Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Indianapolis, IN

562 
WWUS53 KIND 012026
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
426 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

INC045-165-171-012035-
/O.CAN.KIND.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-170801T2100Z/
Fountain IN-Warren IN-Vermillion IN-
426 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FOUNTAIN...
SOUTHWESTERN WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN VERMILLION COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Indianapolis.

LAT...LON 4038 8753 4030 8722 4007 8739 4011 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 198DEG 11KT 4021 8745 

$$

MK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
359 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Active weather is in store for central Indiana for the next few
days with a front nearby. After the front passes late Thursday
night temperatures will drop to below normal for the weekend.
Another storm system will arrive to end the weekend and start the
next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This evening and tonight/...

Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be seen on radar across
much of central Indiana at 330 pm EDT, with only isolated storms
(if any) across the southwestern counties. These diurnally driven
storms will continue to develop and slowly move NNE, with
individual cells pulsing up and then dissipating. Due to the slow
movement, they will produce locally heavy rainfall and stronger
storms could see some small hail as well in addition to lightning.

These storms should weaken within the next few hours and dissipate
completely within a couple of hours of sunset. The rest of the
night should be relatively quiet, but could see some patchy fog
near daybreak anywhere that gets much rain this afternoon/evening.
Guidance low temperatures were very similar and thus have high
confidence in lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...

Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

The short term will be active with initially a weak front stalled
northwest of the area that will move through on Thursday night.
On Wednesday expect to see similar conditions to today, but with
less influence from the high pressure to limit coverage. Thus went
with high chance pops and scattered coverage wording for the
afternoon. Should see conditions dry out again Wednesday night
with these being diurnally forced.

On Thursday should see some additional upper forcing arrive, and
this will increase the chance for more organized convection. The
front will pass through late Thursday night, and from late
Thursday afternoon through Thursday night should be the best
chances for widespread precipitation and thunderstorm chances.
Could see some isolated strong to severe storms, but with the
frontal timing now occurring later Thursday night this may help
limit the severe threat.

Storms will move out of the area Friday morning and then dry
weather should start to build in. High temperatures will drop
significantly Friday into the mid 70s and temps could fall during
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Cool and dry weather initially in the wake of the frontal passage
for the weekend under the influence of a broad upper trough will
transition back to an active and unsettled pattern.

An unusually strong upper low for this time of year will dive into
the Great Lakes by Friday night...serving to amplify and
strengthen the upper trough over much of the eastern part of the
country. With high pressure at the surface...dry weather with
pleasant temperatures will continue Saturday as highs remain in
the 70s. The high will drift off to the east Sunday with return
flow developing ahead of a sharp upper wave poised to drop into
the region for Sunday night and Monday. A frontal boundary will
accompany this feature with chances for showers and storms
increasing through the period as a result.

Current trends in the long term guidance suggestive of the
frontal boundary moving far enough south of central Indiana to
allow for largely dry weather for Tuesday before the frontal
boundary returns north into the Ohio Valley just beyond the 7 day
for midweek...with potential fro rain and thunderstorms resuming.
Highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s will be common through early
next week. The hot weather that often is a staple during the first
half of August are nowhere to be found on the horizon at this
time either as trends support continued influence of troughing
aloft east of the Mississippi River through late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 011800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 114 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Scattered convection is developing cross central Illinois and
northern Indiana, but much of central Indiana remains storm free
as of 1 pm EDT. Based on more stability from high pressure to the
south and east, will leave any thunder mention out of KIND and
KBMG as coverage, if any, near those locations should be isolated
at worst this afternoon and early evening. Some storms are within
20 miles of KHUF at this time, so will include a VCTS there
starting in around an hour or so, and will follow a similar plan
for KLAF. This convection is diurnal and should dissipate this
evening so will drop any mention around 23-1z. If any of the sites
do get rain, they have a better chance at developing overnight
fog. At this time KLAF appears to have the highest chances for
fog based on guidance and soundings, but KHUF and KBMG could have
chances as well, mainly between 9 and 13z.

Tomorrow afternoon looking at more chances for scattered showers
and thunderstorms, but too low confidence in location and timing
to include in the extended portion of the KIND TAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...CP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
327 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-021000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
327 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

Hazards: Gusty winds, small hail, brief downpours, and frequent
lightning.

Timing: This afternoon and evening.

Discussion: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon and evening as an upper wave interacts with a warm, moist
and unstable atmosphere.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Outlook: Thunderstorms are possible at times Wednesday through
Friday morning and then again Sunday through Monday evening. Some of
the storms could become severe Thursday and Thursday night. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the main severe threats. Any thunderstorm
is capable of brief heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning.

Discussion: A cold front will move across central Indiana Thursday
night into Friday morning. The front will interact with a warm, moist
and unstable atmosphere and trigger thunderstorms with the best
chance Thursday night. Meanwhile, an upper wave will spark
additional storms Sunday through Monday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
341 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

INZ039-047-012030-
Hamilton IN-Marion IN-
341 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MARION AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 341 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carmel, or 8 miles north of Indianapolis, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Indianapolis, Carmel, Fishers, Noblesville, Westfield, Cicero,
Sheridan, Meridian Hills, Williams Creek, Crows Nest, North Crows
Nest, Castleton, Morse Reservoir and Broad Ripple.

LAT...LON 4014 8589 3983 8608 3989 8625 3993 8625
      3993 8624 4019 8624
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 189DEG 14KT 3991 8612

MK