Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Milwaukee, WI

246 
WWUS53 KMKX 230058
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
758 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

WIC025-055-230115-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-170623T0115Z/
Dane WI-Jefferson WI-
758 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DANE AND SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 757 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stoughton,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Stoughton, Edgerton, Lake Koshkonong, Lake Ripley, Albion, Rockdale
and Busseyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4285 8922 4293 8922 4302 8893 4285 8883
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 250DEG 18KT 4290 8915 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MRC

878 
WWUS53 KMKX 230106
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
806 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

WIC025-055-230115-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-170623T0115Z/
Dane WI-Jefferson WI-
806 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DANE AND SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 806 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Edgerton,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Lake Koshkonong, Lake Ripley, Albion, Rockdale and Busseyville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4286 8915 4294 8915 4302 8893 4285 8883
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 248DEG 19KT 4292 8909 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MRC

425 
WWUS53 KMKX 230112
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
812 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

WIC025-055-230122-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-170623T0115Z/
Dane WI-Jefferson WI-
812 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DANE AND
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4286 8915 4294 8915 4302 8893 4285 8883
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 248DEG 19KT 4293 8907 

$$

MRC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
721 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...

A few thunderstorms are developing out ahead of the main line,
within the warm sector. They are not forming along a radar-defined
boundary, but it's roughly in the area of surface convergence
between north winds and south winds. The RAP mesoanalysis
indicates 1000-2000 CAPE south of the I-94 corridor that is
finally becoming uncapped. Bulk shear is not too shabby, around 30
kt. A few of these storms are intense, but are not growing too
high yet to support large hail. There was a report of pea size
hail in Waukesha.

Now for the evolution of the main line of storms that is expected
to track through southern WI later this evening... I think the
kicker of this convection that is focused along an elevated
frontal boundary is going to come from a shortwave trough way up
in northern MN. As it tracks southeast, this front will finally
start to move southeast. Timing is still uncertain, but the
showers are starting to get into our area now. Potential for
severe is limited. Thus, SPC dropped our area into a marginal risk
this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Scattered storms are expected early this evening. Then a main line
of storms will track southeast through southern WI from late
evening through overnight hours. Timing is still uncertain of this
line.

Period of MVFR ceilings possible behind the front late tonight.
Quiet weather expected Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Latest SPC Day 1 Outlook has shifted most of the Slight Risk for
severe storms southward into northern Illinois, with a Marginal
Risk across most of the area. This is mainly in response to most
of the area seeing cloudy skies with on and off showers and
isolated storms for most of the day. There have been some breaks
in the southern parts of the area, with the north remaining
cloudy.

The best mean layer CAPE will be south of the state line, with
lower values along with some mean layer CIN in most of the area.
The best deep layer shear is in northern portions of the area,
with lower amounts to the south. Thus, it appears that areas near
and south of the Illinois border have the best shot at strong to
severe storms.

Mesoscale models still have convection developing across the area
by middle evening and pushing southeast with the cold front, with
the HRRR developing convection by 00Z to the north of the area.
Continued high PoPs for thunderstorms tonight, ending northwest to
southeast later tonight. Gusty winds, hail and heavy rainfall
still are the main hazards, with the best chances for isolated
severe storms near the Illinois border.

Friday through Monday...Forecast confidence medium.

A large polar trough will become established over much of ern
Canada and the Great Lakes for the weekend into early next week.
Cold advection on nwly sfc winds will increase late Fri aft-eve
but high temps on Fri will reach 75-80F beforehand. Otherwise nwly
sfc winds and unseasonably cool temps will prevail for the
weekend and Mon. High temps from 65-70F are expected with lows in
the upper 40s to middle 50s. A fairly strong shortwave trough will
bring good chances of showers Sat nt especially north of Madison
and Milwaukee. The chances of showers will continue for Sun-Mon
given cold temps aloft and potential weak vorticity maximums.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday...Forecast confidence
medium.

High pressure will finally settle over the area Mon nt-Tue
followed by a pattern change to more zonal flow across the nrn
USA. Thus warmer temps and higher humidity expected ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough and cold front for Wed-Thu.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Gusty south to southwest winds should
linger until early evening in southern portions of the area.
Weaker winds will be found in cloudy areas to the north. Ceilings
should remain above 3000 feet this afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to slide southeast across the area
tonight, from northwest to southeast. They will spread southeast
during the evening, then end later tonight. Look for visibilities
down to 2 miles, and ceilings down to around 2000 feet. These may
be lower in any stronger storms. Gusty winds, hail and heavy
rainfall are possible, with the best chances for isolated severe
storms near the Illinois border.

May see ceilings around 2000 feet linger after the storms exit
the area later tonight into Friday morning, before mixing out.
West winds should become gusty by the afternoon hours. Some
diurnal cumulus clouds are possible as well.

MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory continues until 00Z Friday south of Port
Washington. Gusty south to southwest winds are expected until
early evening before weakening.

Thunderstorms are then expected to slide southeastward across the
area tonight. The timing for the nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan should be generally between 03Z and 09Z Friday. The best
chances for isolated severe storms will be toward Winthrop Harbor
Illinois. Gusty winds and hail are possible.

May see gusty west northwest winds reach Small Craft Advisory
levels at times on Friday, with cooler and drier air moving into
the region. Good mixing and a tight pressure gradient will help
with mixing these gusts to the surface. Highest waves will be over
the open waters.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...Cronce
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Friday Night through Thursday...Gehring

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
333 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-232045-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
333 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms will expand this evening from north to south across
central and southern Wisconsin as a cold front slowly moves
southward. Hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are the main
hazards with isolated severe storms possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

There are slight chances of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight.

LMZ643>646-232045-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
333 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 7 PM from Port
Washington to Winthrop Harbor Illinois. Gusty southwest winds will
continue especially from Milwaukee to Kenosha.

Thunderstorms will expand this evening from north to south across
central and southern Wisconsin and adjacent Lake Michigan as a
cold front slowly moves southward. Hail, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are the main hazards with isolated severe storms
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

West to northwest winds will approach Small Craft Advisory levels
on Friday and Saturday.

There are slight chances of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
741 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

WIZ063-064-230115-
Jefferson-Dane-
741 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DANE COUNTY...

At 741 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Stoughton,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stoughton, Edgerton, Cambridge, Albion, Utica and Rockdale.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4285 8931 4289 8933 4303 8901 4285 8902
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 243DEG 20KT 4289 8925

MRC