Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
630 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR conditions expected today outside of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Coverage is expected to be greatest
well inland, becoming less so closer to the coast and offshore. Drops
in CIGs to mid MVFr levels possible overnight with the overnight
cooling, especially closer to the coast.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 458 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Shortwave energy moves into a
shallow upper trough over the northeastern Conus. This energy's
southward extent of movement will be limited by an upper ridge
stretching west over the northern Gulf of Mexico getting a northward
nudge by a combination of a tropical system moving west over the
southern Caribbean towards the Yucatan and another system starting
to move over the eastern Caribbean. With the upper energy limited in
its southward travel, any help with PoP formation today will be over
the northwestern half of the forecast area. A surface ridge
stretching west over the northern Gulf coast will continue to keep
moisture levels high (around 2" or high), allowing for locally heavy
rains, but with a more organized southerly flow, do not feel there
will be the water problems realized along the coast the last few
days. Localized ponding will still be possible in poor drainage
areas, though. For temps, with increased cloud cover and rain
coverage, have went a bit below seasonal with respect to highs
today, ranging from the upper 80s to around 90. Tonight, as a weak
shortwave energy moves over the area from the west, bringing an
uptick in rain chances mainly after midnight, have went around to
above season with lows due to the thicker cloud cover continuing.
Lows ranging from the low to mid 70s inland, upper 70s along the
immediate coast. /16

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...A shortwave moving
across the Great Lakes region will send a weak cold front
southward into the Tennessee Valley Monday afternoon and evening.
This front will stall across central Alabama on Tuesday. South of
the front, a continued southeasterly flow will continue to
maintain deep layer moisture with precipitable water values over 2
inches. While the front will focus the development of showers and
storms to our north, afternoon heating and the daily seabreeze
will be more than enough for the development of scattered showers
and thunderstorms. As the front sinks southward on Tuesday, the
focus shifts southward toward northern portions of the area.
Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning will be the main
threats. Gusty winds will be possible in the stronger storms.

Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90. Lows remain very muggy,
in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. /13

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The wetter than normal
pattern continues into the extended as upper level shortwaves
continue to combine with a warm and moist airmass over the area,
with precipitable water values over 2 inches. Expect scattered
showers and storms to develop each day, becoming most numerous
during the afternoon hours along the seabreeze. Locally heavy
downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty outflow winds will remain
the primary threats with stronger storms. Meanwhile, temps run
around normal for this time of year, with upper 80s to low 90s
each afternoon and low to mid 70s each night. /13

MARINE...A surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf
coast will create a general onshore flow through the forecast. A
tropical system passing over the Yucatan and heading towards the Rio
Grande will bring a more southeasterly component Monday night
through Thursday, but by Friday, the flow returns to a general
southerly by Friday. At this point, guidance is conservative on
system development, this an increased swell component to the
forecast mid week.

/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
636 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-071200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
636 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop today and last into tonight. Winds gusts to 40 mphs are
possible in the stronger storms this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Isolated damaging
winds are possible with the stronger storms.

A storm moving across the southern Gulf will bring increased
southerly swell mid week. Moderate to strong rip currents are
possible Tuesday into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Saturday.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-071200-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
636 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Winds, waves and seas will be locally higher in and near
thunderstorms through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Winds, waves and seas will be locally higher in and near
thunderstorms through the forecast period.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
851 AM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

MSZ075-078-079-061430-
Perry MS-Stone MS-George MS-
851 AM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGE...SOUTH CENTRAL PERRY AND STONE COUNTIES UNTIL
930 AM CDT...

At 851 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Saucier, or
16 miles northwest of Gulfport, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wiggins, Perkinston and McHenry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3073 8934 3104 8896 3073 8875 3073 8888
      3068 8889 3068 8924 3065 8924 3065 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 1351Z 242DEG 12KT 3061 8918