middlesex and
  Northern New London counties in Connecticut. Passaic, Hudson,
  Bergen, Essex and Union counties in New Jersey. Orange, Putnam,
  Westchester, Rockland, New York, Bronx, Richmond, Kings, Queens,
  Nassau and Western Suffolk counties in New York.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions.

* Snow Accumulations...1 to 2 feet with with locally higher
  amounts especially north and west of New York City.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour at times.

* Timing...Into Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at 
  times. Several roads may become impassable.

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Temperatures...In the 20s inland to lower 30s along the coast.

* Visibilities...Near zero at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

CTZ011-012-NYZ079-081-141115-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0004.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-
1103 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* Locations...Southern Middlesex and Southern New London counties
  in Connecticut. Eastern Suffolk county in New York.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow with near blizzard conditions Tuesday
  morning. Snow is expected to mix with or change to sleet and
  rain Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Some freezing
  drizzle late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening.

* Snow Accumulations...6 to 12 inches.

* Ice Accumulations...A few hundredths of an inch or less.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour at times.

* Timing...Into Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel late tonight and Tuesday. Damaging
  wind gusts possible.

* Winds...Northeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Temperatures...In the lower 30s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

12
722 
WWUS41 KOKX 140824
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...Major Winter Storm Into This Evening...

NYZ080-179-141630-
/O.CAN.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
Southwestern Suffolk-Southern Nassau-
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for heavy snow and sleet, which is in effect until 
midnight EDT tonight. The Blizzard Warning has been cancelled.

* Snow and Sleet Accumulations...Snow and sleet accumulation of 6
  to 10 inches.

* Locations...Southern Nassau and Southwestern Suffolk counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and sleet with near blizzard
  conditions at times this morning. 

* Snow Accumulations...6 to 10 inches.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour at times this morning.

* Timing...The precipitation is expected to mix with or change to
  sleet and rain this morning and then possibly change to all rain
  this afternoon. The change over to all rain is most likely along
  the coast. The precipitation will change back to all snow 
  before ending this evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel today. Damaging wind gusts possible.
late tonight and Tuesday
* Winds...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph,
  becoming northwest in the afternoon. Isolated gusts of 55 to 60
  mph are possible.

* Temperatures...In the lower 30s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

CTZ005>010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-176>178-141630-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* Locations...New York City, Northeast New Jersey, the Lower
  Hudson Valley, Southwestern and interior Southeastern
  Connecticut, and Northern Nassau and Northwestern Suffolk
  Counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions.

* Snow and Sleet Accumulations...1 to 2 feet across interior
  areas. 8 to 16 inches of snow and sleet are expected across New
  York City, Northwestern Long Island and Coastal Southwestern 
  Connecticut. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially 
  over areas north and west of New York City.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour at times.

* Timing...The snow may mix with sleet at times across
  Northwestern Long Island and portions of the New York City
  metropolitan area later this morning into this afternoon. The 
  precipitation will change back to all snow before ending this 
  evening.


* Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at 
  times. Several roads may become impassable.

* Winds...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph,
  becoming northwest in the afternoon. Isolated gusts of 55 to 60
  mph are possible near the immediate coast.

* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.

* Visibilities...Near zero at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

CTZ011-012-NYZ079-081-141630-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* Locations...Southern Middlesex and Southern New London 
  counties in Connecticut. Eastern Suffolk county in New York.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow with near blizzard conditions this
  morning. 

* Snow Accumulations...4 to 12 inches.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour at times.

* Timing...Snow is expected to mix with or change to sleet and
  rain from this morning into this afternoon. The precipitation is
  expected to change back to all snow before ending this evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel today . Damaging wind gusts 
  possible.

* Winds...Northeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. Isolated
  gusts to 60 mph are possible.

* Temperatures...In the lower 30s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

Maloit
408 
WWUS41 KOKX 140825 CCA
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
425 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...Major Winter Storm Into This Evening...

NYZ080-179-142030-
/O.CAN.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.COR.KOKX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
Southwestern Suffolk-Southern Nassau-
425 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for heavy snow and sleet, which is in effect until 
midnight EDT tonight. The Blizzard Warning has been cancelled.

* Snow and Sleet Accumulations...Snow and sleet accumulation of 6
  to 10 inches.

* Locations...Southern Nassau and Southwestern Suffolk counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and sleet, with near blizzard
  conditions at times this morning. 

* Snow Accumulations...6 to 10 inches.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour at times this morning.

* Timing...The precipitation is expected to mix with or change to
  sleet and rain this morning and then possibly change to all rain
  this afternoon. The change over to all rain is most likely along
  the coast. The precipitation will change back to all snow 
  before ending this evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel today. Damaging wind gusts possible.
late tonight and Tuesday
* Winds...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph,
  becoming northwest in the afternoon. Isolated gusts of 55 to 60
  mph are possible.

* Temperatures...In the lower 30s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

CTZ005>010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-176>178-142030-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
425 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* Locations...New York City, Northeast New Jersey, the Lower
  Hudson Valley, Southwestern and interior Southeastern
  Connecticut, and Northern Nassau and Northwestern Suffolk
  Counties.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions.

* Snow and Sleet Accumulations...1 to 2 feet across interior
  areas. 8 to 16 inches of snow and sleet are expected across New
  York City, Northwestern Long Island and Coastal Southwestern 
  Connecticut. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially 
  over areas north and west of New York City.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour at times.

* Timing...The snow may mix with sleet at times across
  Northwestern Long Island and portions of the New York City
  metropolitan area later this morning into this afternoon. The 
  precipitation will change back to all snow before ending this 
  evening.


* Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at 
  times. Several roads may become impassable.

* Winds...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph,
  becoming northwest in the afternoon. Isolated gusts of 55 to 60
  mph are possible near the immediate coast.

* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.

* Visibilities...Near zero at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

CTZ011-012-NYZ079-081-142030-
/O.COR.KOKX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-
425 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* Locations...Southern Middlesex and Southern New London 
  counties in Connecticut. Eastern Suffolk county in New York.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and sleet, with near blizzard
  conditions at times this morning.

* Snow Accumulations...4 to 12 inches.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour at times.

* Timing...Snow is expected to mix with or change to sleet and
  rain from this morning into this afternoon. The precipitation is
  expected to change back to all snow before ending this evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel today . Damaging wind gusts 
  possible.

* Winds...Northeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. Isolated
  gusts to 60 mph are possible.

* Temperatures...In the lower 30s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

Maloit
458 
WWUS41 KOKX 141159
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
759 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...Major Winter Storm for Interior Portions of the Tri-State into
This Evening...

CTZ007>010-NJZ104-106-108-NYZ071-142000-
/O.CAN.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0005.170314T1159Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-
759 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for heavy snow and sleet, which is in effect until 
midnight EDT tonight. The Blizzard Warning has been cancelled.

* Locations...Interior southeastern and coastal southwestern 
Connecticut, eastern portions of northeastern New Jersey, and 
southern Westchester County.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Sleet, with near blizzard
  conditions, mainly this morning.

* Snow and Sleet Accumulations...4 to 14 inches of snow and sleet
  are expected, with highest amounts away from the coast. 

* Snowfall Rates...1 to 2 inches per hour at times.

* Timing...The snow will mix with and possibly change to sleet
  this morning. Rain may mix in at times closer to the coast. The
  precipitation will change back to all snow before ending this 
  evening.

* Impacts...Heavy Snow and sleet, with near blizzard conditions at
  times this morning. 

* Winds...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph,
  becoming northwest in the afternoon. Isolated gusts of 55 to 60
  mph are possible.

* Temperatures...Around 30.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

NJZ006-NYZ072>075-176-177-142000-
/O.CAN.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0010.170314T1159Z-170315T0000Z/
Hudson-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
759 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for snow and sleet, which is in effect until 8 PM EDT 
this evening. The Blizzard Warning has been cancelled.

* Locations...New York City and Hudson and Northern Nassau  
  Counties.

* Hazard Types...Snow and Sleet.

* Accumulations...Snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour at times.

* Timing...The snow will change to sleet, then rain by midday. 
  The precipitation will change back to all snow before ending 
  this evening.

* Impacts...Snow and sleet, with hazardous conditions at times 
  this morning. 

* Winds...North 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow...sleet...or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while
driving.

&&

$$

NYZ078-178-141300-
/O.CAN.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
Northwestern Suffolk-Southern Queens-
759 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Upton has cancelled the Blizzard
Warning.

Precipitation has changed to all rain, therefore the warning has
been cancelled.

$$

CTZ011-012-142000-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0010.170314T1159Z-170315T0000Z/
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
759 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for snow and sleet, which is in effect until 8 PM EDT 
this evening. The Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled.

* Locations...Southern Middlesex and Southern New London counties
  in Connecticut.

* Hazard Types...Snow and sleet.

* Snow Accumulations...3 to 7 inches.

* Snowfall Rates...1 to 2 inches per hour at times.

* * Timing...The snow will change to sleet, then rain by midday. 
  The precipitation will change back to all snow before ending 
  this evening.

* Impacts...Snow and sleet, with hazardous conditions at times
  this morning. 

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow...sleet...or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while
driving.

&&

$$

NYZ079>081-179-141300-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Southern Nassau-
759 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Upton has cancelled the Winter
Storm Warning.

The precipitation has changed to rain, therefore the winter storm
warning has been cancelled.

$$

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-142000-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
759 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* Locations...Interior portions of Northeast New Jersey, the Lower
  Hudson Valley, and Southwestern Connecticut.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions.

* Snow and Sleet Accumulations...1 to 2 feet with locally higher
  amounts are possible.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour at times.

* Timing...The snow may mix with sleet at times later this morning
  into this afternoon. The precipitation will change back to all 
  snow before ending this evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at 
  times. Several roads may become impassable.

* Winds...North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Temperatures...In the mid 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

Maloit

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Mar 12, 1:31 PM EDT, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 12, 1:31 PM EDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
131 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure builds in through tonight and passes over
the area Monday. A strong coastal storm will impact the area
with heavy snow and wind Monday night into Tuesday night...with
lingering effects through Wednesday. High pressure builds in
for Thursday and Friday. Another low pressure system tracks
toward the area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Gusty NW flow will continue today as the area remains under a
relatively tight pressure gradient on the SW-most flank of
strong low pressure east of Labrador. Another Arctic cold front
will approach from the north, while a very fast moving shortwave
approaches from the Lake Superior. This combo should result in
skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy by afternoon. Flurries
are possible across NYC metro and Long Island mid to late
afternoon. Temps will be a couple of degrees warmer than those
of yesterday, with highs in the upper 20s/lower 30s, except mid
20s in the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Skies will clear tonight as high pressure builds in. Skies should be
mostly clear for most of the night, with some mid level clouds
moving in late NW of NYC, spilling over an approaching flat upper
ridge. This plus diminishing winds and relatively fresh snow pack
should allow temps to drop quite a bit across the interior, with
single digits there and in the Long Island Pine Barrens. Temps in
NYC will drop to near 20 once again due to urban heat island effect,
with teens just outside the city, across most of Long Island, and
along the immediate CT coastline. Expect partly to mostly cloudy
skies especially from NYC north/west Mon morning as the flow across
the eastern two thirds of the lower 48s begins to amplify, with the
upper ridge briefly becoming dominant over the area. High temps
should be a little warmer once again, with lower/mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Potential for a widespread 1 ft+ snowfall Monday Night into
 Tuesday evening...combined with strong winds is increasing***

Models continue to converge on details of a strong coastal storm
that will impact the region Monday Night into Tue Night...with
lingering effects into Wednesday. This is in response to PAC energy
coming into the NW US early this morning...diving into the southern
U.S and phasing with subtropical energy Mon Night. This phased
energy then tracks up the coast around digging northern stream
energy/developing Great Lakes upper low on Tuesday...and then
eventually phases with the northern stream energy as a closed low
over NE US Tue Night/Wed. With good operational/ensemble agreement
and convergence on this scenario...confidence is increasing on a
high impact snow/wind event fro the tri-state region.

At the surface...the above scenario will allow for low pressure to
develop across the Gulf/SE US coast Monday...then intensify as
it tracks N towards the Carolina coast by Mon evening...then NE
between Montauk point and 40/70 lat/lon benchmark Tue...and near
Cape Cod by Tue evening as a mid 980 mb low. Model
spread...particularly for coastline hugging tracks has decreased
quite a bit compared to 24 hrs ago...but still subtle
difference in how close to Montauk Point low pressure tracks.
00z EPS/GEFS means keeps track closer to 40/70 benchmark which
would keeps the entire region as all snow...but based on
operations/ensemble spread the potential for some mixing across
far E LI/SE CT is in play.

In terms of heavy snowfall: Coupled jet structure...approaching mid
level shortwave energy...and strong frontogenetic
forcing...interacting with inflow of gulf/sub-tropical moisture
points towards strong banding and intense snowfall rates late Monday
Night through Tuesday afternoon for much of the region. The one
noticeable trend is that the storm track is slightly faster compared
to 24 hrs ago. With that said...ensemble mean qpf is around 1 to 1
1/2 inches...with some clustering of spread about 1/4 inch on either
side of this range. This is in line with operational
models...with 00z NAM/ECMWF/SBU WRF on higher end of range and
00z gfs on lower end of this range.

In terms on snow banding...SPC SREF is signaling potential for
snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour...which seems quite
reasonable based on forcing/moisture. The 3km experimental
NAM...which is on the western fringe of track guidance...is
showing potential for snowfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour.
With subtle e/w correction in storm track still
likely...confidence in location of heaviest/most persistent
banding is low to moderate at this time. If ensemble mean track
holds...far NW portions of the region may fall on the edge or
outside of heaviest snow banding.

Based on competing factors and current uncertainty...still thinking
12 to 18 inches of snowfall is a solid most likely solution for
much of the region...with locally up to 2 ft possible in
heaviest and longest duration banding. Lower amounts possible
across NW hills if eastern edge of guidance envelope
verifies...while a shift towards western members would introduce
mixing potential for far E/LI/Se CT and lower amounts. Expect
some more clarity on this in the next 24 hrs.

In terms of strong winds: ECMWF/GFS showing potential for
40-45kt winds at 950 HPA as far west as metro NJ Tue
morning/afternoon. As such have expanded blizzard watch westward
into metro Northeastern NJ with potential for 6hr period of
gusts to 40 mph. Winds fields strengthen up to 50-60 kt at 950
HPA for eastern LI and far SE CT at the same time...where
potential exists for high wind gusts of 50-60 mph. This mention
of potentially damaging wind gusts has been included in BSW.

Heavy snow and strongest winds should begin to wind down from sw to
ne late Tue/Tue evening as low pressure pulls east of New England.
Snow showers and gusty NW winds could lingers through Wednesday as
the phased upper low moves through.

High pressure builds Thursday and Friday, with unseasonably cold
air in place.

Next trough and sfc low approaches from the west, with next
precip chance Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will build towards the region tonight, and over
the area on Monday.

There will be a chance for a few flurries this afternoon.
Ceilings and visibility are still expected to remain
unrestricted however, with clouds in the 3500-4000 ft range.

VFR tonight and Monday.

Northwest winds will continue to gust up to 25 kt into the early
evening. Speeds will significantly decrease after 00-02Z, with
light winds thereafter.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Rest of Monday...VFR lowering to VLIFR in snow after 6Z.
.Tuesday...Blizzard conditions possible.
.Tuesday Night...Light snow possible with MVFR or lower at
times. Northwest winds 25 to 35 kt.
.Wednesday...Northwest winds 25 to 35 kt. Chance MVFR with
flurries, otherwise mainly VFR.
.Thursday...VFR with northwest flow.
.Friday...VFR with light northwest flow.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA for all waters today as the area remains under a relatively
tight pressure gradient on the SW-most flank of song low pressure
east of Labrador. Conditions should subside by early evening for the
Harbor/W Sound/South Shore bays, then gradually abate tonight on the
ocean/E Sound/E bays. A brief quiet period likely on Monday as high
pressure builds across.

With the approach of a deepening coastal storm Monday night winds
and seas will be increasing...with gale conditions likely developing
on the ocean after midnight and by daybreak across the nearshore
waters. Storm conditions are likely on the ocean waters Tuesday
morning through afternoon...with moderate potential for eastern
nearshore waters. Seas on the ocean could build to 15 to 20
kt...with 4 to 8 ft on Li sound. Winds expected to fall to small
craft levels fairly quickly Tue eve as low pressure tracks away from
the forecast waters. Gale and Storms watches have been issued
for late Mon night into Tue night.

With a strong and gusty northwest flow behind the storm Wednesday
small craft conditions will be likely on the ocean with the
potential of small craft gusts across the remainder of the forecast
waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A strong coastal storm will bring potential for 1 to 2 inches of
liquid equivalent precipitation late Monday night into Tuesday
night with most or all of the precipitation in the form of snow.
No hydrologic problems are anticipated.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Model spread has decreased a bit...but still exists in surge
guidance for Tuesday based on decreased model spread in low
pressure track.

Main concern is for the Tue late morning/early aft high tide
cycle coming off a full moon today. Generally 1 1/2 to 2 ft of
surge are needed for minor coastal flooding and around 3 ft for
moderate. Current ensemble means track low pressure southeast of
LI Tue/Tue night...keeping winds veered to the NE/N and likely
limiting coastal flood impacts to minor to locally moderate. The
potential is low for low pressure to track closer to the coast
and to cause more widespread moderate coastal impacts.

The elevated water levels and a longshore sweep of 6 to 10 ft surf
during the Tuesday morning high tide cycle is expected to result in
beach erosion. Duration of highest longshore and onshore wave energy
looks to be relatively short lived (late Monday Night into Tuesday
afternoon) due to quick movement of the storm.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temperatures for Today, March 12

Location.......Record Low/Year Set /
Central Park..........8/1888
LaGuardia.............15/1984
J F Kennedy...........12/1984
Newark................13/1934
Bridgeport............11/1984
Islip.................14/1984

Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Today, March 12

Location.......Record Low Max/Year Set
Central Park..........26/1900
LaGuardia.............28/1984
J F Kennedy...........29/1984
Newark................30/1984
Bridgeport............27/1984
Islip.................25/1984

Record low temperatures for Monday, March 13

Location.......Record Low/Year Set
Central Park..........6/1888
LaGuardia.............19/2014*
J F Kennedy...........19/2014
Newark................18/1948
Bridgeport............16/1998
Islip.................17/1998

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Blizzard Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening
     for CTZ007>012.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
     evening for CTZ005-006.
NY...Blizzard Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening
     for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
     evening for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Blizzard Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening
     for NJZ006-104-106-108.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
     evening for NJZ002-004-103-105-107.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night
     for ANZ335-338-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335-
     338-345.
     Storm Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night
     for ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ330-340-353-
     355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Goodman/NV
NEAR TERM...Goodman/PW
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...12
MARINE...Goodman/NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 12, 4:29 AM EDT, 11 hours 43 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
429 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-130830-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
429 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Blizzard Watch.

Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding likely during the times
of high tide Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-130830-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
429 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ007-008-NJZ104-130830-
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Eastern Bergen-
429 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
northeast New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Blizzard Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ335-338-345-130830-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
429 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-340-350-353-355-130830-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
429 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

The office that day

Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 12, 4:23 PM EDTCoastal Flood WatchOKXGreater Bridgeport Planning Region16 hr
Mar 12, 3:53 AM EDTGale WatchOKX12 hr
Mar 12, 3:53 AM EDTStorm WatchOKX12 hr
Mar 12, 4:15 PM EDTGale WarningOKX24 hr
Mar 12, 4:15 PM EDTStorm WarningOKX48 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in New York, 2017Winter Storm Warnings in Connecticut, 2017Winter Storm Warnings in New Jersey, 2017Every winter storm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.