Alert archive / Puerto Rico / Flash Flood Warnings in 2017

Flash Flood Warning 125, NWS JSJ

October 7, 2017

NWS JSJ issued this flash flood warning at Oct 7, 2017, 2:59 PM CDT. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 7, 2017, 2:59 PM CDT (19:59 UTC)
Expired: Oct 7, 2017, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS JSJ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The text

As transmitted.

884 
WGCA52 TJSJ 071959
FFWSJU
PRC081-083-131-072300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0125.171007T1959Z-171007T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
359 PM AST SAT OCT 7 2017

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Las Marias Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Lares Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  San Sebastian Municipality in Puerto Rico...

* Until 700 PM AST

* At 358 PM AST, satellite estimates indicated thunderstorms
  producing heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is
  expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  San Sebastian, Lares, Hato Arriba and Juncal. 

Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause mud slides near
steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and
other loose materials.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 1838 6694 1839 6693 1836 6690 1837 6689
      1834 6682 1828 6683 1823 6682 1821 6684
      1817 6683 1821 6696 1819 6702 1824 6706
      1825 6708 1827 6704 1831 6705 1833 6704
      1835 6705 1839 6703

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS JSJ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 7, 12:44 PM CDT, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 7, 12:44 PM CDT, 2 hours 15 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
144 PM AST Sat Oct 7 2017

.AVIATION...
A cluster of thunderstorms has developed across western Puerto
Rico and will continue to slowly push westward throughout the
afternoon and evening. Gusty winds near 30 knots, frequent
lightning, and reduced visibilities/ceilings are possible with
these storms. Another round of showers/thunderstorms are likely
across the main island of Puerto Rico tomorrow, primarily after
15Z. Outside of the convection, VFR conditions are expected
throughout the period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL/

SHORT TERM...Saturday through Monday

Partly to variably cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and
the US Virgin Islands during the overnight and early morning
hours. Overnight temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to mid 70s
across higher elevations with upper 70s to low 80s across lower
elevations. Winds were light and variable.

Although low level moisture is expected to erode somewhat during the
weekend under a weak mid to upper level ridge, still expect induced
showers and thunderstorms across  portions of Puerto Rico each
afternoon. The aforementioned activity is expected over central and
northwest Puerto Rico as well as portions of the San Juan Metro
Area. In addition, overnight passing showers across windward areas
cannot be ruled out. Soils are already saturated, therefore,. any
prolonged period of heavy rainfall may result in urban and stream
flooding.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.

A broad mid to upper level trough is expected to prevail across the
central Atlantic and into the eastern Caribbean Monday through
Wednesday. This feature will allow deep tropical moisture to pool
across the forecast area.  As the trough aloft moves westward, a mid
to upper level ridge is then expected to build from the east.
Therefore, Monday through at least Wednesday under trofiness aloft
and plenty of tropical moisture, expect unsettled weather conditions
across the forecast area with periods of heavy rainfall. Soils are
already saturated and many of the rivers and small streams are
running above normal levels. Therefore, there is a high risk of
river and small stream flooding as well as mudslides in areas of
steep terrain early next week.

A more seasonal weather pattern is then expected by the end of the
workweek and into the weekend as a ridge pattern builds aloft.

MARINE...Light to gentle E/SE breeze will prevail on the south side
of the subtropical ridge located across the northern Atlantic.
Showers and thunderstorms will occur each day as deep tropical
moisture remains in place. North to northeast swells will continue
to enhance local seas on the Atlantic side of the islands through
Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  81  89  81  88 /  30  40  30  70
STT  82  85  82  84 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 7, 7:44 AM CDT, 7 hours 15 minutes before

Perspectivas sobre condiciones peligrosas del tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
Emitido por Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia Miami FL
816 AM AST sabado 7 de octubre de 2017

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-081230-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
816 AM AST sabado 7 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

Aguaceros y tronadas con lluvias fuertes y vientos en rafagas breves
son posibles principalmente a traves del centro y oeste interior de
Puerto Rico esta tarde. Cualquier lluvia fuerte adicional podria
causar impactos adicionales de inundaciones repentinas.

Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas a lo largo de
la costa norte de Puerto Rico.

Oleaje de hasta 6 pies es posible sobre las aguas lejanas a la costa
del Atlantico al norte de PuertoRico. Operadores de embarcaciones
pequenas deben ejercer precaucion.

.Dias Dos a Siete...domingo a viernes

Aguaceros y tronadas son posibles cada dia con lluvias fuertes
localmente temprano la semana proxima, lo cual podria causar
impactos adicionales de inundaciones repentinas.

Es probable que un riesgo elevado de corrientes marinas continue
temprano la semana proxima a lo largo de la costa norte.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones
o corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San
Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-081230-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del
Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
816 AM AST sabado 7 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas para la mayoria
de las playas de Santa Cruz hoy.

.Dias Dos a Siete...domingo a viernes

Es probable que un riesgo elevado de corrientes marinas continue
hasta el domingo para Santa Cruz.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

Activacion de observadores no sera necesaria.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 1:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
245 PM AST SAT OCT 7 2017

PRZ008>010-071930-
Northwest-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Western Interior-
245 PM AST SAT OCT 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LAS MARIAS...LARES...SAN
SEBASTIAN...SOUTHEASTERN ISABELA...NORTHWESTERN ADJUNTAS...MOCA...
QUEBRADILLAS...EASTERN ANASCO...CAMUY...NORTH CENTRAL MARICAO...
NORTHEASTERN MAYAGUEZ...WESTERN HATILLO...WEST CENTRAL UTUADO AND
EASTERN AGUADA MUNICIPALITIES...

At 245 PM AST, a strong thunderstorm was located over San Sebastian,
moving east at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lares, Hatillo, San Sebastian, Camuy, Moca, Quebradillas, Hato
Arriba, Juncal, Quebrada, Piedra Gorda, Cacao and Espino.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 1850 6680 1820 6680 1819 6712 1839 6713
      1850 6683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 256DEG 6KT 1834 6695

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 1:48 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
248 PM AST SAT OCT 7 2017

PRZ005-006-008-009-071930-
Northwest-North Central-Central Interior-Western Interior-
248 PM AST SAT OCT 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN VEGA BAJA...
FLORIDA...BARCELONETA...NORTHWESTERN MOROVIS...ARECIBO...NORTHEASTERN
JAYUYA...CIALES...NORTHWESTERN OROCOVIS...HATILLO...UTUADO...
NORTHWESTERN ADJUNTAS AND MANATI MUNICIPALITIES...

At 247 PM AST, a strong thunderstorm was located over La Alianza, or
near Florida. the storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Arecibo, Ciales, Florida, Manati, Utuado, Barceloneta, Pajonal, La
Alianza, Coto Norte, Rafael Capo, Bajadero, Imbery, La Luisa, Rafael
Gonzalez, Barahona, Tiburones, Animas, Carrizales, Garrochales and
Sabana Hoyos.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 1848 6648 1849 6643 1826 6646 1820 6681
      1850 6681 1849 6671 1851 6661
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 000DEG 0KT 1841 6664

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 1:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

Comunicado Especial sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
157 PM AST sabado 7 de octubre de 2017

PRZ005-007>010-071845-
Noroeste-Norte Central-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Oeste Interior-Ponce
y Vecindad-
157 PM AST sabado 7 de octubre de 2017

...UNA TRONADA FUERTE AFECTARA LOS SIGUIENTES MUNICIPIOS DE PUERTO
RICO...SABANA GRANDE...LAS MARIAS...LARES...SAN SEBASTIAN...
ARECIBO...ISABELA...ADJUNTAS...YAUCO...QUEBRADILLAS...CAMUY...
MARICAO...SAN GERMAN...HATILLO Y UTUADO...

A las 1:56 PM AST, una fuerte tronada estaba localizada sobre Lares,
moviendose hacia el oeste a 15 mph.

Vientos en rafagas de 40 mph son posibles con esta tronada.

Lugares que seran afectados incluyen... Arecibo, Adjuntas,
Quebradillas, Utuado, Lares, San Sebastian, Camuy, Hatillo, Rafael
Capo, Rafael Gonzalez, Bajadero, Maricao, Juncal, Quebrada, Cayuco,
Piedra Gorda, Cacao, Corcovado y Mora.

Lluvias torrenciales tambien estan ocurriendo con estas tormentas, y
podrian causar inundaciones localizdas. No intente conducir su
vehiculo a traves de carreteras inundadas.

Rayos frecuentes de nube a suelo estan ocurriendo con esta tormenta.
Los rayos pueden afectar a 10 millas de distancia de la tronada.
Busque refugio seguro dentro de un vehiculo o edificio.

Local storm report, Oct 7, 2:08 PM CDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SAT OCT 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     FLASH FLOOD      UTUADO                  18.27N 66.71W
10/07/2017                   UTUADO             PR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES REPORTED IN UTUADO, 10
            HOUSES AFFECTED IN URB SAN JOSE AND THE UTUADO HOSPITAL
            IS CURRENTLY FLOODED. ALSO, ROAD 10 FROM UTUADO TO

            ADJUNTAS WAS IMPACTED BY MUDSLIDE AND ROAD IS IMPASSABLE.

&&

DSANCHEZ

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 2:50 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

Comunicado Especial sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
245 PM AST sabado 7 de octubre de 2017

PRZ005-007>010-071845-
Noroeste-Norte Central-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Oeste Interior-
245 PM AST sabado 7 de octubre de 2017

...UNA TRONADA FUERTE AFECTARA LOS SIGUIENTES MUNICIPIOS DE PUERTO
RICO...LAS MARIAS...LARES...SAN SEBASTIAN...ISABELA...ADJUNTAS...
MOCA...QUEBRADILLAS...ANASCO...CAMUY...MARICAO... MAYAGUEZ...
HATILLO...UTUADO Y AGUADA...

A las 2:45 PM AST, una fuerte tronada estaba localizada sobre San
Sebastian, moviendose hacia el este a 5 mph.

Vientos en rafagas de 40 mph son posibles con esta tronada.

Lugares que seran afectados incluyen... Lares, Hatillo, San
Sebastian, Camuy, Moca, Quebradillas, Hato Arriba, Juncal, Quebrada,
Piedra Gorda, Cacao y Espino.

Lluvias torrenciales tambien estan ocurriendo con estas tormentas, y
podrian causar inundaciones localizdas. No intente conducir su
vehiculo a traves de carreteras inundadas.

Rayos frecuentes de nube a suelo estan ocurriendo con esta tormenta.
Los rayos pueden afectar a 10 millas de distancia de la tronada.
Busque refugio seguro dentro de un vehiculo o edificio.

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 2:51 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

Comunicado Especial sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
248 PM AST sabado 7 de octubre de 2017

PRZ005-006-008-009-071930-
Noroeste-Norte Central-Central Interior-Oeste Interior-
248 PM AST sabado 7 de octubre de 2017

...UNA TRONADA FUERTE AFECTARA LOS SIGUIENTES MUNICIPIOS DE PUERTO
RICO...VEGA BAJA... FLORIDA...BARCELONETA...MOROVIS...ARECIBO...
JAYUYA...CIALES...OROCOVIS...HATILLO...UTUADO...ADJUNTAS Y MANATI...

A las 2:47 PM AST, una fuerte tronada estaba localizada sobre La
Alianza, cerca de Florida. La tormenta esta casi estacionaria.

Vientos en rafagas de 40 mph son posibles con esta tronada.

Lugares que seran afectados incluyen... Arecibo, Ciales, Florida,
Manati, Utuado, Barceloneta, Pajonal, La Alianza, Coto Norte, Rafael
Capo, Bajadero, Imbery, La Luisa, Rafael Gonzalez, Barahona,
Tiburones, Animas, Carrizales, Garrochales y Sabana Hoyos.

Lluvias torrenciales tambien estan ocurriendo con estas tormentas, y
podrian causar inundaciones localizdas. No intente conducir su
vehiculo a traves de carreteras inundadas.

Rayos frecuentes de nube a suelo estan ocurriendo con esta tormenta.
Los rayos pueden afectar a 10 millas de distancia de la tronada.
Busque refugio seguro dentro de un vehiculo o edificio.

The office that day

Everything else NWS JSJ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 6, 8:10 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	JSJ	3 hr
Oct 7, 11:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JSJ	48 min
Oct 7, 12:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JSJ	50 min
Oct 7, 12:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JSJ	28 min
Oct 7, 12:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JSJ	50 min
Oct 7, 12:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JSJ	48 min
Oct 7, 1:34 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JSJ	3 hr
Oct 7, 1:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JSJ	45 min
Oct 7, 1:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JSJ	42 min
Oct 7, 2:13 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JSJ	6 hr
Oct 7, 2:14 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JSJ	4 hr
Oct 7, 2:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JSJ	3 hr
Oct 7, 5:16 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JSJ	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Puerto Rico, 2017 Every flash flood warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.