Alert archive / Puerto Rico / Flash Flood Warnings in 2017

Flash Flood Warning 115, NWS JSJ

September 23, 2017

NWS JSJ issued this flash flood warning at Sep 23, 2017, 12:58 PM CDT. It was in force for 5 days. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 23, 2017, 12:58 PM CDT (17:58 UTC)
Expired
Sep 28, 2017, 1:00 PM CDT
In force
5 days
Issued by
NWS JSJ
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Moderate

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The text

As transmitted.

143 
WGCA52 TJSJ 231758
FFWSJU
PRC071-115-240600-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0115.170923T1758Z-170924T0600Z/
/00000.2.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
158 PM AST SAT SEP 23 2017

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  A Dam Failure in...
  Eastern Isabela Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Western Quebradillas Municipality in Puerto Rico...

* Until 200 AM AST Sunday

* At 155 PM AST, dam operators continued to report the threat of a 
  failure of the Guajataca Dam, potentially causing life-threatening 
  flash flooding downstream on Rio Guajataca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe. Stay away from evacuated areas until told by 
emergency officials it is safe to return.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6694 1845 6695 1843 6693 1841 6693
      1840 6692 1839 6692 1839 6694 1841 6696
      1842 6695 1844 6697 1846 6698 1850 6697

$$

KScharf
5 follow-up statements
511 
WGCA52 TJSJ 240550
FFWSJU
PRC071-115-241800-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.W.0115.000000T0000Z-170924T1800Z/
/00000.3.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
150 AM AST SUN SEP 24 2017

The National Weather Service in San Juan has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  A Dam Failure in...
  Northeastern Isabela Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Central Quebradillas Municipality in Puerto Rico...

* Until 200 PM AST Sunday

* At 119 AM AST,  dam operators continued to report the threat of a 
  failure of the Guajataca Dam, potentially causing life-threatening 
  flash flooding downstream on Rio Guajataca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe. Stay away from evacuated areas until told by 
emergency officials it is safe to return.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6694 1845 6695 1843 6693 1841 6693
      1840 6692 1839 6692 1839 6694 1841 6696
      1842 6695 1844 6697 1846 6698 1850 6697

$$

Stockton
238 
WGCA52 TJSJ 241756
FFWSJU
PRC071-115-251800-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.W.0115.000000T0000Z-170925T1800Z/
/00000.2.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
156 PM AST SUN SEP 24 2017

The National Weather Service in San Juan has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  A Dam Failure in...
  Eastern Isabela Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Western Quebradillas Municipality in Puerto Rico...

* Until 200 PM AST Monday

* At 155 PM AST, the risk of failure of the Guajataca Dam continued, 
  which would potentially cause life-threatening flash flooding 
  downstream on Rio Guajataca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe. Stay away from evacuated areas until told by 
emergency officials it is safe to return.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6694 1845 6695 1843 6693 1841 6693
      1840 6692 1839 6692 1839 6694 1841 6696
      1842 6695 1844 6697 1846 6698 1850 6697

$$

KScharf
667 
WGCA52 TJSJ 251747
FFWSJU
PRC071-115-261800-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.W.0115.000000T0000Z-170926T1800Z/
/00000.U.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
147 PM AST MON SEP 25 2017

The National Weather Service in San Juan has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  A Dam Failure in...Eastern Isabela Municipality in Puerto Rico... 
  Western Quebradillas Municipality in Puerto Rico...

* Until 200 PM AST Tuesday

* At 145 PM AST, the risk of failure of the Guajataca Dam continued, 
  which would potentially cause life-threatening flash flooding 
  downstream on Rio Guajataca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe. Stay away from evacuated areas until told by 
emergency officials it is safe to return.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6694 1845 6695 1843 6693 1841 6693
      1840 6692 1839 6692 1839 6694 1841 6696
      1842 6695 1844 6697 1846 6698 1850 6697

$$

KELLY
973 
WGCA52 TJSJ 261744
FFWSJU
PRC071-115-271800-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.W.0115.000000T0000Z-170927T1800Z/
/00000.U.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
144 PM AST TUE SEP 26 2017

The National Weather Service in San Juan has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  A Dam Failure in...
  Northeastern Isabela Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Central Quebradillas Municipality in Puerto Rico...

* Until 200 PM AST Wednesday

* At 143 PM AST, the risk of failure of the Guajataca Dam continued, 
  which would potentially cause life-threatening flash flooding 
  downstream on Rio Guajataca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe. Stay away from evacuated areas until told by 
emergency officials it is safe to return.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6694 1845 6695 1843 6693 1841 6693
      1840 6692 1839 6692 1839 6694 1841 6696
      1842 6695 1844 6697 1846 6698 1850 6697

$$

RAG
140 
WGCA52 TJSJ 271736
FFWSJU
PRC071-115-281800-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.W.0115.000000T0000Z-170928T1800Z/
/00000.2.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
136 PM AST WED SEP 27 2017

The National Weather Service in San Juan has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  A Dam Failure in...
  Northeastern Isabela Municipality in Puerto Rico...
  Central Quebradillas Municipality in Puerto Rico...

* Until 200 PM AST Thursday

* At 134 PM AST, the risk of failure of the Guajataca Dam continued, 
  which would potentially cause life-threatening flash flooding 
  downstream on Rio Guajataca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe. Stay away from evacuated areas until told by 
emergency officials it is safe to return.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6694 1845 6695 1843 6693 1841 6693
      1840 6692 1839 6692 1839 6694 1841 6696
      1842 6695 1844 6697 1846 6698 1850 6697

$$

RAG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS JSJ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 23, 7:07 AM CDT, 5 hours 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 23, 7:07 AM CDT, 5 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service MIAMI FL
807 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

.AVIATION...
Southeasterly flow will continue, with higher terrain and south
facing slopes of Puerto Rico favored for periodic development of
convection. Satellite imagery indicates a moist air mass in place
with plenty of mid level cloud cover, but VFR conditions expected
to prevail at the terminals, outside of passing scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued by National Weather Service MIAMI FL/

SHORT TERM...Deep tropical moisture coupled with a south to
southeast flow will keep precipitable water values well over 2
inches through the weekend. Scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms will persist, and the high precipitable water
values ups the potential for heavy rainfall.

Any additional rainfall that Puerto Rico receives will continue to
aggravate the ongoing flooding on many of the rivers. Also, there
is standing water away from the rivers in many locations as well.
Mudslides have occurred across the island and will likely
continue if additional rainfall is received. Thus, in coordination
with the office in San Juan, we will keep the Flash Flood Watch
up across all of Puerto Rico through 8 am.

It is difficult to ascertain conditions in the area as nearly all
communications links are down. However, some gauges continue to
report. Some river and stream levels are slowly falling but still
remain in flood.

Heat Index values will begin to rise at or above 100 for the
weekend. This will make recovery efforts difficult and overall
living unpleasant as electricity remains out across the island.

LONG TERM...The pattern will change Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Flow will become easterly and precipitable water values will drop
to around 1.75 inches. This will bring more seasonable winds and
relatively drier conditions to the forecast area.

&&

.MARINE...Small Craft Advisories will be discontinued. Showers
and thunderstorms with heavy rain, locally higher winds and waves,
and reduced visibilities will be possible through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  81  86  80 /  30  30  30  30
STT  83  82  83  81 /  30  40  30  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 23, 4:36 AM CDT, 8 hours 22 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service MIAMI FL
536 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-240815-
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-
North Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Nortwest-
Western Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
The nearshore and off shore Atlantic and Caribbean Coastal Waters-
402 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Puerto Rico and the adjacent
Atlantic Coastal Waters.

.Day One...Today and Tonight

A Flood Warning remains in effect through this afternoon for most of
the north central, central, northwest, and southwest portions of the
island. See FLWSJU for details.

.Days Two through Seven...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-240815-
St. Thomas St. John adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Nearshore Atlantic and adjacent Caribbean Coastal Waters-
402 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the U.S. Virgin Islands and the
ADJACENT Coastal Waters.

.Day One...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.Days Two through Seven...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

The office that day

Everything else NWS JSJ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 22, 7:05 PM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyJSJ18 hr
Sep 23, 4:35 AM CDTAreal Flood WarningJSJ12 hr
Sep 23, 4:34 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningJSJ24 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Puerto Rico, 2017Every flash flood warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.