Red Flag Warning 33, NWS Medford, OR

934 
WWUS86 KMFR 230559
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1059 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...Scattered thunderstorms expected again Wednesday afternoon...

.Thunderstorm coverage has tapered to isolated. But, scattered 
thunderstorms are expected to develop again Wednesday afternoon 
with a focus over Lake and Modoc Counties...fire weather zones 
625 and eastern 624 in Oregon and 285 in California.

CAZ285-ORZ624-625-231800-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0032.000000T0000Z-170823T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0033.170823T2000Z-170824T0300Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern
Lake and Western Harney Counties-
1059 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 285...624 AND 625...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285...
624 AND 625...

* Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in
  new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to 
  fire spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could 
  be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. Some 
  thunderstorms may see heavy rain with possible flash 
  flooding, but numerous strikes are expected outside of the 
  heavy rain cores.

* Affected area by the red flag warning: - In northern CA Fire
  Zone 285. - In southern OR Fire Zones today...624...western 
  625. On Wednesday 625 and eastern 624. 

* Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are likely to continue
  into tonight. The area of thunderstorms will shift east and
  increase again on Wednesday afternoon and evening, with 
  scattered thunderstorms expected mostly in California fire zone 
  285, and Oregon fire zones 625 and eastern 624.

* Outflow winds: Gusty and erratic winds of 30 to 40 mph are
  possible from stronger thunderstorms.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause 
  numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds 
  could also create extreme fire growth potential.

&&

$$

CAZ280>282-284-ORZ621-623-230700-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0032.000000T0000Z-170823T0600Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta-
Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades-
1059 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...
281...282...284...621 AND 623...

The red flag warning will expire at 11 PM PDT. Thunderstorm
activity has tapered to isolated coverage from the Cascades
eastward.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/medford

054 
WWUS86 KMFR 230850
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
150 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...Scattered thunderstorms expected again this afternoon into this
evening...

.Showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will linger this 
morning, then scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop 
again this afternoon and continue into this evening. The focus for
scattered thunderstorms will be over eastern Klamath, all of Lake
and northeast Modoc Counties...fire weather zones 625 and eastern
624 in Oregon and 285 in California.

CAZ285-ORZ624-625-240300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0033.170823T2000Z-170824T0300Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern
Lake and Western Harney Counties-
150 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285...624 AND 625...

* Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in 
  new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to 
  fire spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could 
  be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. Some 
  thunderstorms may see heavy rain with possible flash 
  flooding, but numerous strikes are expected outside of the 
  heavy rain cores.

* Affected area by the red flag warning: 
- In northern CA Fire Zone northeast and east 285. 
- In southern OR Fire Zones 625 and eastern 624.

* Thunderstorms: An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible this
  morning. Thunderstorms will shift east and increase this 
  afternoon and evening, with scattered thunderstorms expected 
  mostly in California fire zone 285, and Oregon fire zones 625 
  and eastern 624.

* Outflow winds: Gusty and erratic winds of 30 to 40 mph are 
  possible from stronger thunderstorms.


* View the hazard area in detail at: 
  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered
thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where
many fire starts may occur in a short period of time.

&&

$$

Petrucelli 

Visit us at www.weather.gov/medford

325 
WWUS86 KMFR 232130
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
230 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and continue 
into this evening. The focus for scattered thunderstorms will be 
over eastern Klamath, all of Lake and northeast Modoc 
Counties...fire weather zones 625 and eastern 624 in Oregon and 285
in California. 

CAZ285-ORZ624-625-240300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-170824T0300Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
230 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285...
624 AND 625...

* Impacts:  Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in
new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire
spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be
overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: In northern California northeastern fire zone 285.
  In southern Oregon fire zone 625 and eastern fire zone 624. 

* Outflow winds: Gusty and erratic at 30 to 40 mph possible near
  thunderstorms. 

* View the hazard area in detail at:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

461 
WWUS86 KMFR 240243
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
743 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

CAZ285-ORZ624-625-240345-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-170824T0300Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern
Lake and Western Harney Counties-
743 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY
FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285...624 AND 625...

The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning. Isolated thunderstorms have diminished in the
area with activity now focused in eastern Oregon.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
916 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Main impacts expected today include abundant
lightning on dry fuels, resulting in new fire starts, heavy smoke
and poor air quality affecting mostly the Cascades and westward
today, and the potential for heavy rain with some of today's
storms, bringing the chance for flash flooding over some of the
area's wildfire burn scars.

Latest hourly model guidance maintains thunderstorm chances for
portions of the forecast area today, focused mainly over Northern
California, with the potential of nocturnal storms as shortwave
energy progresses south to north into Oregon tonight. Latest model
trends show a significant eastward push of the greatest
instability Wednesday, and we'll likely be trimming western
portions of thunderstorm areas in the forecast for tomorrow.

Smoke modeling suggests heavy smoke continuing for most areas
along and west of the Cascades today, and then northwest winds
this afternoon should carry heavier smoke into areas east of the
Cascades late this afternoon. We've lowered forecast temperatures
today by several degrees mainly west of the Cascades where the
heaviest smoke is.

We'll focus today on thunderstorm threat and its impact on
wildfires...and the expected evolution of the heaviest smoke in
our forecast area.

Please see the previous discussion below for more details on this
week's weather, and its impact on area wildfires.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z TAF CYCLE...Onshore flow is keeping LIFR/IFR
cigs/vis at the coast and just offshore. The TAF at North Bend shows
LIFR/IFR conditions prevailing through the period.  Elsewhere smoke
from wildfire blankets southern Oregon and this is affecting
visibility at most terminals. We are leaning heavily toward
smoke/particulate trajectory forecast and base the lowering of
visibility to MVFR/IFR based on particulate concentration at various
hours. High Res models show NW wind coming off the Cascades this
afternoon bringing smoke from wildfire there and this should lead to
MVFR visibility at Klamath Falls. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening with
Klamath Falls at greater risk for thunderstorms near or over the
terminal. -Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Tuesday, 22 August 2017...Low
pressure will move inland today, and north winds will continue to
decrease through the morning. Low pressure will deepen again on the
southern coast Wednesday with north winds increasing again towards
to the end of the week. -Schaaf/Sven

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 AM PDT Tuesday, 21 August 2017...The
main concern will be thunderstorms from this afternoon through
tonight. Thunderstorm chances look good for this afternoon and
evening mainly in northern California and east of the Cascades.
Steering winds could carry a few of these storms into portions of
the westside, including the Rogue and Illinois Valley, but they
should be more isolated. While wetting rainfall will occur with some
storms, lightning outside the storm cores on dry to very dry fuels
is expected to lead to many new fire starts. Also keep in mind the
potential for gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms. The
coverage area for the Red Flag Warning looks good and no changes
were made. Also did not make any changes to the coverage area of the
Fire Weather Watch on Wednesday. However, drier air arriving from
the west with the best chance for thunderstorms shifting east of the
Cascades, Wednesday afternoon, then mainly confined to Lake County
Wednesday evening. Therefore it's possible the coverage area will
have to be shrunk down. We'll let later shifts reevaluate this.

Thursday will be the coolest day of the week, but winds aloft will
be stronger, some of which could mix down near the surface,
especially east of the Cascades. A rapid warm up is expected Friday
through the weekend. At the same time a thermal trough will develop
along the coast, so we could be dealing with gusty northeast to east
winds near and at the ridges with moderate to possibly poor
overnight recoveries in Fire zones 618, 619 and western 280. It
remains to be seen if recoveries will be as low as they were this
past weekend, but it's something that will need to be monitored.
-Petrucelli

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...The main focus today will be thunderstorms this
afternoon into this evening and possibly overnight tonight. The
latest water vapor image shows some of that moisture starting to
creep up into our area. The upper low in central California will
send moisture, instability and trigger for thunderstorm development
into our area this afternoon through this evening. Right now, most
of the action should be in northern California and Cascades
eastward. However steering winds could push some of these storms
into portions of the westside valleys, including the Rogue and
Illinois Valley. The models suggest PW values will increase today,
therefore there's a chance for wetting storms. Smoke will certainly
be a factor that could inhibit thunderstorm formation in some areas,
primarily extreme Western Siskiyou County, but potentially into the
Cascades too.

The next concern, not only today, but tomorrow will be areas of
smoke which will continue to impact most of the forecast area.
Sources of the smoke vary, for example smoke in Medford will likely
come from the Siskiyou County fires, fires in Western Jackson and
Josephine Counties, and the Chetco Bar fire in Curry County. Not
knowing how much smoke will be produced from fires in the next
several days, we have maintained smoke in the forecast for many of
the areas that are seeing smoke today. We are maintaining an Air
Quality Alert for most areas along and west of the Cascades...and
the Klamath Falls area.

Also could not rule nocturnal storms Tuesday night east of the
Cascades. The models are in pretty good agreement showing enough
instability, moisture and sufficient trigger for thunderstorms to
persist into Tuesday night. They lay tend to be more isolated as we
lose daytime heating, but the threat still exist.

On Wednesday the focus for thunderstorms will shift east of the
Cascades. A southwest flow will set up as an upper trough approaches
Vancouver Island which should push the focus for storms east. Drier
and stable air mass will push in west of the Cascades and western
Siskiyou County bringing an end to thunderstorm chances. Therefore
have trimmed back the coverage of storms Wednesday. The threat for
storms shifts further east Wednesday evening and should be mainly
confined to Lake County.

A weak upper trough with a stable southwest flow aloft will move
into the area bringing dry and cooler weather on Thursday. This will
probably be the coolest day of the forecast period, then significant
warming is in the cards Friday through the weekend. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for ORZ621-623>625.
     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for ORZ623>625.
     Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM PDT this afternoon through this
     evening for ORZ028.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for CAZ280>282-284-285.
     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for CAZ280-281-284-285.
     Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM PDT this afternoon through this
     evening for CAZ080-084-085.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

NSK/DW/MAP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
245 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2017

CAZ080>083-222215-
Central Siskiyou County-North Central and Southeast Siskiyou
County-South Central Siskiyou County-Western Siskiyou County-
245 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SISKIYOU
   COUNTY...

At 244 PM PDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Callahan, or
24 miles northwest of Trinity Center, moving north at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Etna, Edgewood, Carrick, Callahan.

* This includes the following highways...
   Highway 3 in California between mile markers 1 and 26.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4130 12334 4181 12239 4148 12209 4128 12251
      4132 12248 4137 12257 4133 12259 4133 12265
      4129 12265 4127 12271 4125 12272 4123 12278
      4120 12280 4120 12289 4118 12293 4118 12296
      4115 12295 4111 12297 4107 12294 4103 12302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 164DEG 6KT 4131 12289

STOCKTON