Storm Warning 4, NWS New York, NY

164 
WHUS71 KOKX 130830
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 AM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...

ANZ338-345-132100-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170214T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.LO.Y.0001.170213T1900Z-170214T0000Z/
NEW YORK HARBOR-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
330 AM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A LOW WATER
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. 

* WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2 FT BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS AFTERNOONS LOW
  TIDE.

* IMPACTS...MAY CAUSE AN IMPACT TO SAFE MARINE NAVIGATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-340-132100-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170214T0500Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
330 AM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
  KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET ON LONG ISLAND SOUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ355-132100-
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170213T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.LO.Y.0001.170213T1900Z-170214T0000Z/
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
330 AM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A LOW WATER
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  50 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

* WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2 FT BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS AFTERNOONS LOW
  TIDE.

* IMPACTS...MAY CAUSE AN IMPACT TO SAFE MARINE NAVIGATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 48 TO
63 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.
COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND
DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-132100-
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170213T2300Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
330 AM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  50 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 48 TO
63 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.
COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND
DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

805 
WHUS71 KOKX 132104
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 PM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...

ANZ338-345-140500-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170214T0500Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.LO.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-170214T0000Z/
NEW YORK HARBOR-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
404 PM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT.

* WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2 FT BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS AFTERNOONS 
  LOW TIDE.

* IMPACTS...MAY CAUSE AN IMPACT TO SAFE MARINE NAVIGATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-340-140500-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170214T0500Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
404 PM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ355-140000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170213T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.LO.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-170214T0000Z/
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
404 PM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  50 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.

* WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2 FT BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS AFTERNOONS 
  LOW TIDE.

* IMPACTS...MAY CAUSE AN IMPACT TO SAFE MARINE NAVIGATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 48 TO
63 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.
COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND
DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-132300-
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170213T2300Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
404 PM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  50 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 48 TO
63 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.
COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND
DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

458 
WHUS71 KOKX 132251
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
551 PM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...

ANZ355-140500-
/O.EXP.KOKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170213T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.LO.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-170214T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.GL.W.0009.170213T2300Z-170214T0500Z/
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
551 PM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
  KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.

* WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2 FT BELOW NORMAL.

* IMPACTS...LOW WATER MAY CAUSE AN IMPACT TO SAFE MARINE 
NAVIGATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-140500-
/O.EXP.KOKX.SR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170213T2300Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.GL.W.0009.170213T2300Z-170214T0500Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
551 PM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ338-345-140500-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170214T0500Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.LO.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-170214T0000Z/
NEW YORK HARBOR-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
551 PM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.

* WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2 FT BELOW NORMAL.

* IMPACTS...LOW WATER MAY CAUSE AN IMPACT TO SAFE MARINE 
NAVIGATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-340-140500-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170214T0500Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
551 PM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
416 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks to the southeast of Long Island this
evening, then to the east of Cape Cod as it rapidly deepens
tonight. A trough of low pressure pushes through the area Monday
as the powerful low slowly moves east through the Canadian
Maritimes, followed by weak high pressure building in Monday
night. High pressure briefly builds across the area on Tuesday.
Low pressure then passes to the north on Wednesday, sending a
cold front across the region. High pressure returns for the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Strong upper low over the Eastern Great Lakes will swing towards
the region this evening..and then across the region tonight. In
response...strong pressure falls being noted se of LI late
today...with Delmarva low pressure expected to deepen as it
tracks to the se of LI this evening. This low will explosively
deepen overnight to the east of New England.

Main lift/qpf axis is sliding east of LI/SE CT late this
afternoon...bringing steady snow/sleet across SE CT and
rain/sleet across Eastern LI to and end shortly. In its
wake...mid-level drying and 750-850 hpa warm nose will result
mainly in drizzle into this evening. Along the city/coast this
will mainly be in the form of rain through this evening as
surface temps have warmed above freezing in the easterly flow.
Across the interior of NE NJ/Lower Hudson Valley/Southern
CT...surface temps will be slow to rise above freezing through
the evening with cold air damming...so the threat will be for a
few hundredths of an inch of additional ice. With any spotty
heavier precip...mainly across Southern CT...sleet and snow may
briefly mix in.

As low pressure strengthens and tracks east of the area this
evening...a drying NW flow should end drizzle for most of the
region from W to E.

Then after midnight...scattered snow showers likely areawide
as upper low approaches and crosses the region. Most of the
region should not see much in the way of accumulation...but across
Southern CT and possibly Eastern LI...could even see a few
light to moderate snow bands bringing some light accumulation.
This activity should end by around daybreak.

Bigger story late tonight will be increasing NW winds after
midnight...with winds increasing to 20 to 35 mph with gusts 45
to 55 mph late in response to strong pressure
gradient...caa...and pressure rises. Wind Advisory has been
issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The main story in the short term is the winds.

950 hPa winds are progged to 40-45 kt across most of the region
Monday, with lapse rates approaching dry adiabatic, especially near
the coast. MOS has been consistently showing sustained winds around
30 kt over the area as well. As a result, have issued a wind
advisory for the entire CWA, from 7z to 23z Monday, for gusty NW
winds of 20-35mph with gusts of 45 to 55mph.

Right now, it appears mixing will be limited to 900-875 hPa Monday,
but if deeper mixing can be achieved, then could tap into 60 kt 850
hPa jet. If this happens then isolated 50 kt could occur, with the
best chance near the immediate Atlantic Coast and over higher
elevations across interior portions of the CWA. Winds diminish
Monday night from west to east as the pressure gradient relaxes over
the area.

Otherwise, it appears that northern stream ridging building in the
wake of a departing cutoff low should keep things dry Monday and
Monday night, with decreasing cloud cover.

Highs Monday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM 2-
meter temperatures and a mix down from 900-875 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees below normal.

For lows Monday night  a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance and NAM 2-
meter temperatures was used, with values a few degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The mean upper trough resides across eastern North America for
much of the week before an upper level ridge builds in for next
weekend.

At the onset of the period, another shortwave trough tracks SE
from the Great Lakes on Tuesday, again closing off as it heads
into the Northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. The southern
branch closed low over the southern High Plains continues to
get sheared out out between the two streams across the
southeast, with secondary low development well offshore on
Wednesday. Unlike 2 days ago, when the ECMWF had the two
streams phase with a strong coastal low impacting the area for
the mid week, the global models keep the two streams unphased,
with the low far enough offshore to spare the region significant
precipitation. The GFS and ECMWF are similar with secondary
development off the New England coast Wednesday night, far too
late to have a significant impact other than gusty NW winds on
the backside. The GGEM is slightly more amplified and slower,
but still southeast of the benchmark location. Still plan to
maintain low chances of precipitation Wednesday with the upper
trough moving across the area and a possible inverted trough
extending back across the area from the offshore low.

High pressure follows for the end of the week with temperatures
generally at or just below normal. Temperatures then moderate
over the weekend with building heights aloft and a possible
warm frontal passage on Saturday. Right now, this period looks
to be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A coastal low develops south of Long Island by late this afternoon,
then intensifies as it tracks to the south of Long Island this
evening, then continues to deepen is it tracks to the Canadian
Maritimes by Monday afternoon.

City/Long Island Terminals had gone over to plain rain/drizzle with
the remainder of the terminals expected to change over through 00z.
However, some terminals may change back to snow briefly before
ending mainly late this evening, and into the overnight hours at
KGON.

Conditions will improve to MVFR this evening, then to VFR overnight,
except for maybe at KGON where snow could linger into the overnight
hours.

E winds around 10 kt, could become light and variable for a few
hours early this evening before switching to the WNW-NW at 10-15kt
around 3-4z, with maybe some infrequent gusts to around 20 kt
starting after midnight. The winds then become NW throughout with
G25-40KT late, mainly after 9z.

For the remainder of the terminals who have not changed to rain, the
following accumulations are expected:

1 to 2 inches of snow/sleet and glaze of ice for KBDR/KHPN/KGON

4 to 6 inches of snow/sleet with up to a tenth of an inch of ice
for KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Monday afternoon/night...VFR. NW wind 25-35 G35-45KT, gradually
diminishing Monday night.
.Tuesday...VFR.
.Tuesday night-Wednesday...Chance for MVFR or lower in rain/snow.
.Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. W-NW winds G15-25KT possible.
.Friday...VFR. NW-W flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal SCA E/NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas on the ocean through
the evening...with occasional sca gusts possible on LI
sound/eastern bays into early eve...ahead of approaching low
pressure.

There will be a brief lull in conditions as the low passes this
evening. Then as the low explosively deepens late
tonight...gusts to storm force are expected to develop on the
coastal ocean waters late tonight Monday, with gusts to gale
force on the non- ocean waters. Gusts to Gale force should
continue on all waters through Monday evening, so have extended
the Gale Warning on the coastal ocean waters through 5Z Tuesday.
Small Craft conditions are then likely late Monday night on all
waters. These winds will build seas to 6 to 11 feet on the
coastal ocean waters and to 3 to 7 feet on Long Island Sound for
Monday.

Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for Tuesday into Tuesday night
with high pressure passing across the waters. Marginal SCA
conditions are possible on ocean Wednesday ahead of a cold
front in the SW flow. Behind the cold front Wednesday night into
Thursday, SCA conditions return across all waters in a gusty NW
flow. High pressure builds back across the waters on Friday
with diminishing winds and seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the week.

There is a low probability of significant precipitation during the
middle of the week as a coastal low passes offshore.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Low pressure tracks Se of the area this evening and then
rapidly deepens off New England coast tonight into Monday. 1 1/2
to 2 ft of surge are needed to reach minor coastal flood
thresholds during the evening high tides. Easterly flow will
weaken this evening...before becoming a NW gale late tonight.

Water levels may briefly touch minor thresholds for the
southern bays of Nassau County for late this evening high tide
cycle due to tidal piling...with the remainder of the region
staying below minor thresholds as winds will be
weakening/shifting NW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for CTZ005>012.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     CTZ009>012.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for CTZ005>008.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ067>070.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ071-
     073.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NJZ002-103.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NJZ004-
     104>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.
     Storm Warning until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE/Maloit
MARINE...Maloit/NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-132045-
WESTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
332 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ009>012-NJZ004-104>108-NYZ071-073-132045-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-
332 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ006-NYZ072-074-075-078>081-176>179-132045-
HUDSON-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
332 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005>008-132045-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
332 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-132045-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
332 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ350-353-355-132045-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
332 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
454 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     SNOW             SALISBURY MILLS         41.43N  74.12W
02/12/2017  M3.0 INCH        ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
457 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     SNOW             MONROE                  41.36N  73.20W
02/12/2017  M4.0 INCH        FAIRFIELD          CT   PUBLIC

&&

TM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
500 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     SNOW             LEDYARD CENTER          41.47N  72.03W
02/12/2017  M2.0 INCH        NEW LONDON         CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRACE OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN

&&

TM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
501 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     SNOW             HAMDEN                  41.37N  72.90W
02/12/2017  M3.1 INCH        NEW HAVEN          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
504 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     SNOW             BROOKFIELD              41.48N  73.41W
02/12/2017  M3.7 INCH        FAIRFIELD          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
505 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FREEZING RAIN    BROOKFIELD              41.48N  73.41W
02/12/2017  E0.10 INCH       FAIRFIELD          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TM