Alert archive / Oregon / High Wind Warnings in 2017
High Wind Warning 17, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this high wind warning at Nov 14, 2017, 2:00 PM PST for Klamath County, Lake County, Oregon; Modoc County, Siskiyou County, California. It took effect at Nov 15, 2017, 2:18 AM PST. It was in force for 23 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 14, 2017, 2:00 PM PST (22:00 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 15, 2017, 2:18 AM PST
- Expired
- Nov 16, 2017, 1:00 AM PST
- In force
- 23 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Modoc County, CA, Siskiyou County, CA, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 8 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -24 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 777 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 62 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 16 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 133 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
595 WWUS76 KMFR 142200 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 200 PM PST Tue Nov 14 2017 ...Strong south winds expected Wednesday... .Strong south winds are likely ahead of a strong frontal system that will move through area Wednesday. The strongest winds are expected over the Shasta Valley and over the higher terrain east of the Cascades. Gusty south winds are also expected over portions of the Rogue Valley and lower elevations east of the Cascades. CAZ085-ORZ030-031-151000- /O.UPG.KMFR.HW.A.0018.171115T1800Z-171116T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.HW.W.0017.171115T1800Z-171116T0900Z/ /O.EXB.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.171115T1800Z-171116T0900Z/ Modoc County- Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County- Central and Eastern Lake County- Including the cities of Alturas, Canby, Likely, Beatty, Bly, Sprague River, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls 200 PM PST Tue Nov 14 2017 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a High Wind Warning...which is in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM PST Thursday. A Wind Advisory has also been issued. This Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM PST Thursday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect. * Winds...In the warning area southeast 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. In the advisory area...30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. * Timing...Late morning through late evening. * Locations in the warning include...Summer Lake, Paisley, Valley Falls, Lakeview, Winter Rim and Cedar Pass. * Locations in the advisory include...Sprague River, Bly, Adel and Alturas. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Highway 395 and Highway 31 between Paisley and Silver Lake. Unsecured objects may be blown around. Tree damage and power outages are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. && $$ CAZ081-151000- /O.UPG.KMFR.HW.A.0018.171115T1200Z-171116T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.HW.W.0017.171115T1200Z-171116T0300Z/ Central Siskiyou County- Including the city of Weed 200 PM PST Tue Nov 14 2017 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a High Wind Warning...which is in effect from 4 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect. * Winds...Southeast 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. * Timing...From around sunrise until sundown. * Locations include...Much of the Shasta Valley, but the strongest winds will be near Weed. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Interstate-5 from Weed to Grenada. Unsecured objects may be blown around. Tree damage and power outages are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. && $$ CAZ084-ORZ029-151000- /O.EXB.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.171115T1800Z-171116T0900Z/ Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin- Including the city of Tulelake 200 PM PST Tue Nov 14 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Wind Advisory...which is in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM PST Thursday. * Winds...30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. * Timing...Late morning through late evening. * Locations include...Bonanza, Newell, and Tulelake. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Highway 140 east of Klamath Falls, and on Highway 139. Unsecured objects may be blown around. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 25 to 39 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ ORZ026-151000- /O.EXT.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.171115T1500Z-171115T2100Z/ Jackson County- Including the cities of Medford and Ashland 200 PM PST Tue Nov 14 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY... * Winds...Southeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. * Timing...Late tonight through mid day Wednesday. * Locations include...Ashland to Talent after midnight tonight. Then spreading from Talent to around Medford after daybreak Wednesday. * Impacts...Driving will become difficult on area roadways including Interstate-5 between Ashland and Medford. Unsecured objects may be blown around, and minor tree damage is possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 25 to 39 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ Stavish
4 follow-up statements
147 WWUS76 KMFR 151018 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 218 AM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 CAZ081-160000- /O.EXT.KMFR.HW.W.0017.171115T1018Z-171116T0300Z/ Central Siskiyou County- Including the city of Weed 218 AM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING... * Winds...Southeast 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. * Locations include...Much of the Shasta Valley, but the strongest winds will be near Weed. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Interstate-5 from Weed to Grenada. Unsecured objects may be blown around. Tree damage and power outages are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. && $$ CAZ085-ORZ030-031-160000- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0017.171115T1800Z-171116T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.171115T1800Z-171116T0900Z/ Modoc County- Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County- Central and Eastern Lake County- Including the cities of Alturas, Canby, Likely, Beatty, Bly, Sprague River, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls 218 AM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY... * Winds...In the warning area southeast 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. In the advisory area...30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. * Timing...Late morning through late evening. * Locations in the warning include...Summer Lake, Paisley, Valley Falls, Lakeview, Winter Rim and Cedar Pass. * Locations in the advisory include...Sprague River, Bly, Adel and Alturas. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Highway 395 and Highway 31 between Paisley and Silver Lake. Unsecured objects may be blown around. Tree damage and power outages are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. && $$ ORZ026-152100- /O.EXT.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.171115T1018Z-171115T2100Z/ Jackson County- Including the cities of Medford and Ashland 218 AM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... * Winds...Southeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. * Timing...Winds will increase near Ashland this morning then spread into the Medford area by late morning. * Locations include...Ashland, Talent, Phoenix, Medford. * Impacts...Driving will become difficult on area roadways including Interstate-5 between Ashland and Medford. Unsecured objects may be blown around, and minor tree damage is possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 25 to 39 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ CAZ084-ORZ029-160000- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.171115T1800Z-171116T0900Z/ Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin- Including the city of Tulelake 218 AM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY... * Winds...30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. * Timing...Late morning through late evening. * Locations include...Bonanza, Newell, and Tulelake. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Highway 140 east of Klamath Falls, and on Highway 139. Unsecured objects may be blown around. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 25 to 39 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$
390 WWUS76 KMFR 151723 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 923 AM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 CAZ081-160200- /O.CAN.KMFR.HW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-171116T0300Z/ /O.EXB.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.171115T1723Z-171116T0600Z/ Central Siskiyou County- Including the city of Weed 923 AM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Wind Advisory...which is in effect until 10 PM PST this evening. The High Wind Warning has been cancelled. * Winds...South to southeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. * Timing...Through late this evening. * Locations include...Weed. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Interstate 5 from Weed to Grenada. Unsecured objects may be blown around. Unsecured objects may be blown away. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ CAZ085-ORZ030-031-160200- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0017.171115T1800Z-171116T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.171115T1800Z-171116T0900Z/ Modoc County- Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County- Central and Eastern Lake County- Including the cities of Alturas, Canby, Likely, Beatty, Bly, Sprague River, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls 923 AM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY... * Winds...In the warning area south to southwest 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. In the advisory area...south to southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. * Timing...Through late this evening. * Locations in the warning include...Summer Lake, Paisley, Valley Falls, Lakeview, Winter Rim and Cedar Pass. * Locations in the advisory include...Sprague River, Bly, Adel and Alturas. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Highway 395 and Highway 31 between Paisley and Silver Lake. Unsecured objects may be blown around. Tree damage and power outages are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. && $$ ORZ026-160200- /O.EXT.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-171116T0200Z/ Jackson County- Including the cities of Medford and Ashland 923 AM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING... * Winds...Southeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. * Timing...Through early this evening. * Locations include...Ashland, Talent, Phoenix, and likely spreading into Medford this afternoon. * Impacts...Driving may be difficult on area roadways including Interstate 5 between Ashland and Medford. Unsecured objects may be blown around, and minor tree damage is possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 25 to 39 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ CAZ084-ORZ029-160200- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.171115T1800Z-171116T0900Z/ Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin- Including the city of Tulelake 923 AM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY... * Winds...South to southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. * Timing...Through late this evening. * Locations include...Bonanza, Newell, and Tulelake. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Highway 140 east of Klamath Falls, and on Highway 139. Unsecured objects may be blown around. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$
422 WWUS76 KMFR 152341 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 341 PM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ORZ026-160045- /O.CAN.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-171116T0200Z/ Jackson County- 341 PM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the Wind Advisory. Southeast winds will continue 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph through early this evening at the south end of the Rogue Valley near Ashland, but advisory level winds are no longer expected. $$ CAZ085-ORZ030-031-160600- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-171116T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-171116T0900Z/ Modoc County- Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County- Central and Eastern Lake County- Including the cities of Alturas, Canby, Likely, Beatty, Bly, Sprague River, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls 341 PM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY... * Winds...In the warning area south to southwest 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. In the advisory area...south to southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. * Timing...Through late this evening. * Locations in the warning include...Summer Lake, Paisley, Valley Falls, Lakeview, Winter Rim and Cedar Pass. * Locations in the advisory include...Sprague River, Bly, Adel and Alturas. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Highway 395 and Highway 31 between Paisley and Silver Lake. Unsecured objects may be blown around. Tree damage and power outages are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. && $$ CAZ084-ORZ029-160600- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-171116T0900Z/ Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin- Including the city of Tulelake 341 PM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY... * Winds...South to southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. * Timing...Through late this evening. * Locations include...Bonanza, Newell, and Tulelake. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Highway 140 east of Klamath Falls, and on Highway 139. Unsecured objects may be blown around. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ CAZ081-160600- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-171116T0600Z/ Central Siskiyou County- Including the city of Weed 341 PM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... * Winds...South to southeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. * Timing...Through late this evening. * Locations include...Weed. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Interstate 5 from Weed to Grenada. Unsecured objects may be blown around. Unsecured objects may be blown away. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$
396 WWUS76 KMFR 160602 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 1002 PM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 CAZ081-160715- /O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-171116T0600Z/ Central Siskiyou County- Including the city of Weed 1002 PM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... $$ CAZ085-ORZ030-031-160900- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-171116T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-171116T0900Z/ Modoc County- Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County- Central and Eastern Lake County- Including the cities of Alturas, Canby, Likely, Beatty, Bly, Sprague River, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls 1002 PM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY... * Winds...In the warning area south to southwest 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. In the advisory area...south to southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. * Timing...Through late this evening. * Locations in the warning include...Summer Lake, Paisley, Valley Falls, Lakeview, Winter Rim and Cedar Pass. * Locations in the advisory include...Sprague River, Bly, Adel and Alturas. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Highway 395 and Highway 31 between Paisley and Silver Lake. Unsecured objects may be blown around. Tree damage and power outages are possible. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. && $$ CAZ084-ORZ029-160900- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-171116T0900Z/ Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin- Including the city of Tulelake 1002 PM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY... * Winds...South to southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. * Timing...Through late this evening. * Locations include...Bonanza, Newell, and Tulelake. * Impacts...Travel will be difficult on area roadways including Highway 140 east of Klamath Falls, and on Highway 139. Unsecured objects may be blown around. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ Stockton
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Nov 14, 8:43 AM PST, 5 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 14, 8:43 AM PST, 5 hours 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
843 AM PST Tue Nov 14 2017
.DISCUSSION...No major updates this morning. A small area of fog
is lingering in portions of the Rogue Valley, and should lift later
this morning. A mostly dry day is on tap for the forecast area
today, but this will change tomorrow as a strong front moves into
the area and brings moderate to heavy precipitation, along with
winds. Snow levels will lower behind the front Wednesday night.
Please see the previous discussion below for details on the
upcoming weather system and expected impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...14/12Z TAF CYCLE...Marginal stability this morning
will lead to mainly VFR conditions, though isolated areas of MVFR
are possible in the morning hours. Partial terrain obscurations
will also occur across most mountain areas. Southeast winds are
expected at most locations this morning, and then are likely to
turn south to southwest this afternoon into the evening. Showers
will be possible along the coast today, especially later in the
day, and rain is expected along and near the coast beginning
around 06z. MVFR conditions are expected after 06Z along portions
of the coast. Terrain obscurations are expected in the mountains
this afternoon and evening. Increasing winds aloft today and
especially tonight into Wed morning are likely to result in
turbulence. Wind shear is possible along and near the coast after
00Z, especially in areas where surface winds fail to increase due
to terrain blocking. BTL
&&
.MARINE...Updated 400 AM PST Tuesday 14 November 2017...Winds
decreased briefly last night, but they will increase again today as
a frontal system approaches. South winds are expected to reach gales
by this afternoon and continue through Wednesday. We may even see
some storm force gusts just prior to the frontal passage Wednesday
morning. Corresponding seas will be very steep due to a combination
of swell and building wind wave through this afternoon the primarily
from wind waves tonight until the front passes tomorrow. Winds
become west and diminish behind the front later Wednesday, but seas
will likely remain high through Thursday. The active pattern will
continue for the foreseeable future, with more fronts possible over
the next 7 to 10 days. Expect conditions to remain unsettled and
seas to remain elevated through at least the weekend. -BPN/Wright
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 454 AM PST Tue Nov 14 2017/
SHORT TERM...A lot of updates were made in the short term,
primarily related to wind and snow headlines. A strong frontal
system will approach today and then move through tomorrow,
bringing heavy rain to the coast, snow to the mountains, and wind
to some of the valleys. Complicating the forecast considerably is
the possibility of deepening low pressure moving along the front
as it moves onshore tomorrow. The problems with this are two-fold:
1. the passage of low pressure will strengthen pressure gradients
south of its path and weaken them to its north (which affects the
wind forecast), and 2. very heavy precipitation (both valley rain
and mountain snow) is likely near the low which may sap some of
the moisture from locations away from the low. All that said, the
possibility of low pressure both increases the chance of
significant wind and precipitation in some places and lessens it
in others. At the moment, guidance has the low moving onshore
somewhere between Cape Mendocino and Brookings Wednesday afternoon
and then scoots it off to the northeast across southwest Oregon
Wednesday night. I'll break this short term discussion into the
two most important parts, wind and snow.
Wind: High resolution guidance shows strong winds in the Shasta
Valley Wednesday, and forecast MFR-RDD gradients of -6 mb and
strong winds aloft support the idea. Models also show 700 mb winds
peaking at 70-75 knots briefly across the east side Wednesday
evening, and this is certainly sufficient for high wind there.
Low pressure could certainly disrupt the gradients and short-
circuit winds in the Shasta Valley. Nevertheless, the potential is
high enough to warrant high wind watches in both locations, and
those have been issued. Gradients are also tight enough to bring
winds into the Rogue Valley, and model soundings do show a low
level inversion which tends to force winds to funnel through the
terrain. Also of note, SREF plume diagrams show similar winds to
Sunday evening in the Rogue Valley, which you may remember were
quite breezy. We don't think winds will be high enough to warrant
a high wind watch, but they also aren't nothing, so a wind
advisory was issued for the Rogue Valley.
Snow: The low pressure may also affect snowfall in the mountains
with higher amounts near and north of the low and lesser amounts
away from it. Guidance still shows a significant burst of snow
Wednesday afternoon and evening from the Siskiyous north through
the Cascades, and it is these potentially high snowfall rates that
are the main driver of the winter storm watch that was issued.
While overall amounts are not expected to be anything unusual for
November, most of it could come in a short time. The good thing is
that snow levels will be fairly high, 5500 feet or so, and this
keeps snow impacts above I-5 and highway 140 (the two most heavily
traveled mountain routes through our area).
The front moves inland Wednesday night and then east of us
Thursday. At this point, most of us are left with showers of no
particular significance. However, as the upper trough arrives,
colder air moves in, and snow levels lower, precipitation becomes
concentrated over the Cascades. As a result, we could see another
period of heavy snow in the Cascades Thursday afternoon and
evening, and this one may very well affect I-5 and highway 140.
That said, Siskiyou Summit is often blocked from the heaviest snow
in this kind of pattern, but we will probably see at least some
snow down to I-5 Thursday afternoon through night. -Wright
LONG TERM...Fri (11/17) through Mon (11/20)...Models are out of
phase for Friday with the GFS building a short term but large
ridge over the Pacific NW; whereas, the ECMWF has a weak short
wave ridging in NW flow. We've kept rain chance to the coast,
Umpqua Basin and part of Josephine county in a nod to the ECMWF
solution. A similar discrepancy extends into Saturday. As a
result, we have lowered rain chance for Saturday and keep them
mainly from the Cascades west.
The models come into good agreement that a wave of subtropical
moisture will move over us from the southwest during the latter
part of next weekend. If this is correct, it could bring a batch
of hefty precipitation and high snow levels to our area. Ensemble
IVT moisture transport shows a decent amount on Sunday and Monday,
but it also shows a lesser amount of moisture beyond Monday for
most of next week. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
for ORZ030-031.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ026.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening above 5500 feet in the for ORZ028.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening above 5500 feet in the for ORZ027.
CA...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
for CAZ085.
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening
above 5500 feet in the for CAZ080.
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for
CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Wednesday for
PZZ356-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for
PZZ350-356-370.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Wednesday for
PZZ350-370.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ376.
NSK/TRW/BTLIn the hours before
Local storm report, Nov 14, 10:37 AM PST, 3 hours 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1037 AM PST TUE NOV 14 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1034 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SE SELMA 42.23N 123.52W
11/14/2017 M1.02 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
9AM-9AM. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN
EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.
&&
SBNThe office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 3:38 AM PST | High Wind Watch | MFR | Klamath, Lake | 10 hr |
| Nov 14, 3:38 AM PST | Wind Advisory | MFR | Jackson, Klamath, Lake | 45 hr |
| Nov 14, 3:54 AM PST | Winter Storm Watch | MFR | Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath | 10 hr |
| Nov 14, 2:07 PM PST | Small Craft Advisory | MFR | 11 hr | |
| Nov 14, 2:09 PM PST | Winter Storm Warning | MFR | Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath | 32 hr |
| Nov 14, 2:09 PM PST | Winter Weather Advisory | MFR | Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, Lake | 65 hr |
Nearby
High Wind Warnings in Oregon, 2017High Wind Warnings in California, 2017Every high wind warning in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.