Gale Warning 1, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

474 
WHUS76 KMTR 041035
MWWMTR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
235 AM PST WED JAN 4 2017


PZZ570-041800-
/O.EXP.KMTR.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170104T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.SC.Y.0002.170104T1100Z-170104T1800Z/
WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT REYES 10-60 NM-
235 AM PST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

* WINDS AND WAVES: SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFMTR) OR 
  OUR MARINE PAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO/MARINE.PHP 
  FOR MORE DETAILS. 

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED
THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ571-041800-
/O.EXP.KMTR.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170104T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.SC.Y.0002.170104T1100Z-170104T1800Z/
WATERS FROM POINT REYES TO PIGEON POINT 10-60 NM-
235 AM PST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

* WINDS AND WAVES: SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFMTR) OR 
  OUR MARINE PAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO/MARINE.PHP 
  FOR MORE DETAILS. 


A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ575-041800-
/O.EXP.KMTR.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170104T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.SC.Y.0002.170104T1100Z-170104T1800Z/
WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PINOS 10-60 NM-
235 AM PST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

* WINDS AND WAVES: SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFMTR) OR 
  OUR MARINE PAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO/MARINE.PHP 
  FOR MORE DETAILS. 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ576-041800-
/O.EXP.KMTR.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170104T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.SC.Y.0002.170104T1100Z-170104T1800Z/
WATERS FROM POINT PINOS TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM-
235 AM PST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

* WINDS AND WAVES: SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFMTR) OR 
  OUR MARINE PAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO/MARINE.PHP 
  FOR MORE DETAILS. 

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED
THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ540-041800-
/O.EXP.KMTR.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170104T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.SC.Y.0002.170104T1100Z-170104T1800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT REYES CALIFORNIA OUT TO
10 NM-
235 AM PST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

* WINDS AND WAVES: SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFMTR) OR 
  OUR MARINE PAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO/MARINE.PHP 
  FOR MORE DETAILS. 


A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ545-041800-
/O.EXP.KMTR.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170104T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.SC.Y.0002.170104T1100Z-170104T1800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT REYES TO PIGEON POINT CALIFORNIA OUT TO
10 NM-
235 AM PST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

* WINDS AND WAVES: SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFMTR) OR 
  OUR MARINE PAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO/MARINE.PHP 
  FOR MORE DETAILS. 


A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ560-041800-
/O.EXP.KMTR.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170104T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.SC.Y.0002.170104T1100Z-170104T1800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PINOS CALIFORNIA OUT TO
10 NM-
235 AM PST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

* WINDS AND WAVES: SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFMTR) OR 
  OUR MARINE PAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO/MARINE.PHP 
  FOR MORE DETAILS. 


A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ565-041800-
/O.EXP.KMTR.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170104T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.SC.Y.0002.170104T1100Z-170104T1800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT PINOS TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS
CALIFORNIA OUT TO 10 NM-
235 AM PST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

* WINDS AND WAVES: SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFMTR) OR 
  OUR MARINE PAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO/MARINE.PHP 
  FOR MORE DETAILS. 


A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ530-041800-
/O.EXP.KMTR.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170104T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.SC.Y.0002.170104T1100Z-170104T1800Z/
SAN PABLO BAY, SUISUN BAY, THE WEST DELTA AND THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE-
235 AM PST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

* WINDS AND WAVES: SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFMTR) OR 
  OUR MARINE PAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO/MARINE.PHP 
  FOR MORE DETAILS. 


A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ531-041800-
/O.EXP.KMTR.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170104T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.SC.Y.0002.170104T1100Z-170104T1800Z/
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE-
235 AM PST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

* WINDS AND WAVES: SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFMTR) OR 
  OUR MARINE PAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO/MARINE.PHP 
  FOR MORE DETAILS. 


A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ535-041800-
/O.CON.KMTR.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170104T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.SC.Y.0002.170104T1400Z-170104T1800Z/
MONTEREY BAY-
235 AM PST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY
THIS MORNING. 

* WINDS AND WAVES: SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFMTR) OR 
  OUR MARINE PAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO/MARINE.PHP 
  FOR MORE DETAILS. 

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
137 PM PST Tue Jan 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Precipitation will begin to increase in coverage and
intensity over the North Bay and then down the coastline through
tonight as a weather system moves through the region. Rainfall
will be heavy at times along with breezy to locally gusty winds as
a frontal boundary pushes through from midday today through early
Wednesday. Rain chances then diminish for Thursday and into early
Friday. A more potent atmospheric river event will then bring the
potential for significant rainfall across much of northern and
central California this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 01:33 PM PST Tuesday...The much talked about
storm is finally showing itself. Synoptically speaking a warm
front is beginning to move over the Bay Area spreading steadier
rainfall. Latest radar continues to show a decent amount of echoes
overspreading the Bay Area. The bigger story is once the surface
low off the coast moves into NorCal and brings a cold front into
the Bay Area. The cold front will also accompany much more moist
airmass. Latest model guidance and satellite derived PWATs
indicate a 1-1.5 inches lurking off the coast. Timing of the
front is currently forecast in the 03-06Z Wed time period. The
front is when we really see rainfall intensity increase across the
region, especially orographically favored locations. The heaviest
rainfall will be this evening through early Wednesday. Initially
over the North Bay and then spreading southward. The intense rain
will likely impact part of the evening commute and possibly the
Wednesday morning commute. Rain will gradually diminish Wednesday
into Thursday from north to south and lingering over the Big Sur
coast the longest. Only minor tweaks were made to the previous
rainfall totals. Rainfall amounts in the next 36-48 hours will
range from 0.50" in the drier inland valleys to 1.50" in most
urban areas closer to the coast. Meanwhile, 1.50" to 2.00" amounts
are likely in the North Bay Valleys. Much heavier precipitation is
possible along the coastal ranges and mentioned above with 3.00"
to 5.00" possible. Some of the hi-res models continue to show some
pockets over the Santa Lucias exceeding 8 plus inches. One
potential hiccup in the forecast is convection. Models show a
slight increase in elevated instability tonight with the front.
Mid level lapse rates increase with some MUCAPE. Could not rule
out a rumble of thunder, but confidence is not high enough to put
them in the forecast. Something to watch closely.

Given the rainfall totals and concern for flash flooding a flash
flood watch has been issued for the Santa Cruz Mts and the Santa
Lucia Mts (Soberanes/Chimney Burn Scars) this evening through
Wednesday.

In addition to rain, wind will continue to increase out of the
south through tonight. Southerly wind of 20 to 30 mph with gusts
to 45 mph will be possible. A wind watch has been issued for the
entire Bay Area.

Latest 12Z model run is now showing a drier period starting
Thursday lasting into Friday. Given the model consensus and trend
decided to cut back on precip and have more a drying trend.
Temperatures will definitely cool behind the departing system
Thursday night. There is definitely bust potential if more
clearing is observed.

Not a lot has change for next weekend either. Medium range models
continue to show another atmospheric river event. If some of the
model guidance is correct next weekend could be an even strong AR
event for the Central Coast. For now, forecast looks good showing
wet weather Saturday and Sunday, but as the event gets closer
details will increase regarding rainfall amounts. Interestingly to
see is the WPC guidance through 7 days shows in excess of 15
inches for the Big Sur coast.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 9:55 AM PST Tuesday...Challenging TAF forecast
with rain, wind, CIGs and LLWS all on the table. Latest thinking
is close to the previous TAF package with widespread rainfall
forecast for all terminals to start during the day. In addition,
agree with previous package that LLWS looks likely with speeds
near 50 KT at the 020 level. Although main issue will be speed
sheer directional values could vary up to 30 degrees from the
surface to 2K. CIGs will likely bound between MVFR and VFR through
the day with lower categories possible during RA to +RA events.
Moderate confidence overall with low to moderate confidence for
specific values.

Vicinity of KSFO...Rain and showers through the period with MVFR
to VFR conditions expected. Only minor changes from the previous
TAF package including delaying the heavier rain and gustier winds
until after 21Z. Also adjusted the G30 group 1 hour earlier to 1Z.
All models in good agreement with LLWS through at least 09Z. TSRA
looks very unlikely although will continue to closely monitor for
any strikes. Low to moderate confidence.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Based off the HRRR and radar TAFs were
adjust to delay the onset of rainfall for both KMRY and KSNS.
CIGs generally bouncing around from VFR to MVFR through the day.
LLWS likely around KMRY after 22Z although not expected at KSNS.
Low to moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...as of 09:55 AM PST Tuesday...A storm system will bring
widespread rainfall to the waters into wednesday with gusty
southerly winds. conditions will improve for thursday and friday
although wind-driven steep fresh swell can be expected.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...Wind Advisory...Entire Bay Area
             Flash Flood Watch...Santa Cruz/Santa Lucia Mts.
             GLW...SF Bay until 3 AM
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 AM
             GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 AM
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM
             GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 AM
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 3 AM
             GLW...Mry Bay from 9 PM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: Bell
MARINE: Bell

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
527 AM PST TUE JAN 3 2017

CAZ006-505>513-516>518-528>530-PZZ530-040400-
SAN FRANCISCO-
COASTAL NORTH BAY INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND THE DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-SANTA CLARA VALLEY INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY/ARROYO SECO AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY
INCLUDING PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY/HOLLISTER VALLEY AND CARMEL VALLEY-
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
SAN PABLO BAY, SUISUN BAY, THE WEST DELTA AND THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE-
527 AM PST TUE JAN 3 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL COAST.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM LATER
TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES FROM THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OR
GREATER AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL THEN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.