Alert archive / New York / Wind Advisories in 2017

Wind Advisory 12, NWS New York, NY

November 18, 20174 counties in Connecticut; 8 counties in New York; Hudson County, New Jersey

NWS New York, NY issued this wind advisory at Nov 18, 2017, 6:06 PM EST for 4 counties in Connecticut; 8 counties in New York; Hudson County, New Jersey. It took effect at Nov 19, 2017, 12:00 AM EST. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 18, 2017, 6:06 PM EST (23:06 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 19, 2017, 12:00 AM EST
Expired
Nov 19, 2017, 6:00 PM EST
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS New York, NY

Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Hudson County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 51 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-11-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-11-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 150 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3045 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
150 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
217 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

484 
WWUS71 KOKX 182306
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
606 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

CTZ011-012-NYZ078>081-190930-
/O.CAN.KOKX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-171119T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0003.171119T0500Z-171119T1700Z/
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
606 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to noon EST
Sunday.

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts 55 to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Late tonight into Sunday morning. Strongest winds late
  tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Winds this strong
can also make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

CTZ009-010-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176>179-190930-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-171119T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0012.171119T0500Z-171119T2300Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
606 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Wind Advisory,
which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Sunday.

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph, 
  becoming west to northwest on Sunday.

* TIMING...Late tonight into Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

&&

$$

CTZ007-008-190930-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.171119T0500Z-171119T2300Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
606 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph, 
  becoming west to northwest on Sunday.

* TIMING...Late tonight into Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>070-190930-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.171119T1200Z-171119T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
606 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Daytime hours on Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph...
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph...are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile
vehicles. Use extra caution.

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
594 
WWUS71 KOKX 190832
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
332 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

CTZ011-012-NYZ078>081-191645-
/O.CAN.KOKX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-171119T1700Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-171119T2300Z/
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
332 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Wind Advisory,
which is in effect until 6 PM EST this evening. 

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Through this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph...
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph...are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile
vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

CTZ009-010-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176>179-191645-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-171119T2300Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
332 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Through this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

&&

$$

CTZ007-008-191645-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-171119T2300Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
332 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Through this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>070-191645-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.171119T1200Z-171119T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
332 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Through this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph...
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph...are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile
vehicles. Use extra caution.

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

&&

$$
606 
WWUS71 KOKX 191137
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
637 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-192145-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-171119T2300Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
637 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Through this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph...
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph...are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile
vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

CTZ007-008-192145-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-171119T2300Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
637 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Through this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>070-192145-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.171119T1200Z-171119T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
637 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Through this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph...
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph...are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile
vehicles. Use extra caution.

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

&&

$$
387 
WWUS71 KOKX 192057
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-192300-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-171119T2300Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
357 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph...
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph...are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile
vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>070-192300-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-171119T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-
Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
357 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph...
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph...are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile
vehicles. Use extra caution.

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

&&

$$
224 
WWUS71 KOKX 192324
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
624 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-200030-
/O.EXP.KOKX.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-171119T2300Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
624 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Gusty winds will continue tonight, however sustained winds in
excess of 31 mph or gusts of 46 to 57 mph are no longer expected.

$$

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>070-200030-
/O.EXP.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-171119T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-
Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
624 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Gusty winds will continue tonight, however sustained winds in
excess of 31 mph or gusts of 46 to 57 mph are no longer expected.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Nov 18, 4:09 PM EST, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 18, 4:09 PM EST, 1 hour 57 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
409 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
As developing low pressure approaches from the west, its
associated warm front will lift to the north this evening, and
then an associated strong cold front will move across Sunday
morning as the strong low passes to the north. High pressure
will pass to the south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold
front on Wednesday. High pressure will build late week. Low
pressure will then move across on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Rain with the warm front has spread into all but eastern Long
Island and SE CT. S winds along the coast are gradually
increasing, and think the strongest S-SW winds will occur after
warm fropa overnight as boundary layer temps rise and low level
mixing improves. Models continue to indicate H9 winds in the
50-60 kt range, with a well-mixed boundary layer and also bands
of moderate to locally heavy showers capable of transporting
most of this momentum to the surface. High wind warnings issued
for Suffolk and coastal SE CT as a result, and wind advisories
expanded westward for tonight to include all coastal sections
including NYC. Strongest winds should occur overnight and
especially near/across the forks of Long Island, though NAM
timing is a little sooner and its LLJ a little stronger than
that of the global models (up to 70 kt).

Instability with bands of showers overnight will be limited to
the low to mid levels, with an H6 inversion limiting
deeper/greater instability that would have otherwise led
to thunder.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be moving across in two shots, the first marking
arrival of a dry slot and departure of the S-SW low level jet,
the second marking the arrival of strong W-NW winds after
passage of a potent, negatively-tilted shortwave trough along.
There could be a brief lull in winds between these two features,
but then W-NW winds likely to gust just over 45 mph with
passage of the second trough (with NAM indicating narrow band of
showers with the front), and then during the late morning and
afternoon via a tight pressure gradient and H8 winds up to 40-45
kt. Stronger winds should hang on a few hrs longer into the
daytime than model forecasts indicate, and NAM also indicates
stronger H8 winds arriving in the late afternoon after another
mid level shortwave passage; think winds will however start to
gradually diminish by that point, so while gusty NW winds will
continue into Sunday night, have not extended the advisory into
Sunday night.

After morning highs in the 50s, temps should gradually fall in
the afternoon, back into the 40s by late afternoon, then into
the 20s and 30s tonight. A few lake effect snow showers may
make it into the area late Sunday night especially just NW of
NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aloft, models agree early in the period as initial shortwave passes
east/northeast. Downstream shortwave will then make fast eastward
progress. Here is where some differences arise. Northern stream
potent shortwave tracks across the Great Lakes region as it lifts
northeast, with most of the energy and associated dynamics lifting
well to our north Wednesday. Southern stream trough lags a bit as it
moves across the Gulf states. By late Wednesday into Thursday,
operational GFS seems to be a deep/strong outlier with regard to
closed low around the Gulf states as the trough makes eastward
progress.

This upper trough weakens over the western Atlantic Thursday, with
next shortwave in the northern stream moving eastward toward the
northeast by next weekend.

At the sfc, high pressure passes to the south Monday and Tuesday.
Gusty NW flow will back around the SW as the high tracks east.

Thereafter, a cold front passes Wednesday. This front is associated
with northern stream shortwave. This looks like the best chance for
measurable precipitation, late Tuesday night into Wednesday, chance
pops.

Waves of low pressure likely develop along the front well to our
south in the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. Again, GFS appears
to be an outlier with wave of low pressure developing and passing
close enough for measurable precip Thursday. Otherwise, model
consensus suggest any precip remains to our southeast as ridge
builds to the NW and waves remain far enough to the southeast.
Will maintain a dry forecast as a result, leaning toward consensus.
However, this will need to be watched.

Dry through Friday before the next chance for precip arrives with
the shortwave, clipper low Saturday.

As for temperatures Monday-Saturday, followed a model/mos blend.
Below normal temperatures Monday will warm to slightly above normal
Tuesday as WAA occurs behind the high. Behind a cold front
Wednesday, normal temps likely fall to below normal Thursday and
Friday before rebounding yet again in WAA ahead of the clipper low
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A low pressure system approaches with its warm front moving
north across the region this evening, which will be followed by
a strong cold front moving through Sunday morning.

VFR until this evening with light rain showers, but some terminals
will see some temporary MVFR/IFR conditions with relatively heavier
rainfall. Then mainly MVFR can be expected tonight with some
localized IFR. Conditions gradually improve Sunday with rain showers
tapering off west to east Sunday morning with VFR returning in the
afternoon as dry conditions return.

Winds will be the main issue. S-SW flow 10-15KT gusting to near 20-
25 KT this afternoon will increase tonight to 20-25KT, gusts 30-
40KT. For eastern terminals, gusts expected to exceed 40KT for some
time late tonight into Sunday morning, at times reaching 50KT. This
will be where terminals are under the low level jet, presenting LLWS
from SW flow of 50KT at 2kft. Expecting widespread gusts to near
35KT to at times near 40KT during the day Sunday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday...VFR with NW winds G30-40KT through the rest of the
afternoon. Gusts diminish to 25-30KT Sunday evening.
.Monday...VFR. W-NW winds G20-30KT. Gusts diminish gradually at
night.
.Tuesday...Mainly VFR. MVFR possible late Tuesday night with
showers. SW winds G15-25KT.
.Wednesday...MVFR possible with showers during the day. VFR at
night. W-NW winds G15-20KT.
.Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW winds will increase to gale force by evening, then a strong
low level jet with only a weak inversion at best should allow
storm force gusts to occur on the eastern ocean/sound/bays,
where a storm warning has been issued. Farther west, winds
should still gust to 35-45 kt, and a gale warning remains in
effect.

After a cold frontal passage Sunday morning, W-NW winds should
gust to 40-45 kt through the day, and fall below gale force on
the non-ocean waters after midnight.

Gusty NW/W flow Monday will back around the SW Monday night and
Tuesday as high pressure passes to our south, then east. These
SW winds eventually shift around the N/NW behind a cold front
Wednesday. Northerly winds persist Wednesday night and Thursday.

As for sea forecasts, rough conditions persist in the Monday and
Tuesday time frame due to strong winds/tight pressure gradient.
Nearshore Wave Prediction System looked quite reasonable and was
followed. For Wednesday and Thursday, had to knock down sea
forecasts from Wave Watch III as GFS appears to be an outlier with
regard to a wave of low pressure that approaches the waters from the
south/southeast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rain with a warm frontal passage tonight, and then with bands of
moderate to locally heavy showers with a strong cold frontal
passage late tonight into Sunday morning, should cause no more
than local nuisance impacts. Total rainfall is expected to
range between 1/2 to 1 inch, highest NW of NYC.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Storm surge guidance for Sunday morning high tide may to be on
the low side given the strength of southerly winds expected Sat
night into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. But typically,
S/SW winds are not conducive to building surge.

There is a low probability of a surge of 1-2 ft Sunday morning.
If these surge levels develop, minor coastal impacts in a
strong SW/W flow would be felt mainly across eastern portions of
the Great South Bay into Moriches Bay. Elsewhere any impacts
would be brief and localized. Statement issued to address this
potential.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...High Wind Warning until noon EST Sunday for CTZ011-012.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for CTZ005-006.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for CTZ009-010.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     CTZ007-008.
NY...High Wind Warning until noon EST Sunday for NYZ078>081.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for NYZ067>070.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for NYZ071>075-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for NJZ002-004-
     103>108.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for NJZ006.
MARINE...Storm Warning until noon EST Sunday for ANZ330-340-345-350-353.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ335-338.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ355.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Goodman/PW
NEAR TERM...Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Goodman/PW
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 18, 3:54 PM EST, 2 hours 12 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
354 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>070-191700-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
354 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ009-010-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176>179-191700-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
354 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ007-008-191700-
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
354 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ011-012-NYZ078>081-191700-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
354 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-340-345-191700-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
354 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ335-338-191700-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
354 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ355-191700-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
354 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ350-353-191700-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
354 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
   Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

The office that day

Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 18, 3:39 AM ESTWind AdvisoryOKXGreater Bridgeport Planning Region, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region38 hr
Nov 18, 3:36 PM ESTHigh Wind WarningOKXLower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region3 hr
Nov 18, 6:06 PM ESTHigh Wind WarningOKXLower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region9 hr
Nov 18, 3:24 PM ESTCoastal Flood StatementOKXNassau, Queens, Suffolk21 hr
Nov 18, 3:36 PM ESTStorm WarningOKX19 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in New York, 2017Wind Advisories in Connecticut, 2017Wind Advisories in New Jersey, 2017Every wind advisory in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.