Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1140 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Tropical storm Harvey is now located about 60 miles south of
Galveston and is moving slowly northeast. The latest NHC forecast
shows the storm moving slowly northeast over the next 24 to 36
hours, with a landfall along the SW LA coast near Cameron early
Wednesday. Main update this morning is to extend the Tropical
Storm Warning east to Morgan City, with storm surge inundation of
1 to 3 feet AGL. The primary risk will continue to be the
widespread unprecedented flooding across SE TX and SW LA.
Additional rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches are still possible
acrs southeast TX and parts of SW LA with amounts of 5 to 10
inches possible across the rest of SW and south central LA.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017/

AVIATION...
The main aviation impact today will once again be rain bands
associated with Tropical Storm Harvey as it progresses off to the
north and east. Local radar this morning shows two steadier rain
bands: one across SE Texas and another east of I-49. These
steadier rain bands have resulted in IFR ceilings and visibilities
at local terminals. MVFR conditions are expected to persist
through the morning at all TAF sites with IFR conditions across
the areas impacted by the steadier rainbands. KBPT is most likely
to experience these steadier rainbands throughout the morning.
Additionally, surface observations have been recording sustained
winds of 15-25 knots with gusts to near 30 knots this morning.
These easterly/northeasterly winds are expected to gradually
increase throughout the day as the pressure gradient associated
with Harvey increases across the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 518 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Weather map shows Tropical Storm Harvey centered about 135 miles
SSW of Port Arthur Texas this morning, moving east at 3 mph.
Maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Model consensus has shifted a
bit further east this morning, now expecting to bring the center
of Harvey over Cameron parish by late Wednesday morning or early
afternoon with winds about the same as this morning, not expected
to strengthen. Sustained tropical storm force winds will likely
be in the rainbands over the coastal waters into the coastal
Jefferson county and the coastal parishes from Intracoastal City
westward through Wednesday night.

The peak storm surge inundation shows the potential for 1-3 feet
above ground along the upper Texas coast from High Island eastward
along the Louisiana coast to Morgan City. A few locations along
this zone may see storm surge just above ground level. For this, a
Storm Surge Watch remains in effect for this area.

The main issue will be the continued historic rainfall flooding
with the continued assault of feeder bands rotating around Harvey.
15-25 inches of rainfall common so far over SE TX, with 10-12"
occurring since midnight across Jefferson county. Further east,
rainfall totals across SW Louisiana generally had 6-10 inches of
rainfall yesterday. The main focus will be across SE TX/SW LA
where a high risk of excessive rainfall will continue today.
Unfortunately, Areal rainfall amounts through Wednesday of 10 to
20 inches are expected across East Texas into Southwest Louisiana,
with 5 to 10 inches expected across Central and South Central
Louisiana. Intense rainfall rates will likely overwhelm local
drainage capacities in some areas.

Once Harvey makes landfall and move further inland, the greatest
threat of excessive rainfall should shift further northward, with
precipitation chances diminishing. Not totally confident on
lowering chances of rain too much on Friday as we often see
trailing bands of showers and thunderstorms when these systems
exit our region. The Labor Day weekend will likely see lingering
chances of showers and thunderstorm, generally 30-40% range.

DML

MARINE...
Tropical storm conditions are expected over the coastal waters
from intracoastal city westward. Tropical storm Harvey, currently
moving slowly east over the Gulf waters south of Freeport Texas,
is forecast to turn northeast on Tuesday and reach the Southwest
Louisiana coast near Cameron Louisiana late Wednesday morning or
early afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions, already occurring in
the form of occasional gusts, will become increasingly prevalent
today and continue well into Wednesday. In addition, A few more
days of widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected, and
some of the storms may be rotating and produce brief waterspouts.
Please see advisories from the National Hurricane Center for more
information and further forecasts on Harvey.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  72  82  71 / 100 100 100  80
LCH  81  75  81  74 / 100 100 100  80
LFT  83  76  85  75 / 100 100 100  70
BPT  78  74  79  73 / 100 100 100  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ052>055-073-074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ215.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-
     475.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
606 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
301100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
606 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Heavy rainfall from slowly moving Tropical Storm Harvey along the
Texas coast will produce several rounds of training showers and
thunderstorms across Southeast Texas, Central and Southern
Louisiana. A flash flood watch for the entire area continues.

A Tropical storm warning continues from Intracoastal City
Louisiana westward, mainly for the coastal parishes and counties.

A storm surge watch continues for the prolonged east to southeast
winds, and approaching landfall of Tropical Storm Harvey. The
peak storm surge inundation shows the potential for 1-3 feet above
ground along the upper Texas coast from High Island eastward
along the Louisiana coast to Morgan City. A few locations along
this zone may see storm surge just above ground level.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday
Tropical Storm Harvey is expected to make landfall along the
Southwest Louisiana coast late Wednesday morning or early afternoon.
Storm surge watch and tropical storm warning continues for same
locations as mentioned above through Wednesday. Continued heavy
rainfall from Tropical Storm Harvey will continue through Thursday,
with a continued flash flood watch through this time.

The chances of precipitation will slowly diminish Friday into the
Labor Day weekend and the entire system moves further inland and
weakens.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be required.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-301100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
606 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Heavy rainfall from slowly moving Tropical Storm Harvey along the
Texas coast will produce several rounds of training showers and
thunderstorms. A Tropical storm warning continues from
Intracoastal City, Louisiana westward, with a small craft
advisory eastward to Morgan City, Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday
Tropical Storm Harvey is expected to make landfall along the
Southwest Louisiana coast late Wednesday morning or early afternoon.
Tropical storm warning continues for same locations as mentioned
above through Wednesday. Continued heavy rainfall from Tropical
Storm Harvey will continue through Thursday.

The chances of precipitation will slowly diminish Friday into the
Labor Day weekend and the entire system moves further inland and
weakens.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
710 AM CDT TUE AUG 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FANNETT                 29.93N 94.25W
08/29/2017                   JEFFERSON          TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORTS ONE FOOT OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY 124.

&&

TWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1026 AM CDT TUE AUG 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S LA BELLE            29.84N 94.16W
08/29/2017                   JEFFERSON          TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TX DOT REPORTS SH73 WESTBOUND NEAR LABELLE RD IS CLOSED
            TO DO WATER OVER ROAD.

&&

RACKLEY