River Flood Warning 31, NWS Mobile, AL

532 
WGUS84 KMOB 031530
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1030 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-041530-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170506T1500Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.170503T0845Z.170504T0600Z.170506T0900Z.NO/
1030 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for the Chickasawhay At Leakesville until Saturday morning.

* At 10AM Wednesday the stage was 20.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 21.0 feet by after midnight tomorrow. 
  The river will fall below flood stage  Saturday morning.
* At 22.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

706 
WGUS84 KMOB 040129
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
829 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent and ongoing heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-050129-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170506T1500Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.170503T0845Z.170504T0600Z.170506T0900Z.NO/
829 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Saturday morning.
* At 8 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 21 feet by midnight. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by Saturday morning.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

482 
WGUS84 KMOB 041219
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
719 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 


&&

MSC039-041-153-051219-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170507T1200Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.170503T0845Z.170505T1200Z.170507T0600Z.NO/
719 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday morning...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Sunday morning.
* At 6 AM Thursday the stage was 21.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 21.5 feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage early Sunday morning.
* At 22 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

166 
WGUS84 KMOB 050210
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
910 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-060210-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170506T1200Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.170503T0845Z.170504T1200Z.170506T0600Z.NO/
910 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Saturday morning.
* At 8 PM Thursday the stage was 20.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early Saturday 
  morning.
* At 20 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

488 
WGUS84 KMOB 051320
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
820 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 


SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-060000-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170506T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.170503T0845Z.170504T1200Z.170505T1800Z.NO/
820 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay at Leakesville
* until this evening.
* At 7AM Friday the stage was 20.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this afternoon.
* At 20 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

870 
WGUS84 KMOB 051906
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
206 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017
 

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties.

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 


SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-153-051936-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170506T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.170503T0845Z.170504T1200Z.170505T1603Z.NO/
206 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until this evening.
* At 1PM Friday the stage was 19.8 feet. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* At 20 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
644 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
High and mid level clouds will increase through the TAF cycle,
with a few low clouds (~4000 feet) developing Wednesday
afternoon. Light to calm winds tonight will become southeast and
increase to around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots throughout the
day Wednesday. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...A well defined upper trof
evolves over the central states during the period with an associated
surface low near the Texas panhandle advancing to western Arkansas.
A surface ridge near the forecast area meanwhile moves off to the
east and allows for an onshore flow to become established over the
area.  Dry conditions prevail for most of the forecast area through
the period except will have slight chance to chance pops for
southeast Mississippi Wednesday afternoon where the best return
of deep layer moisture will occur along with mainly modest
isentropic lift.  Lows tonight range from the mid 50s inland to near
60 closer to the coast.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to
upper 80s except for lower 80s at the coast. /29

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...A strong cold
front will approach the area from the west Wednesday night with a
line of showers and thunderstorms expected to be ongoing along the
front. Ahead of the cold front, a warm front is expected to begin
lifting northward across the area as southerly flow increases.
This will bring increasing moisture and instability into the
region. Meanwhile, deep layer shear values will increase to 50-60
knots and 0-3km helicity values of 200-300 m^2/S^2. The limiting
factor will be instability due to weak lapse rates around 6.5
C/km. At this time, we expect a strongly forced squall line along
the front to move across the region late Wednesday night through
Thursday morning with damaging straight line winds the main
threat along with the risk of an isolated tornado in bows and
lewps along the line. Ahead of the line, the retreating warm
front will have to be watched for the potential of storms
developing along it. If this occurs, these storms would have a
higher tornado risk. At this time, there is a slight risk across
southeast Mississippi and a Marginal risk across much of southwest
Alabama and the northwest Florida panhandle. Although, I would
not be surprised to see this expanded eastward.

Heavy rain is also expected as precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of
the area.

The severe risk will end by Thursday afternoon as the cold front
moves east. A drier and cooler airmass will follow in the wake of
the front through the remainder of the period. /13

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...An upper trough over the
eastern states will slide eastward with northwesterly upper flow
continuing across our area on the backside of the trough. This
will lead to building high pressure at the surface along with
clear skies, dry conditions and below normal temps through Sunday.
Upper ridging will begin building across the area early next week
with sfc high pressure sliding to the east. This will allow for a
moderation trend with temps warming back into the mid 80s by
Tuesday and Wednesday. /13

MARINE...A cold front approaches from the west through Wednesday
night then moves across the marine area on Thursday.  A light
southerly flow is established by Wednesday morning then
increases through Wednesday night, with a strong offshore
flow expected in the wake of the front.  A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be required Wednesday night through Friday evening, after
which the offshore flow subsides.  Considered issuing the Small
Craft Advisory with this shift, but per coordination will defer to
subsequent shifts. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     morning for ALZ051>053-261>266.

FL...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
324 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-032030-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
324 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches
through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Wednesday into
Thursday morning. For Wednesday night, there is a Slight Risk for
severe storms mainly over extreme southeast Mississippi with a
Marginal Risk for severe storms over most of the remaining area.
For Thursday morning, there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms
roughly along and east of I-65.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Mississippi and
portions of southwest Alabama from 7:00 PM CDT Wednesday to 7:00
AM CDT Thursday.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues on Wednesday. An upgrade
to a high risk of rip currents is possible Wednesday into
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks may be
required Wednesday night through early Thursday.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-032030-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
324 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong winds over the marine area will likely create hazardous
conditions for small craft Wednesday night through Friday evening.

Winds and seas will be higher near periods of showers and storms
mainly Wednesday night through Thursday morning.