Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

368 
WWUS84 KMAF 250203
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
903 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

.Winds have diminished across the area this evening, and with the
loss of heating, relative humidity has climbed above critical
levels. Thus, the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire.

NMZ114-115-TXZ050-057>062-067>069-074-075-079>082-258-250315-
/O.EXP.KMAF.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170325T0200Z/
Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains-Andrews-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-
Ward-Crane-Upton-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-
Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-Big Bend Area-Terrell-
903 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 /803 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

Winds have decreased and relative humidity values have climbed
above critical levels. Thus, the warning has been allowed to
expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except in localized
BLDU. WV imagery shows the upper trough over the Texas/OK
Panhandles, leaving all terminals in subsidence on the backside
today. As a result, windy conditions will continue, w/westerlies
veering to NW, and beginning to diminish after 00Z Fri. A few high
clouds will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The strong mid level low that brought high winds across the area
yesterday will continue to move east through the south-central plains
today. A strong mid-level jet continues to wrap around the base
of the trough. These strong upper level winds should be allowed to
mix down with subsidence on the back side of the trough. We
should see another windy day for the majority of the area, though
not quite as windy as yesterday. Winds should be strong enough for
a Wind Advisory for much of West Texas and southeast New Mexico
except in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning will
remain in effect. The Pacific front will continue to push east and
behind it slightly cooler will reside, which will bring high
temperatures down into 70s for today. The dry air to the west will
also be pushed further east and another fire weather day is in
store with the gusty winds expected. See Fire Weather Discussion
below.

By Friday night, the trough will further east and sent a
front south into the area. This will be a dry front as all the
moisture will be pushed east. A weak ridge will build over the
area on Saturday and make for a rather pleasant day before a
shortwave trough moves through the Texas Panhandle. Strong
westerly winds will likely contribute to another windy day on
Sunday. Yet another front will move south into the area on the
backside of the trough and bring only a slight cool down again to
start the week.

The train of upper level troughs will continue next week. The
first one will swing through the south-central Rockies bringing
some unsettled weather with it. There will be chances for rain
across much of the area from Tuesday to Thursday. Heading into
next weekend the second upper trough looks to take a similar path
as the previous and could continue the streak of active weather.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/OK
Panhandles, which will leave West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in
subsidence on the backside of the trough later today.  Thus, 20'
westerly winds will veer to the NW, generally increasing to the NE,
closer to the base of the exiting trough.  The GFS once again mixes
deeper than the NAM, performed well for yesterday's event, and is
the preferred model for today.  That said, forecast soundings mix to
an average of 650mb, which will easily result in critical 20' winds
area-wide.  Currently, the dryline extends from KSNK SW to the Big
Bend Area, and is forecast to keep trucking eastward today.  This is
allowing for poor recovery overnight, and RH will stay low Fri in
continued W-NW flow.  The only area in question is the NE zones,
where RH may stay just above criteria this afternoon.  Otherwise, as
a result of yesterday's activity, extreme Fire Danger now covers
most all of the forecast area.  Trans Pecos ERCs continue near the
90th percentile. Although the fire wx threat is a little lower
today, we are not out of the (dry) woods yet.

Sunday continues to shape up as another critical fire wx day,
confined mainly to the Guadalupes and adjacent plains, as a
secondary trough passes north of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  45  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  42  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  78  46  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  45  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          74  40  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  35  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           77  46  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         77  46  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           79  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

44/06/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-250830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
327 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 /227 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today, over all
of Southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas. A Red Flag Warning
is in effect.

Strong west winds will continue in the Guadalupe Mountains today. A
High Wind Warning remains in effect. Very windy conditions are also
expected again across all of Southeast New Mexico and most of West
Texas.  A Wind Advisory is in effect today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1127 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

TXZ047-051-052-240530-
Martin TX-Howard TX-Borden TX-
1127 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BORDEN...NORTHERN
HOWARD AND EASTERN MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1126 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Lenorah, or 12 miles northeast of Stanton, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Big Spring, Stanton, Ackerly, Vealmoor, Lenorah, Luther, Brown,
Fairview, Knott and Big Spring McMahon-Wrinkle Airpark.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 20 between mile markers 158 and 180.

LAT...LON 3238 10118 3212 10176 3230 10191 3252 10173
      3253 10169 3257 10169 3273 10156
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 231DEG 53KT 3230 10171

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