Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
309 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Quite a bit more convection on radar than we expected this time
yesterday. Summertime convection is especially difficult to
forecast as you are typically dealing with subtle
features/boundaries and its nearly always at least marginally
unstable. Anyway we should see the complex of storms approaching
East Arkansas to continue into and across the Midsouth over the
next several hours. The HRRR seems to have had a pretty good
Handel on the storms so far today and looks to be on track for
the approaching storms. However...it may be tracking the storms a
bit more to the Northeast than the radar is currently showing.
Based on its current track and speed this would take the line of
storms across the Mississippi River around 5-6 pm and likely
approaching the Tennessee River/Alabama state line around Sunset.
It should gradually weaken as it moves East into a less unstable
airmass. Short term guidance as well as the Storm Predictions day
1 outlook also support a weakening trend. Hopefully it will move
out of the area quick enough to not interrupt any Independence
day fireworks displays.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop
after midnight...continuing through the day tomorrow. In fact, we
have enhanced rain chances in the forecast day and night across
all of the Midsouth through Thursday. A weak upper level low and
associated trough in place will result in steep lapse rates and
daytime heating will enhance instability. Dew points will remain
in the low 70s. The low will slowly fill and the trough will
gradually shift to the Northeast through Midweek. The threat of
strong or severe thunderstorms should decrease with time. High
temperatures will likely remain slightly below normal through
midweek.

By Friday surface high pressure will build in from the West and
strong Northwest flow will return to the Midsouth. High temperatures
will rebound a bit after midweek...to near 90 with near normal
temperatures, in the low 90s returning next weekend. Widespread
organized thunderstorms are not expected Friday through next
weekend. However, as temperatures turn warmer, afternoon pop-up
storms will become more likely.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Slow moving disturbance crossing the Ozarks will likely bring
convection to the sites this period with short range guidance
hinting at the 04/20Z-05/02Z time frame...becoming more isolated
through the overnight. Outside of convection conditions will be
VFR with the potential for IFR/MVFR stratus developing near
sunrise. Light winds with a southerly component...will be more
variable in direction with higher speeds during storms.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
211 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-052115-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
211 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms along and west
of the Mississippi River this afternoon into tonight. Damaging
winds will be the primary threat for any thunderstorms that reach
severe limits. Heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the
entire Mid-South on Wednesday. Damaging winds will be the primary
threat for any thunderstorms that reach severe limits. Heavy
rainfall will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed occasionally today through
Wednesday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
223 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

ARZ035-048-042000-
St. Francis AR-Cross AR-
223 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR...

St. Francis County in eastern Arkansas...
Southeastern Cross County in eastern Arkansas...

At 223 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Forrest City,
moving east at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in St. Francis and southeastern Cross Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3491 9096 3515 9091 3523 9051 3491 9051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 252DEG 36KT 3501 9083

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

ARZ035-048-042030-
St. Francis AR-Cross AR-
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR...

Central St. Francis County in eastern Arkansas...
Southeastern Cross County in eastern Arkansas...

At 256 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Madison, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in central St. Francis and southeastern Cross Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3527 9074 3527 9051 3525 9051 3491 9061
      3491 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 227DEG 28KT 3506 9071

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
319 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

ARZ035-048-042100-
St. Francis AR-Cross AR-
319 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR...

Western St. Francis County in eastern Arkansas...
Western Cross County in eastern Arkansas...

At 319 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near McCrory, or 12
miles east of Augusta, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in western St. Francis and western Cross Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3500 9115 3500 9105 3544 9104 3545 9077
      3491 9089 3491 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 226DEG 22KT 3523 9114

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
323 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

ARZ035-036-048-042115-
St. Francis AR-Cross AR-Crittenden AR-
323 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR...

Eastern St. Francis County in eastern Arkansas...
Southeastern Cross County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas...

At 323 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over New Home, or 7
miles east of Madison, moving east at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in eastern St. Francis...southeastern Cross and southwestern
Crittenden Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3521 9061 3521 9040 3490 9040 3490 9075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 248DEG 15KT 3503 9060