River Flood Warning 20, NWS Mobile, AL

128 
WGUS84 KMOB 212255
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
455 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 


SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-222255-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0020.170123T0036Z-170126T1800Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.170123T0036Z.170124T1200Z.170126T1200Z.NO/
455 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* From tomorrow evening until Thursday afternoon.
* At 4PM Saturday the stage was 13.6 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow evening and continue to rise 
  near 21 feet by Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by late
  Thursday.
* At 18 feet...Considerable lowland and agricultural flooding will occur.


&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

872 
WGUS84 KMOB 220411
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1011 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene AND Perry counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-230411-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.170122T1516Z-170127T0100Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.170122T1516Z.170124T0600Z.170126T1900Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday evening...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* From tomorrow late morning until Thursday evening.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 15.1 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to 
  rise near 21 feet by early Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by late Thursday evening.
* At 18 feet...Considerable lowland and agricultural flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

611 
WGUS84 KMOB 222223
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
423 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 



SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-232223-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170126T0712Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.170122T1809Z.170123T1200Z.170126T0112Z.NO/
423 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until late Wednesday night...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until late Wednesday night.
* At 3PM Sunday the stage was 18.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 21.feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Wednesday evening.
* At 18 feet...Considerable lowland and agricultural flooding will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

828 
WGUS84 KMOB 230509
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1109 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene AND Perry COUNTIES. 
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene AND Wayne COUNTIES. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 


SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-240509-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170126T2136Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.170122T1809Z.170124T0600Z.170126T1536Z.NO/
1109 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Thursday afternoon.
* At 10PM Sunday the stage was 19.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 21 feet by early Tuesday morning. The
  river will fall below flood stage by late Thursday morning.
* At 19 feet...Flooding of lowlands and agricultural land will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-240509-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.170123T0120Z.170125T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1109 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until FURTHER NOTICE.
* At 10PM Sunday the stage was 20.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.5 feet by Wednesday early afternoon 
  then begin falling.
* At 20 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

188 
WGUS84 KMOB 231600
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1000 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene AND Perry COUNTIES. 
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene AND Wayne COUNTIES. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 


&&

MSC039-041-111-241600-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170127T0300Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.170122T1809Z.170124T1200Z.170126T2100Z.NO/
1000 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday evening...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Thursday evening.
* At 09AM Monday the stage was 19.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 20.5 feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage Thursday afternoon.
* At 19 feet, Flooding of lowlands and agricultural land will subside as the 
  water level drops below 18 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-241600-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.170123T0120Z.170125T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1000 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until FURTHER NOTICE.
* At 09AM Monday the stage was 21.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.5 feet by Wednesday morning then 
  begin falling.
* At 22 feet, Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying areas 
  become cut off by high water.  

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

204 
WGUS84 KMOB 240117
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
717 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene AND Wayne COUNTIES. 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene AND Perry COUNTIES. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-250117-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170127T0300Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.170122T1809Z.170124T1200Z.170126T2100Z.NO/
717 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Thursday evening.
* At 6 PM Monday the stage was 20.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 20.5 feet by Tuesday morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage Thursday afternoon.
At 19.0 feet, Flooding of lowlands and agricultural land will subside as the 
water level drops below 18 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-250117-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-170128T1800Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.170123T0120Z.170125T1200Z.170128T1200Z.NO/
717 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At 6 PM Monday the stage was 21.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.6 feet by Wednesday morning then
  slowly fall through the rest of the week. 
At 22.0 feet, Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying areas 
become cut off by high water.  

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

931 
WGUS84 KMOB 241721
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1121 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene AND Perry COUNTIES. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene AND Wayne COUNTIES. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-251721-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170126T2024Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.170122T1809Z.170124T0730Z.170126T1424Z.NO/
1121 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Thursday afternoon.
* At 10AM Tuesday the stage was 19.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Thursday morning.
* At 19.0 feet, Flooding of lowlands and agricultural land will subside as the 
  water level drops below 18 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-251721-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-170129T0959Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.170123T0120Z.170126T0600Z.170129T0359Z.NO/
1121 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

...Flood Warning extended until late Saturday night...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until late Saturday night.
* At 10AM Tuesday the stage was 21.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.5 feet by early Thursday morning. 
  The river will fall below flood stage Saturday before midnight.
* At 22 feet, Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying areas 
  become cut off by high water.  

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

182 
WGUS84 KMOB 250051
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
651 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene AND Perry COUNTIES. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene AND Wayne COUNTIES. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-260051-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170126T2024Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.170122T1809Z.170124T0730Z.170126T1424Z.NO/
651 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Thursday afternoon.
* At 6 PM Tuesday the stage was 19.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Thursday morning.
At 19.0 feet, Flooding of lowlands and agricultural land will subside as the 
water level drops below 18 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-260051-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-170129T0959Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.170123T0120Z.170126T0600Z.170129T0359Z.NO/
651 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until late Saturday night.
* At 6 PM Tuesday the stage was 21.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.5 feet by early Thursday morning. 
  The river will fall below flood stage Saturday before midnight.
At 22.0 feet, Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying areas 
become cut off by high water.  

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

239 
WGUS84 KMOB 251624
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1024 AM CST WED JAN 25 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry counties. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 


SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-261330-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170126T1330Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.170122T1809Z.170124T0730Z.170126T0730Z.NO/
1024 AM CST WED JAN 25 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Thursday morning.
* At 9AM Wednesday the stage was 19 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by after midnight 
  tomorrow.
* At 19 feet...Flooding of lowlands and agricultural land will subside as the 
  water level drops below 18 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-261623-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-170127T1800Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.170123T0120Z.170124T1245Z.170127T1200Z.NO/
1024 AM CST WED JAN 25 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 9AM Wednesday the stage was 21 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Friday morning.
* At 20 feet...Flooding of lowlands will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

211 
WGUS84 KMOB 260407
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1007 PM CST WED JAN 25 2017
 
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene AND Perry COUNTIES. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene AND Wayne COUNTIES. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-261330-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170126T1330Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.170122T1809Z.170124T0730Z.170126T0730Z.NO/
1007 PM CST WED JAN 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Thursday morning.
* At 9 PM Wednesday the stage was 18.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage late tonight.
* At 18 feet, Considerable lowland and agricultural flooding will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-270406-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-170127T1800Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.170123T0120Z.170124T1245Z.170127T1200Z.NO/
1007 PM CST WED JAN 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 9 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river is forecast to crest around 20.6 late tonight, the commence a slow
  fall to below flood stage Friday morning.
* At 20 feet, Flooding of lowlands will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1145 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

&&

.UPDATE...
Did a quick update to the forecast to remove severe thunderstorm
wording in the weather grids for the rest of the afternoon after the
expiration of Tornado Watch #11. Also cancelled the remaining parts
of the Wind Advisory based on observational data. No other changes
were made at this time.

ISC grids have been sent and should be posted to the internet.
Updated text products have already been sent.  /02/

&&

.AVIATION...
Line of SHRA/TSRA continues moving E of forecast area late this
morning. Visible satellite imagery showed the back edge of the cloud
line was located near a KMGM-KPRN-KPNS line. Will maintain MVFR with
isolated IFR ceilings east of this line for another couple of hours,
with flight categories largely becoming VFR everywhere through the
afternoon.

Flight categories should deteriorate after 22/0000 UTC, as a second
round of convection develops. Probabilistic guidance suggests MVFR
ceilings should develop across SE MS/SW AL between 22/0000-0300 UTC.
SHRA/TSRA will be possible through the early morning hours before
ending as a cold front moves W to E across the region. Expect
improving conditions Sunday morning, with a gradual return to VFR
flight categories expected.  /02/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1002 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...
First things first -- Line of strong to severe thunderstorms
continues to advance eastward as an initial shortwave trough ejects
northeast over the region. An analysis of the near-storm environment
shows 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the line, with slightly higher
values closer to the coast. Effective bulk shear values (35-40 kts) remain
sufficient for deep organized convection in a highly diffluent flow
aloft.

Think the bigger severe risk in our area through late morning
would primarily come in the form of damaging wind gusts since steeper
mid-level lapse rates are to the west of the squall line. A tornado
risk remains, although 0-3 km bulk shear vector orientation doesn't
appear to be that favorable for tornado generation with any
mesovortices. The Tornado Watch will remain in effect through 11 AM for
those areas along, and ahead of the thunderstorm line.

Observational data continues to show gusty gradient winds ahead of
the squall line. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for those areas. I
have cancelled the advisory as the line moves through, and will
continue to do so. Current gut feeling (based in a solid foundation
of meteorological data assimilation) is that we will be able to
cancel the Wind Advisory for all areas prior to the 2 PM expiration
time.

While the immediate severe weather risk may be over after the passage
of this line of thunderstorms, another round will be possible for our
area this evening.  Latest subjective analysis shows a surface
boundary near a Mobile to Auburn line. Expect this boundary to sink
southward this afternoon, leaving much of the area "prime for
recharging."

The next (main?) shortwave trough, currently seen spinning over
northern New Mexico in the water vapor imagery, is expected to dive
toward North Texas by this evening. Upper-level diffluence will again
increase over the forecast area ahead of this system as the the left
exit region of the jet moves overhead. This increase in synoptic
scale forcing should push the surface boundary back northward over
the forecast area.

Forecast soundings indicate a near-storm environment primed for
another round of severe thunderstorms. MLCAPE values between 1500 and
2000 J/kg will be possible, with surface-3km bulk shear magnitudes
approaching 50 knots toward sunset with some mid-level dry air.
Given this environment, as well as the forecast location of the
surface boundary, I would not be surprised to see an increased
tornado and damaging wind threat again across parts of our area. In
addition, steep mid-level (700-500mb) lapse rates hovering around 8
degrees C/km suggests the potential for large hail, especially in any
of the stronger storms. There is still some debate as to the exact
timing of this round, but all indications suggest the threat ramps up
again toward 6 PM.

Other than an update to the hazard grids, I have not made any changes
to the ongoing forecast at this time. Will update a suite of text
products shortly due to the early cancellation of the Tornado Watch.
Thanks to the Storm Prediction Center for collaboration this morning.
/02/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 739 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Updated zones to indicate a Wind Advisory for coastal
counties out in advance of the squall line that is moving east across
the area. An increasingly strong low level jet has resulted in a
strong southerly surface wind flow, sustained at 15 to 25 mph with
frequent gusts to 35 mph. These southerly winds will diminish
somewhat this afternoon in the wake of the storms, so the Advisory
is only valid through 2 pm this afternoon. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 715 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
21/12Z issuance...Strong southerly winds 15 to 25 knots, with ocnl
stronger gusts, out ahead of an approaching squall line. The line of
storms will pass west to east across the region this morning, with
southerly winds continuing but weakening. The showers and storms will
end for most areas this afternoon, but increase in coverage again
this evening and overnight. As the storms move through this morning,
IFR or LIFR ceilings/vsbys can be expected in and near storms. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 516 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...Severe weather event
expected to be ongoing over the western portions of the forecast area
at the beginning of the forecast period, and HiRes models are in
agreement in moving the convective activity east across the remainder
of the forecast area through the morning and exit the region by early
afternoon. After a lull in activity this afternoon and into early
this evening, another potential round of severe storms is possible
late this evening and overnight (most likely in areas east of I-65 in
southwest Alabama and over the western Florida panhandle) Saturday
into early Sunday morning.

Latest RAP and HRRR models indicate an 850mb southwesterly jet of 50
to 60 knots working its way east across the forecast area (Mississippi
and into southwest Alabama and the western Florida panhandle) this
morning. This is also supported best by the 21/00Z ECMWF. At the
surface winds remain backed out of the south and southeast due to a
developing surface meso-low over southwest Mississippi early this
morning, that is expected to move to near Tuscaloosa Alabama by
around 7 am this morning, and then on east-northeast across central
Alabama and likely weakening through midday. With this, strongly
curved hodographs/low level shear parameters will favor the potential
for tornadoes this morning across southwest Alabama and the western
Florida panhandle, where RAP and HRRR both indicate 0-1 km Storm
Relative Helicity as high as 400-500 m2/s2. As a result,
strong/significant tornado (EF2+) threat will migrate out of
southeast Mississippi and into southwest Alabama through around 9 am.
Severe threat will then continue east across south central Alabama
and the western Florida panhandle through late morning and very early
afternoon as the upper shortwave ejects off to the northeast. A
Tornado Watch is in effect for our southeast Mississippi counties
through 7 am and may need to be extended in time if storms have not
exited east of that area by then, and a Tornado Watch is in effect
for all of southwest and south central Alabama and the western
Florida until 11 am. As the 850 mb jet works into the region from the
west, 65 degree plus dewpoints will advect inland across the region,
with MLCape approaching 1400 J/kg in some areas, so very unstable
airmass for this time of the year. With the increasing atmospheric
moisture, also looking at a flash flood threat increasing across
portions of the forecast area and will have to monitor for this
possibility.

Most of the morning activity will likely be east of the forecast
area by noon or early this afternoon, with a lull in convective
activity late this afternoon into early evening. As the upper low
ejects northeast away from the region late today into the evening,
shortwave energy aloft just in advance of the final approaching
front will possibly re-initiate convection east of I-65 in Alabama
and the western Florida panhandle. This scenario is a little more
iffy than the earlier weather, but if it does develop conditions
will still support another round of severe weather.

Highs today in the low to mid 70s, lows tonight in the upper 50s
inland to mid 60s coastal. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Monday night/...Long-wave high level trof
axis from Oklahoma, southward to the upper Texas coast by daybreak
Sunday morning is forecast to translate eastward over the mid-south
to central Gulf coast by Sunday evening. This feature pivots east of
the local area by Monday morning. At the surface, a large occluded
frontal cyclone over Arkansas Sunday morning advances east during the
day, then lifts up to the northeast over the Appalachians Monday
morning. Extending southward from the low, cold front makes swift
passage Sunday morning with thunderstorms remaining likely along and
ahead of it. Into the afternoon, as the large occluded frontal low
begins to lift into Appalachians, forecasters anticipate wrap-around
cloudiness/moisture on the west and southwest side of the low's
comma head to maintain a chance of showers Sunday afternoon.
Southwest winds breezy on Sunday. May see winds gusting to between 25
and 35 mph along the coastal zones. Daytime highs Sunday in the mid
to upper 60s northwest of I-65 with lower 70s southeast of the
interstate. Despite the frontal cyclone well to our northeast over
the Mid-Atlantic on Monday, the large expanse of its cyclonic
curvature will likely contribute to a shallow layer of wrap around
cloudiness holding tough for much of the day before clearing from
west to east late in the day and into Monday night. Rain chances
ending Monday and Monday night. Another potentially breezy day for
Monday with winds coming out of the northwest. With expectation of
clouds/lower deep layer thickness values will lean to the cooler side
of the guidance envelope for Monday's highs (upper 50s interior to
lower 60s coast) which is closer to climatological means. Overnight
lows Monday night much cooler, near 40 interior to mid to upper 40s
coast. /10

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Surface high pressure moves
across the local area on Tuesday, bringing sunny skies and daytime
highs in the mid 60s. Next front approaches from the west on
Wednesday with chance of showers returning to the local area.
Daytime highs moderate back into the lower to mid 70s Wednesday
before frontal passage on Thursday causes another swing in
temperatures with highs lowering in the mid to upper 50s northwest
and lower 60s southeast of I-65. To close out the week, a cool day on
Friday with highs looking to not make it out of the 50s area-wide.
Low temperatures to dip back down into the mid to upper 30s north of
the coast Friday morning. /10

MARINE...Periods of strong to potentially severe storms will affect
the marine area through tonight...with winds and seas being higher
near storms. A strong cold front approaching from the west will move
across the marine area on Sunday, with showers and storms ending
from west to east. Increasing south to southwest flow in advance of
the front today and tonight, becoming west to northwest and
increasing drastically Sunday afternoon and Sunday night in the wake
of the front. Small craft conditions likely and gale conditions
possible Sunday night into Monday. The strong offshore flow subsides
along with diminishing seas late Monday into Monday night. 12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for
     GMZ631-632-650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for GMZ631-632-650-655.

     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for GMZ670-
     675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Butts

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
528 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-221130-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
528 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...MAINLY
WEST OF I-65 THROUGH AROUND 9 AM...THEN EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO THE EAST OF I-65 AND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
TODAY, WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WEST OF A GROVE
HILL...BAY MINETTE...GULF SHORES LINE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM. TORNADO
THREAT WILL REMAIN...BUT LESSEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST.
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY
WITH ANY OF THE STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FINAL APPROACHING FRONT WILL POSSIBLY RE-
INITIATE STORMS EAST OF I-65 IN ALABAMA AND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEVELOPMENT BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP CONDITIONS
WILL STILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL A POSSIBILITY.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE SEE MORE ON THE SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS AND TIMING...AND ALSO FLOODING
IMPACTS ON OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS 70 MPH OR HIGHER WILL PERSIST
EARLY. STORMS ENDING LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...FOR SUSTAINED 25 MPH WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...IMPROVING
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS WINDS SUBSIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BE
NEEDED IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS EARLY SUNDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-221130-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
528 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD LOCALLY CONTAIN LARGE DAMAGING HAIL
AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS 70 MPH OR HIGHER...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER WATER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE
MORE ON THE IMPACTS AND TIMING AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH GALE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A GALE WATCH IN EFFECT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1043 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     WATER SPOUT      6 W DESTIN              30.39N 86.59W
01/21/2017                   GMZ655             FL   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF TWO WATER SPOUTS OFF THE COAST OF OKALOOSA
            ISLAND.

&&

DJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1049 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 AM     TORNADO          4 ESE TOXEY             31.89N 88.25W
01/21/2017                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 4 INJ *** LIKELY TORNADO PRODUCED MAJOR TREE AND
            POWER LINE DAMAGE ACROSS CHAPEL HILL ROAD AND PLEASANT
            HILL ROAD AREAS. DAMAGE TO 20-25 RESIDENCES SOME WITH
            MAJOR DAMAGE. 4 MINOR INJURIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

&&

JFB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1050 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE LOXLEY            30.63N 87.75W
01/21/2017                   BALDWIN            AL   PUBLIC

            DOWNED POWER POLE NEAR THE CORNER OF HWY 55 AND HWY 68 IN
            LOXLEY

&&

DJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1108 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MCKENZIE                31.54N 86.71W
01/21/2017                   BUTLER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON A HOME ON ELIZABETH STREET. ANOTHER HOME
            HAD SLIGHT DAMAGE FROM A FALLEN TREE ON GARLAND ROAD.

&&

JFB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1110 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE BREWTON           31.11N 87.06W
01/21/2017                   ESCAMBIA           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES FALLEN ON HOMES AND TREES DOWN BETWEEN HWY
            31 AND SOWELL RD.

&&

DJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1142 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE HOWELL            30.79N 88.41W
01/21/2017                   MOBILE             AL   PUBLIC

            LARGE PINE TREE UPROOTED, TREE LIMBS SNAPPED,AND FENCE
            BLOWN DOWN NEAR A PUBLIC RESIDENCE.

&&

DJOHNSON