Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
920 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.UPDATE...

Band of showers has developed from Savannah, Tennessee to
Marianna, Arkansas while light showers and drizzle continues over
Northeast Mississippi. Do not know if this band will move much
during the overnight period. Models show some elevated instability
developing thus would not be surprised to see some rumbles of
thunder occurring during the early morning hours. Have bumped up
POPS for areas around this band of showers to account for some
meandering of the line. Rest of the forecast looks good as
temperatures will remain mild thanks to the southerly winds.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /issued 312 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017/

Skies remain mostly cloudy across the Mid-South this afternoon
with strong southerly winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
Temperatures as of 3 PM range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s,
resulting in just a smidgen of instability across the region.
Aloft, a strong upper-level cyclone is lifting northeast into the
Great Lakes as a strong upper-tropospheric jet streak noses in
from the west. A surface cold front was moving east across the
Midwest, extending from an area of low pressure over WI, south
across MO into north TX. A stronger cold front behind the initial
boundary will overtake the initial feature, moving into the
northern portion of the CWA tonight.

Scattered showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, are expected
this evening. The greatest rain chances will be south of I-40, but
the most favorable area for thunderstorms will be to the north,
closer to the stronger dynamics. This front will stall tonight,
likely north of I-40, lifting back to the north as a warm front by
sunrise. As surface pressures fall over the Plains, the tightening
gradient will support gusty south winds once again tomorrow. Wind
speeds will not be as strong as today, generally in the 10-20 mph
range, but we'll see moisture continue to stream northward across
the CWA. Additional showers are likely, especially along and north
of the warm front. This means the greatest rain chances on
Wednesday are likely early in the day, with less focused lift
during the afternoon.

South winds will continue through most of the day Thursday. This
will keep overnight low temperatures well above normal. In fact,
many areas are forecast to remain above 60 degrees Thursday
morning, well above normal highs for mid January. Strong warm
advection will push temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s
by Thursday. There should be adequate instability to support
showers and thunderstorms along a cold front that is progged to
move in from the north during the afternoon hours. There is't
much synoptic scale forcing and neither instability nor
hodographs look too impressive. This should limit the severe
weather potential.

Cold air moves into the CWA for Friday, but isn't expected to stay
long. Temperatures Friday afternoon may remain in the 40s for the
northern counties, but should warm into the 60s farther south.
This cold front is forecast to stall and lift back north across
the area as a warm front Friday night into Saturday. While in the
warm sector over the weekend, PoPs will remain muted given the
lack of any defined surface boundaries or strong forcing aloft.
However, rain chances will be on the increase early next week as a
southern stream trough moves across the southwest CONUS, lifting
northeast into the Ohio Valley. There remain some rather
significant differences regarding how the GFS and ECMWF phase this
trough with the polar stream, so we'll have to keep an eye on how
this system evolves.

Johnson

&&

.AVIATION...

Cold front approaching the region will stall from NW Tennessee into
Eastern Arkansas tonight. This boundary will eventually turn back
as a warm front early Wednesday. Mainly VFR conds prevail this
evening. North of where the front stalls...KJBR...LIFR conds will
likely develop with fog...low clouds and possibly drizzle. To the
south of the stalled boundary expect mainly IFR conditions in low
clouds to develop later tonight. Showers are possible near KTUP
this evening spreading back north early Wednesday as the warm
front lifts north. Winds will be diminishing early in the period
and then increasing again after the warm front lifts back
north...becoming quite gusty by later Wednesday afternoon.

SJM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
747 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-111300-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
747 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRM