River Flood Warning 17, NWS Mobile, AL

811 
WGUS84 KMOB 212248
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
448 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia county. 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa counties. 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa county. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 


SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-222248-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.170124T0600Z-170124T1800Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.170124T0600Z.170124T0600Z.170124T1200Z.NO/
448 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* From early Tuesday morning until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 4PM Saturday the stage was 12 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Tuesday morning and continue to 
  rise near 17 feet by early Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by noon Tuesday.
* At 17.5 feet...Some flooding of lowlands will continue until the river level 
  drops below 13 feet.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-222248-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.170123T0600Z-170123T1200Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.170123T0600Z.170123T0600Z.170123T0600Z.UU/
448 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Monday morning...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* From early Monday morning until Monday morning.
* At 4PM Saturday the stage was 4.7 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Monday morning and continue to 
  rise near 11 feet by early Monday morning. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by early Monday morning.
* At 12 feet...Flooding of secondary roads and lowlands will begin.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

FLC091-222248-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.170124T1200Z-170125T0600Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.170124T1200Z.170124T1200Z.170125T0000Z.NO/
448 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night...The Flood Warning continues
for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From Tuesday morning until late Tuesday night.
* At 4PM Saturday the stage was 6.6 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Tuesday morning and continue to rise 
  near 8 feet by Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by late
  Tuesday night.
* At 8 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

920 
WGUS84 KMOB 220408
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1008 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017
 

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Alabama...
Florida...
 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia county.
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and 
  Santa Rosa counties.
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa county.

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 


SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-220438-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170124T1800Z/
/CTYF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1008 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Escambia River Near Century
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 12.5 feet. 
* Flood stage is 17 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-220438-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170123T1200Z/
/BAKF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1008 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Blackwater River Near Baker
* until Monday morning.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 5.8 feet. 
* Flood stage is 11 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

FLC091-220438-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170125T0600Z/
/CRVF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1008 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Shoal River Near Crestview
* until late Tuesday night.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 6.7 feet. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* At 8 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas.  

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
529 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...This package is reflecting the first of several rounds
of inclement weather expected this weekend. As the evening
progresses, am expecting CIGS/VISBYS to drop into IFR or lower
levels, especially close to the coast and over SE Mississippi/SW
Alabama as onshore flow brings in stratus. With winds staying up as
the next system approaches, dense fog will be localized. Timing of
shra/tsra moving over the area is in the 09z reaching SE Mississippi,
the spreading east and east of the fa by 21z.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...Two rounds of potentially severe
weather will affect the forecast area, the first occurring late
tonight into Saturday morning, followed by a second round developing
Saturday afternoon.  An upper trof over the central and southern
Plains strengthens through Saturday as a second system surges from
the western states and into the southern Plains.  With a continuing
moist southerly low level flow and a series of vigorous shortwaves,
strong deep layer lift shifts into much of the forecast area after
midnight tonight, then shifts eastward across the eastern portion
during Saturday morning, except lingering into the early afternoon
hours near the western Florida panhandle.  A second region of deep
layer lift then advances into the forecast area Saturday afternoon,
which will represent the second round of potentially severe weather.

One forecast concern regards the timing of a warm front expected to
develop over the northern Gulf, and then advance northward through
the forecast area during the period.  The advance of the warm front
may be delayed if abundant precipitation develops north of the
boundary tonight, but at this time expect the warm front to advance
into the southern portion of the forecast area late tonight, then
continue northward through the remainder of the area by around
midday Saturday.  MLCape values increase to around 500 J/kg for much
of the area late tonight, with values around 750 J/kg generally over
southeast Mississippi.  Based on the timing of the deep layer lift
and anticipated position of the warm front, along with abundant
shear which will be in place, expect that the highest potential for
severe storm development will be over southeast Mississippi and
adjacent southwest Alabama counties late tonight.

For Saturday morning as MLCape values increase to 1000-1500 J/kg,
expect severe storm potential for essentially the entire forecast
area early Saturday morning which then will be mostly along and east
of the I-65 corridor later Saturday morning as the best deep layer
lift shifts eastward.  While the 850 mb flow decreases to around 30
knots for much of the area Saturday afternoon, higher values of 35-
40 knots are expected generally along and east of I-65.  Expect 0-1
km helicity values of 100-125 m2/s2 west of I-65, with values of 150-
175 m2/s2 east of I-65.  MLCape values Saturday afternoon increase
to range from 1500 J/kg well inland to 2000-2500 J/kg closer to the
coast.  There may be a brief lull in convective activity around
midday Saturday, but this will be followed by convection again
increasing in coverage as the second region of deep layer lift
shifts into the area. Considering that the placement of the best
instability and shear will be generally along and east of I-65
Saturday afternoon, expect that this portion of the forecast area
represents the highest potential for severe storm development.
Severe storms that develop during the entire period will be capable
of damaging wind gusts and large hail, with isolated tornadoes
possible.

A general 1.0-2.0 inches of rain will fall across the forecast area
during the period, with locally higher amounts possible.  Will
continue with a Limited Risk of Flooding for much of the forecast
area through Saturday, except for an Enhanced Risk over southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama where the greatest potential
exists for locally high rainfall amounts.  With very high dewpoints
in place in the area flowing over cooler near shore waters, have
gone with a dense fog advisory for much of the coastal counties
until about 09Z, at which point mixing due to convective activity
will act to dissipate the fog. /29

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...A dry slot will
advance through the forecast area Saturday night, but until this
occurs an 850 mb jet is expected to increase to 40-50 knots
generally east of I-65 Saturday evening in an environment with
MLCape values of at least 1500 J/kg initially decreasing to 750-1000
J/kg by midnight. So, we expect continued severe storm potential
mainly along and east of I-65 Saturday evening which gradually
decreases in potential late Saturday evening, possibly continuing
into the early morning hours Sunday before ending as the dry slot
sweeps through and shuts down convective activity. While convective
activity shuts down Sunday into Sunday night, the impressive size
and strength of the surface cyclone will allow for persistent wrap
around low-level moisture transport from north to south into the
central Gulf states through Monday, leading to lingering cloud cover
and perhaps some gusty winds. Skies then expected to clear from west
to east Monday night as ridging builds in from the west.

Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sunday then cool off to upper 50s
and low 60s Monday. Lows in the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday night
take on a similar cooling trend, with upper 40s to low 50s expected
Sunday night and low to mid 40s Monday night. 29/49

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The surface and upper-level
ridges provide clear skies and pleasant weather Tuesday before moving
off to the east ahead of the next approaching system. The next trough
begins to dig across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, with another
frontal passage supporting a chance for showers across the central
Gulf states Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then builds
back into the region during the latter half of next week as zonal
flow sets up aloft along the southern periphery of deepening low
pressure over eastern Canada.

A warming trend sets up Tuesday into Wednesday as southerly flow
ahead of the next approaching front returns Gulf moisture to the
area. Expect mid 60s across the area Tuesday and low 70s Wednesday.
Cooler temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s expected Thursday and
Friday in the wake of the frontal passage. Overnight lows will
likewise see a warming trend with the return of Gulf moisture Tuesday
and Wednesday nights (mid 40s inland to low 50s near the coast)
before dipping into the mid 30s in the wake of the cold front during
the latter half of next week. /49

MARINE...Expect areas of dense fog to develop over bays and near
shore waters early this evening and continue until approximately 09Z
when mixing due to convective activity will dissipate the fog.  A
strong cold front approaching from the west moves across the marine
area on Sunday.  A southerly flow ahead of the front becomes strong
on Saturday, then switches to a northwesterly flow in the wake of
the front with Gale conditions expected for much of the area.  The
strong offshore flow subsides Monday into Monday night.  Have gone
with a Small Craft for the 20-60 nm portion beginning Saturday
afternoon, followed by nearly the entire area for Saturday night
through Sunday.  Have gone with a Gale Watch fog nearly the entire
area for Sunday night, which ends early Monday morning. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Saturday
     for ALZ263>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Saturday
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Saturday
     for MSZ078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for
     GMZ631-632-650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     GMZ631-632-650-655.

     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for GMZ670-
     675.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     GMZ670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
259 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-212100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
259 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY

DENSE FOG WILL FORM THIS EVENING CLOSE TO THE COAST AND OVER AREA
BAYS, SOUNDS AND WATERWAYS. VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AFTER 4 AM WEST
OF PENSACOLA AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE AND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP OVER
SE MISSISSIPPI AND SW ALABAMA TONIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. SOME STORMS COULD LOCALLY CONTAIN LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS 70 MPH OR HIGHER. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE (SOME AS HIGH AS EF-2 INTENSITY POSSIBLE). PLEASE SEE MORE
ON THE IMPACTS AND TIMING, TO INCLUDE FLOODING IMPACTS AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB/.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF I-65 THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS 70 MPH OR HIGHER WILL PERSIST. ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES WILL ALSO POSSIBLE (SOME AS HIGH AS EF-2 INTENSITY
POSSIBLE).

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) FOR SUSTAINED 25 MPH WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS IS
REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-212100-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
259 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY

DENSE FOG WILL FORM THIS EVENING OVER AREA BAYS, SOUNDS AND WATERWAYS.
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AFTER 4 AM WEST OF PENSACOLA AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD.

THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME STORMS COULD LOCALLY
CONTAIN LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS 70 MPH OR HIGHER.
ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER WATER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE MORE ON
THE IMPACTS AND TIMING AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB/.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF MOBILE BAY
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS 70 MPH OR HIGHER WILL
PERSIST. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES OVER WATER WILL ALSO POSSIBLE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY UNTIL EARLY MONDAY.