Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

985 
WGUS74 KMAF 010703
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
103 AM MDT TUE AUG 1 2017

NMC025-010730-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-170801T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lea NM-
103 AM MDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM MDT FOR LEA
COUNTY...

At 102 AM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have already 
fallen in portions of Lea county, with locally higher amounts in 
some locations. Flash flooding is expected to be ongoing as moderate 
rainfall continues.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Hobbs, Lovington, Eunice, Jal, Monument, Humble City, Eunice Airport,
Nadine, Jal Airport, Buckeye, Knowles, Oil Center, Bennett, Lea
County Regional Airport and Industrial Airpark.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 10306 3256 10306 3200 10313 3200 10372
      3305 10374

$$

84

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
555 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Next 24 hours will be fluid and messy across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico. Area radars show diurnally-driven convection
over the higher terrain, but this should diminish w/loss of
daytime heating. Of more concern will be a MCS that is forecast to
develop in ern NM and roll thru the region overnight. Models are
in fairly good agreement on timing, bringing the MCS thru SE NM
06-09Z, then SE thru West Texas 12Z-21Z Tue. Model soundings
differ as to cigs, so we'll stay VFR for now. However, frequent
updates will be possible, especially w/convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 527 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/

UPDATE...

Included Eddy County in the Flash Flood Watch as newest guidance
is indicating storms may build into the area from the west and
north over the next few hours. Heavy rain and localized flash
flooding is possible if storms move slowly or train over the same
areas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Low confidence in models as initialization of NAM12 could have been
better with precip to the n. Even though recent model runs have been
consistent indicating a MCS will develop in E-SE NM Plains tonight
and track se-s we are concerned that storms this AM will be
inhibitive to redevelopment late this PM and or evening? However
the impetus for the development of this advertised MCS can be
argued to be dynamic instead of daytime heating. OMEGA and DPVA in
the 7h-5h layer does show a well defined area of lift wrt
time/area. In the low levels the NAM12 is consistent too,
depicting that the MCS will feed into the mstr flux maxima/theta-e
ridge which favors core of MCS slowly propagating from Lea-Gaines
into Winkler Co. Another more brief period of heavy rain is
possible in wrn Eddy Co/GDP Mtns. Indications are still that the
MCS would tend to move slow. Supportive of this is difluent 85h-3h
thickness indicating some back-building potential? A lesser 2nd
round of storms will be possible late Tue PM when the main mid
level trof axis within nw flow aloft moves thru. Timing is fluid.
Yesterday data favored a precip axis w-e across the PB 09Z-15Z
Wed, but now earlier 00Z-06Z Wed for PB. NAEFS ensemble data
generally supports this too. In summary this amounts to a
potentially moderate impact heavy rain/flash flood event with
moderate forecast confidence. Currently Flash Flood Guidance
averages about 3.5" for the SE NM/NW PB, lower for Eddy County, of
course much lower for urban areas. Most of these areas haven't
had much rain in the last week or so. We are reluctant to issue a
flash flood watch, but with total local amounts to around 3" for
SE NM/NW PB flash flooding is certainly possible. We went as far
east as Dawson-Martin-Midland Counties, but Lea Co/NW-W PB are the
most favored. Most of the rain is expected in the tonight-Tue PM
time frame. Deeper mid level drying in wake of theta-e ridge
continues to favor Wed PM-Thur PM as down days. NW flow will
persist into next weekend and there are some indication of a
substantial shrtwv early Friday AM or late Friday night. Chance
PoPs will continue in the extended across the Trans Pecos thru the
forecast. The general temp trend from previous run in MOS is
upward toward normal, especially Thur onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  84  68  86 /  50  60  40  20
Carlsbad                       70  86  67  87 /  60  40  30  10
Dryden                         76  93  75  89 /  20  40  60  30
Fort Stockton                  73  87  66  86 /  30  60  60  30
Guadalupe Pass                 65  77  61  77 /  40  50  40  20
Hobbs                          67  83  64  84 /  80  40  20  10
Marfa                          66  83  64  80 /  20  50  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           72  85  66  87 /  60  60  40  20
Odessa                         72  85  66  87 /  60  60  40  20
Wink                           73  87  67  88 /  70  60  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch from 9 PM MDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning for Andrews-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Martin-
     Midland-Winkler.

&&

44/29/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
236 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-011945-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
236 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 /136 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered across southeast New
Mexico and southwest Texas through this evening. Some storms will
produce brief heavy rain and gusty winds with blowing dust possible.
Thunderstorms will become numerous to widespread in southeast New
Mexico and spread south into the northwest Permian Basin later
tonight. Persistent moderate to heavy rainfall is possible, which
could result in flooding/flash flooding, especially in urban and poor
drainage areas. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect tonight through
Tuesday morning for Lea county and the northwest and central Permian
Basin regions, where 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

On Tuesday, numerous thunderstorms look to continue across the
Permian Basin, shifting south Tuesday night. Heavy rainfall will
remain possible across these areas resulting in the possible flooding
of prone areas.

Though thunderstorms will decrease in coverage and rainfall will be
of lesser intensity, thunderstorm chances will continue across the
area through Saturday. Widespread severe weather is not expected,
but locally heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding will
remain possible due to previous rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
938 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2017

NMZ028-TXZ058-059-010330-
Eddy County Plains NM-Loving TX-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
938 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDDY...NORTHWESTERN
REEVES...NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON AND NORTHWESTERN LOVING COUNTIES
UNTIL 1030 PM CDT/930 PM MDT/...

At 938 PM CDT/838 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 12 miles west of Orla, moving north at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Orla, Red Bluff Reservoir, Whites City, Carlsbad Caverns National
Park and Red Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3157 10375 3158 10430 3218 10449 3221 10381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 176DEG 21KT 3185 10413

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
944 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2017

NMZ033-034-010430-
Southern Lea County NM-Central Lea County NM-
944 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEA COUNTY UNTIL
1030 PM MDT...

At 944 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles south of Halfway, or 27 miles west of Jal, moving north at 15
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Lea
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3253 10344 3200 10347 3200 10372 3252 10372
      3252 10377 3254 10377
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 178DEG 13KT 3226 10363

29