Wind Advisory 4, NWS Lubbock, TX

975 
WWUS74 KLUB 061744 AAA
NPWLUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 AM CST MON FEB 6 2017

...WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 6 PM...

.WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS
ALREADY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TO BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

TXZ021>023-027-070000-
/O.CON.KLUB.WI.Y.0004.170206T1800Z-170207T0000Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BAILEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...FARWELL...DIMMITT...
HART...TULIA...MULESHOE
1144 AM CST MON FEB 6 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...FROM NOON THROUGH SUNSET.

* WINDS...WESTERLY SUSTAINED BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
  45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT...PARTICULARLY FOR HIGH
  PROFILE VEHICLES ON NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED ROADWAYS. PATCHY
  BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. ADJUST TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACCORDINGLY.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
310 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...
A weak shortwave was working its way across western NM early this
morning while a surface low was developing over eastern CO/western
KS. These two features will combine to create a warm and windy day
for the forecast area. To preface, this won't be the windiest day we
have seen in recent weeks, but the wind combined with substantial
dry air will make for a critical fire weather day. Winds at H500 and
700 are not nearly as impressive as in recent weeks, though they
will suffice to bring strong winds across the northwestern two-
thirds of the forecast area this afternoon. The main wind max of
around 50 to 60 KT at H500 should begin to cross the southwestern TX
Panhandle around noon and spread east/southeastward through 0Z. This
area looks most favorable for the highest and most prolonged winds,
therefore, we went with a Wind Advisory beginning at 18Z for the
southwestern TX Panhandle counties. Winds should taper by 0Z,
however, H850 looks to stay perturbed through the night, thereby
keeping winds elevated through tomorrow morning. Moisture recovery
has been extremely slow on the Caprock overnight after a day where
many locations saw min RH values fall into the single digits. With
the strong westerly downslope winds this afternoon, expect another
extremely dry afternoon. Patchy blowing dust will be possible.

.LONG TERM...
Another morning with few changes to the long term portion of the
forecast. Evolution of the upper levels this week remains similar
for a number of runs in row. Zonal flow will transition to a more
amplified western ridge/eastern trough pattern followed by the
ridge moving eastward across the Plains states. Finally, an upper
level trough on the back side of the ridge will drop southward
through the intermountain west, closing off over Arizona or
southern California before moving further southward into
northwestern Mexico.

The sensible weather for the period will favor warm and breezy
conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. A modest cold front will move
through the forecast area Wednesday night with highs being knocked
back into the 60s for Thursday. That cool down will be brief as
the movement of the ridge overhead brings warm temperatures back
as well as some breezy southwest winds. Finally, as the western
trough cuts off another trough will move eastward across the
US/Canada border driving a cold front southward into the southern
Plains. Temperatures should finally return to seasonal norms at
that point. Previous model runs had painted some light
precipitation with the approaching trough, but now that the bulk
of the energy is being kept well to our west that should minimize
precip chances for Sunday to the point of removing the mention
that had been in the forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong westerly winds between 25-35 mph and gusts up to 45 will
combine with RH values falling into the lower teens to create Red
Flag conditions across all but the far southeastern Rolling Plains.
Winds are expected to increase across the southwestern TX Panhandle
around noon and spread east/southeastward throughout the afternoon.
Fuels are extremely dry across the region, adding to the fire
danger. In addition, afternoon temperatures will be extremely
warm...20 to 25 degrees above normal.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
TXZ021>042.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
TXZ021>023-027.

&&

74/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2017

TXZ021>044-061745-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1143 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WINDY CONDITIONS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS WELL.