Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Louisville, KY

177 
WGUS73 KLMK 101947
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
247 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2017

KYC183-102145-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-171010T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ohio KY-
247 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL OHIO COUNTY...

At 315 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported vehicles stuck in high 
water on Highway 69 near Hamlin Chapel Road. They also reported 
parts of Highway 62 toward McHenry are impassable. The Kentucky 
Mesonet station near Hartford has reported a little over 4 inches of 
rain. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Hartford, Beaver Dam, Centertown, Mchenry, Rockport, Windy Hill,
Jingo, Rosine, Sulphur Springs and Simmons.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3736 8712 3738 8709 3739 8710 3758 8678
      3739 8665 3727 8698 3729 8698 3730 8699
      3732 8699 3736 8703 3737 8707 3733 8711
      3733 8712 3734 8714

$$

RJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
232 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017

As of mid afternoon, a surface analysis depicted a low near St
Louis, Missouri. A warm front, which started this morning near the
Tennessee border, has now lifted north to almost the Ohio River
evident by a south wind shift and an increase in low level moisture
characterized by dewpoints in the low 70s. A cold front bisected the
states of Missouri and Arkansas, steadily marching east. Finally,
regional radar showed widespread showers with some embedded thunder
mainly along/west of I-65, slowly moving east/northeast.

Complex and messy weather will be the theme through tomorrow morning
until the front passes the region. Confidence is average to above
average in regard to the synoptic features. For the remainder of
this afternoon and evening, plan on widespread showers to move
across the area as this initial wave lifts through TN/KY into IN/OH.
There will be pockets of thunder along with pockets of heavier rain.
Can't rule out some ponding and poor drainage issues especially as
this moves into the Louisville metro for the evening rush commute
times.

Once this waves passes but still ahead of the cold front, there will
remain chances for scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder,
though the instability is very limited with loss of daytime heating.
The front doesn't pass through the area until overnight. By dawn
Wednesday, it should be along or just east of the I-75 corridor.
This will result in a west/east gradient in low temperatures. Those
remaining in the warm sector tonight will likely stay in the upper
60s to even low 70s in places while western areas drop into the
mid/upper 50s to lower 60s under strong cold air advection. Any
lingering showers should exit out of the area by mid morning
Wednesday.

Wrap around stratus will likely spread across southern Indiana and
parts of north central Kentucky tomorrow while southern areas see a
little more sunshine. The big story will be the return to more
seasonable temperatures and humidity with highs staying in the upper
60s to middle 70s.

High pressure will begin to work into the region Wednesday night
though the core of it will stay west along the MS River through
Thursday morning. There is some signal for fog and/or stratus to
form Wednesday night thanks to clearing skies, residual moisture,
and lighter winds. For now, added patchy fog wording to the
forecast. Plan on lows in the lower 50s.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017

For the end of the work week into the upcoming weekend, upper level
ridging is expected to build across the southeast US while a trough
and series of weather systems come out of the western US into the
central and northern Plains. This will bring moderating
temperatures, back into the lower 80s by this weekend.

The 10.12z forecast cycle continues to advertise a strong cold front
passage Sunday into Sunday night. Ahead of it, a tighter pressure
gradient and a well mixed boundary layer may produce gusty southwest
winds in the afternoon. Rain chances look to be confined mainly to
the afternoon and evening hours Sunday, though this could shift
either way depending on the frontal passage timing. Highs on Sunday
are likely to reach the upper 70s to lower/middle 80s, potentially
offset some by increased cloud cover compared to Saturday.

In its wake, the early to middle portions of next week look to have
refreshing autumn air as cool Canadian high pressure builds into the
lower Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. A model consensus puts
highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s with dry conditions Monday
through at least Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Complex forecast this period, with a warm frontal boundary slowly
moving through the region and plenty of moisture for it to work with
to generate showers and storms. The best chance for these will be
the first several hours of this forecast period, but then as the
lagging cold front approaches the region tonight, expect lowering
ceilings. These should hold out for most of the rest of the period,
with perhaps us returning to VFR thresholds under west winds by
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...ZT
Long Term...ZT
Aviation...RJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
239 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-111845-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
239 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 /139 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will continue through this evening, becoming scattered
late evening and overnight. The main hazard will be heavy rain and
localized flooding, especially in poor draining areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Sunday evening, though
organized severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
to the National Weather Service.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

ZT