Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Milwaukee, WI

674 
WWUS53 KMKX 240156
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
856 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

WIC101-240230-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170324T0230Z/
Racine WI-
856 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN RACINE COUNTY...

At 855 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wind Point, or 
near Racine, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Racine, Wind Point, Caledonia, North Bay, Franksville and North Cape.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4276 8774 4275 8775 4270 8776 4278 8809
      4284 8805 4284 8784 4285 8782 4285 8780
      4278 8773
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 276DEG 44KT 4279 8775 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

SPM

066 
WWUS53 KMKX 240202
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
902 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

WIC101-240230-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170324T0230Z/
Racine WI-
902 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN RACINE COUNTY...

At 902 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wind Point, or 
north of Racine, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Racine, Wind Point, Caledonia, North Bay and Franksville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4275 8775 4270 8776 4274 8793 4284 8791
      4284 8784 4285 8782 4285 8779 4278 8773
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 276DEG 44KT 4278 8763 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

SPM

969 
WWUS53 KMKX 240211
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
911 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

WIC101-240221-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170324T0230Z/
Racine WI-
911 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN RACINE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail is 
still possible from additional thunderstorms over the next 30 
minutes or so.

LAT...LON 4275 8775 4270 8776 4274 8793 4284 8791
      4284 8784 4285 8782 4285 8779 4278 8773
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 276DEG 44KT 4277 8747 

$$

SPM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
736 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...

Area of elevated convection moving east through the area, being
driven by strong/focused 850 mb to 700 mb warm air advection and
low level jet nose. Not a lot of elevated CAPE, but enough with
the strong upward vertical motion and effective layer shear to
produce hail. We had a few 1 inch diameter hail reports in Iowa
and Lafayette Counties with the initial storms, with several
reports of small hail since then across the Madison area and
points south.

Expect these storms to continue east across the rest of the area
this evening, exiting the east by 10 pm or 11 pm, as the focused
warm air advection and low level jet pivot across the area. The
strongest storms could still bring isolated hail to 1 inch in
diameter, along with cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy
rainfall.

There should be a lull in precipitation later on this evening and
overnight/Friday, as the area gets into the warm sector and the
best upward vertical motion focuses north and west of the area. We
should get into rain again later Friday into Friday evening, as
low pressure moves to the south of the area.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Broken line of thunderstorms will continue to move east through
the area this evening, exiting the eastern areas between 10 pm and
11 pm. Look for isolated hail to 1 inch in diameter, along with
cloud to ground lightning, brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds
to around 30 knots. Visibility values may drop to 1 to 2 miles as
well, with ceilings around 2000 feet.

There should be a lull in the precipitation later tonight into
most of Friday. Ceilings should rise to above 3000 feet, with
visibilities above 6 miles during this period. Could even see some
clearing in the far southern counties at times as well.

Gusty south to southeast winds this evening should weaken somewhat
and become more light and variable later tonight into Friday
morning. Northeast winds should then develop and become gusty
later Friday into Saturday night, as low pressure passes by to the
south.

&&

.MARINE...

Extending the Small Craft Advisory for areas south of North Point
Lighthouse until 1 am Friday morning, matching the one for the
north half of the nearshore waters. Gusty south to southeast winds
are lingering, with gusts to around 30 knots at times. Elevated
waves above 4 feet should subside by 1 am Friday morning. These
winds should weaken later tonight into Friday.

Another Small Craft Advisory will be needed for later Friday into
at least Saturday night, as low pressure passes by to the south.
Gusty northeast winds are expected during this period, with high
waves developing with the onshore fetch.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 325 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017)

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

A complex situation is playing out across the northern plains. A
weak warm front is pushing northeast through Iowa and Illinois while
a secondary boundary stretching from north central IA into NE Kansas
also pushes to the NE. Near the intersection of these two
boundaries, a small cluster of thunderstorms have developed and have
been pushing across northern Iowa though the afternoon. Meanwhile, a
large dry slot has developed between the two frontal features.

High res guidance has a very poor handle on all of these features,
but given current trends and set up of the atmosphere, am expecting
the cluster of thunderstorms to gradually weaken before making it
to our western CWA. Shortly after those showers and storms arrive,
the warm front will push through the area. We can expect at least a
slight chance of precip as these features move through the area.

Guidance is in good agreement that the warm front will stall out in
central Wisconsin, but there is quite a bit of noise regarding how
much moisture will remain in place to the south of the front. Most
guidance keeps much of the moisture in the vicinity of the front, so
am expecting broken to occasionally scattered clouds in the southern
half of the CWA.

The warm front will stay to the north of the CWA though the night
before it begins to slowly creep southward tomorrow. As it moves
south, am expecting cloud coverage and precip chances to increase
into the afternoon. MU CAPE looks limited through at least the early
afternoon, so chose to leave thunder out until after 21z. Before the
front moves into our area, we can expect broken to scattered clouds
in our south along with moderately strong southerly winds. This will
result in very warm temperatures in the southern half of the CWA,
perhaps breaching 70 in some locations.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium to
High.

More widespread precipitation threat expected Friday night into
Saturday morning as approaching low pressure system still
undergoing minor strengthening.  Impressive layer Q-vector
convergence of 20 to 30 units brushes southern WI Fri night along
with layer frontogenetical forcing for a time.  Short term guidance
trending slightly south with axis of heavier precipitation
during this period.  Will continue highest pops Friday night
into Saturday morning, then trend slowly downward.  However
occasional light rain or drizzle will likely continue into
Sunday as low pressure weakens and gets nudged eastward later in
the weekend as weak convergence and low level deformation lingers
across the area along with plentiful low level moisture.  Fog threat
will increase as boundary layer winds weaken Saturday night into
Sunday.  Will continue to mention thunder threat as well Friday
night when strongest synoptic scale forcing is expected along with
nearness of southward moving boundary.

EXTENDED PERIOD...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Unsettled weather looks to continue through early next week.
Secondary weakening short wave over central Plains trending
toward more northerly track and may bring more light rain back
to southern WI on Monday and Monday night. Cool ENE surface wind
flow to continue so cooler by the lake for much of the period.  More
amplified 500H pattern sets up for several days as upstream long
wave trof moves across the western CONUS, and resulting large scale
ridging builds across the Great Lakes and upper midwest.  Around mid-
week, upstream trof wl get nudged eastward into the central CONUS,
eventually returning rain chances to the Great Lakes Thu into
Friday.  ECMWF and Canadian more bullish in spreading rain back into
srn WI on Thursday, while GFS holds off for 24 hours.  WPC Blend
has more confidence in faster solution so wl spread chance pops back
in for Thursday.  Warmer Low level thermal structure favors rain
for the expected precipitation events during the period.

AVIATION (21Z Taf Update)

Warm front continues to approach the area from the southwest.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed along
the front, along with some MVFR to occasionally IFR cigs. As the
front passes through the region in the late afternoon and evening,
most guidance has the cigs improving and the precipitation
dissipating. However, models do not currently have a good handle on
the complex unfolding situation, so uncertainty in the forecast is
high. It seems like a good bet the MVFR cigs will reach at least to
MSN as the front passes later this afternoon, and perhaps farther
east toward evening. Meanwhile, LLWS remains likely though the
overnight hours.

MARINE...

Winds should begin to diminish this evening as the pressure gradient
gradually weakens. Accordingly, SCA expiration looks to be on
schedule. After a brief period of weaker winds overnight and into
tomorrow morning, offshore winds will ramp back up in the early
afternoon, especially in the south. Another SCA may be needed for
this time.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for LMZ645-646.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for LMZ643-644.

&&

Update...Wood
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...BSH
Friday Night through Thursday...MBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
319 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-242030-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
319 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a small chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening. Small hail may accompany the thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and Friday
night as a warm front wavers across southern Wisconsin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

LMZ643>646-242030-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
319 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through this evening north of
North Point Light and into the early evening south of North Point
Light.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday night.

Northeast winds and waves will likely reach Small Craft Advisory
criteria Friday night and Saturday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
823 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             MUKWONAGO               42.87N 88.33W
03/23/2017  M0.25 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL COVERING THE DECK.

&&

BHAHN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
823 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

WIZ065-066-070-071-240200-
Walworth-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Racine-
823 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MILWAUKEE...
NORTHEASTERN WALWORTH...NORTHERN RACINE AND SOUTHEASTERN WAUKESHA
COUNTIES...

At 823 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Big Bend, or
over Wind Lake, moving east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Milwaukee, Racine, New Berlin, Greenfield, Oak Creek, Muskego, South
Milwaukee, Cudahy, Greendale, Hales Corners, Mukwonago, Sturtevant,
Wind Lake, Wind Point, Big Bend, Waterford North, Potter Lake,
Caledonia, Waterford and Eagle.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4276 8777 4271 8777 4269 8778 4284 8854
      4295 8828 4294 8785 4288 8785 4285 8783
      4278 8775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 277DEG 42KT 4285 8818

SPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
825 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             PALMYRA                 42.88N 88.59W
03/23/2017  M1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIA MEDIA CHAT.

&&

BHAHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
829 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HAIL             2 E MADISON             43.08N 89.34W
03/23/2017  M0.25 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO ONE-HALF INCH HAIL THAT LASTED 1-2 MINUTES AT
            INTERSECTION OF HOEPKER ROAD AND AMERICAN PARKWAY ON
            MADISONS EAST SIDE.

&&

BHAHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
841 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             PALMYRA                 42.88N 88.59W
03/23/2017  E1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          WI   PUBLIC

            1.5 INCH DIAMETER HAIL IN DOWNTOWN PALMYRA. VIA TWITTER.

&&

BHAHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
843 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HAIL             1 S MUKWONAGO           42.85N 88.33W
03/23/2017  E0.88 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT INTERSECTION OF I-43 AND HWY. 83. VIA
            TWITTER.

&&

BHAHN